tornadotony
29 Mar 2018
Re: API data gives a March red flag No agenda Shugg. The caveat was seeing a lower low and that has not happened this week when I thought it was probable. I was looking right for just one day. $80 oil suggests continued weakness in USD. Otherwise we have some real inflation coming down the proverbial pipeline. Tony
shugg1e
28 Mar 2018
Re: API data gives a March red flag oil to hit $80 this year Tony your being far to cautious again or you have an agenda Tullow is on a nice uptrend and i dont see anything to change that at preasent
brummell
28 Mar 2018
Re: API data gives a March red flag Tony, jury is still out on that I think. Plenty of opinions around that say that the oil market is already in balance and that surpluses and deficits are just part of normal life and of reducing relevance:[link] not the ceiling, but rather the floor of the pricing range that actually determines the direction of movement.Once the dust settles, if the floor is rising, so are the pricing expectations.That is what we have at the moment. And that’s all we need to make money with targeted moves."The main reason for recent volatility is Trump. Does anyone else think it strange that he makes a major market moving announcement before the US markets close and then reverses it before the next open (e.g. budget veto)?People just need to focus on the fact that increasing demand means higher reserves. Oil will be superseded but not for quite a while yet imho. If you look at the numbers renewables are nowhere near filling the gap that would be left by fossil fuels. Electric vehicles still only amount to something like 0.2% of vehicles globally and oil is used for more than just gasoline. Electric vehicles have a way to go in terms of range (look at the problems with the new 40 Kwh Nissan leaf) and the charging structure and speed of charge aren't there yet, especially in less developed areas. TLW is reducing debt rapidly and has some hot property and prospects. The main issues are imho related to what happens to the global influences and the odds are pretty well even there and probably in favour of oil when you take account of issues like Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Libya etc. etc.
Cashman103
28 Mar 2018
Re: API data gives a March red flag Sterling recovering against the dollar and euro will be bearish for the FTSE. FTSE last week was down to its 1999 level.
tornadotony
27 Mar 2018
API data gives a March red flag 5M barrels stock piled. Nearly 9M for all of March. API barrels mounting up implies slower USA growth and lower PMIs adding to that view. Large numbers of defaults on USA car loans starting to hit those who loaned out the funds as the interest rates go up. I suspect a pull back on the oil price to happen as we come out of a cold winter.Dangerous time for Tullow is April to middle of August. I suspect a repeat of 2017 in the stock price. If this starts to form lower highs than the chart will be supporting that view.Tony(Holding no positions on Tullow at this time)
MisterHarry
27 Mar 2018
Russia The Yanks are trying to isolate Ruskies. Would one of the reasons be, that it is making some friends in the Middle East, and with OPEC in particular. .................India made the claim that every car sold by 2030 will be powered by electricity get it is spending tens of billions of dollars (trillions of rupees ) building new oil refineries .................Tesla stock taking a bit of a hammering this month,down 8% today.......Oil stocks are unloved at the moment, that will change soon.
brummell
27 Mar 2018
Re: Bouncy Hobby, imho the shorters push the price into a lower trading range because of (a) the initial (traded) short selling that artificially increases the supply of stock in the market and (b) trading the price down when closing their position. (Don't tell me that those with lots of other people's money to play with don't do such things.)The volatility you refer to is a consequence of (1) the above (2) the volatility of the oil price and (3) general stock market volatility. TLW has adapted to the low oil price and will be able to pay off its debt more rapidly at higher oil prices. TLW is ok at $50 oil and at $70 plus it is in clover. Oil is up so TLW is up. Those short sellers who have left it too late and are trading hard to restrain the price now are doing the long buyers a big favour.All imho and dyor.
MyHobby
26 Mar 2018
Bouncy Bounces around this one and cannot hold onto intraday gains. A facile response would be: "oh, it's the shorters" but surely it's more than that?D
brummell
23 Mar 2018
Re: Short positions A big drop in the declared shorts today, down from 4.19% to 3.60% thanks to Millennium International who dropped below the 0.50% declaration threshold to 0.43% on 21/03/2017, so once again a late declaration. We are now left with just 4 declared short positions, Capital Fund Management at 0.99% (declared 06/03/2018)Key Group Holdings (Cayman) Ltd. at 1.49% (declared 14/02/2018)Linden Advisors at 0.57% (declared 12/02/2018)Odey at 0.55% (declared 24/01/2018).
Shotry
23 Mar 2018
Closed out my last 3 positions for around 12p. I want to reduce my exposures for the weekend
Shotry
22 Mar 2018
Re: added long I had a limit sell for 195 that didn't trigger last night, that's triggered now. I dropped 25% of my holding for about 12 pence.
Shotry
21 Mar 2018
Re: added long Hidden divergence is such a great signal. Anyway 194.7 is pretty close to 195.
Shotry
20 Mar 2018
Re: added long I have a hidden bullish divergence on the daily 1433 stoch on TLW, doesn't always work but it is a high probability signal. Often leads to a pop up. Might see us up to and past 195 in the very near future. But then again, it might not.
brummell
20 Mar 2018
Ghana success Ghana is looking set to be the world's fastest growing economy and TLW is well placed at the point of focus to do farm-out deals and retain income:[link]
brummell
20 Mar 2018
Re: $650m bonds issue (strike that quest... Interesting pov cash, but it isn't new debt, its a rearrangement of existing debt. Surely it's just TLW taking advantage of its improving credit rating from the agencies and possibly a step in escaping covenants and consultations that hamper the business decision making process. Good businesses are always better run by the management for the shareholders rather than by banks for the banks. I can't see that the issue of bonds will have any affect on the resumption of dividends; the management has clearly stated that as being on the agenda.
