Tullow Oil Forum

Short interest in TLW now down to 3% - the bears have surely moved on from TLW now - suggests there is genuine support for the price around here?

$800 m worth of bonds contracted - $150 m more than target. That has to be a massive vote of confidence in TLW - SP has to re-rate from here surely??

London, 22 January 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today upgraded Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow")'s Corporate Family Rating (CFR) to B1 from B2 and probability of default rating (PDR) to B1-PD from B2-PD. Concurrently, the ratings on its USD650 million 2020 and USD650 million 2022 senior unsecured global notes were upgraded to B3 from Caa1. The outlook on all Tullow's ratings was changed to stable from positive. RATINGS RATIONALE The upgrade of the rating to B1 from B2 mainly reflects all the positive developments in 2017 which strengthened the financial profile of the company. Moody's expects adjusted gross debt/EBITDA to fall to around 3.2x in 2017 after peaking at 5.5x in 2016, mainly due to higher production from TEN and higher oil prices. The deleveraging was also a result of the successful rights issue raising net proceeds of $721 million in March 2017 which allowed the company to reduce debt. The company's liquidity profile was also strengthened after the successful refinancing of the Reserve Based Lending (RBL) facility in November 2017 with a three year grace period until October 2020. The B1 rating reflects the stronger financial and liquidity profile which should provide the company with greater operational flexibility to grow the business and consider the acceleration of investment in projects and selective growth opportunities. The upgrade of the rating to B1 reflects (a) its solid business profile with sizeable oil and gas resource base (b) its growing low cost production offshore Ghana, with TEN fields ramping-up in 2017-18 (c) successful exploration programme and strong execution track-record, with significant oil discoveries in Uganda and Kenya, that underpin the company's long-term production growth trajectory, and (d) proactive steps taken by the company to manage its liquidity position in 2017 and a prudent hedging programme which covers approximately 60% of its oil sales each year. However, Tullow's rating demonstrates a linkage to the sovereign rating of Ghana (B3, stable) given its sizable country exposure expected to account for around 69% of production in 2017 and therefore a further upgrade of the B1 rating is unlikely.

Where is Brummel nowadays. Miss his posts

BofA Merrill Lynch upgrades Tullow on back of debt refinancing ... about time someone gave them credit ... Tullow has to be undervalued now with that major risk removed ... Target price 250p acc. to article in Irish Times this eve.

BassCadet: a big stumbling block to Hydrogen as with other "green" technologies is that it takes a lot of energy to provide them. By virtue of the fact that H2 is a good fuel - i.e. gives off lots of energy in its exothermic reaction with O2 also means that it takes energy to isolate it - 2nd law of thermodynamics etc so no free lunch - it's not found floating around in nature too much as it likes to combine with other substances but where does the energy come from to isolate it or reform it from other compounds? Fossil fuels, so how is that conundrum to be solved?

The only problem is once oil goes above $50 the US producers will come back in so what price for TLW corresponds to $50? That is the value at which the TLW sp is likely to settle in the near term and possibly beyond

TLW is obviously totally correlated to the price of oil based on recent evidence but don't despair - "Goldman, like most analysts, sees a dip in output from U.S. shale producers as the key to higher oil prices. A ramp up in shale oil output over the past year has reduced U.S. imports and offset production cuts by OPEC producers and Russia to leave oil prices wallowing near their lowest point since November.The dip in oil prices has been accompanied by falls in oil stocks that has created opportunities to buy in some of Europe's strongest names, claims Goldman."We ... see the sell off as an attractive buying opportunity in our favored stocks, including Total and Lundin, whilst we have also started to see investor interest in higher beta stocks that have sold off such as Tullow," wrote the bank."

Sorry. Short positions started to get closed five days ago as the SP started to fall in the same time period. This I don't understand as I thought that if the short positions closed then the SP would go up. Am I missing something as a novice investor?

So... could someone explain why the SP has gone down over the last five days when the declared short positions have closed by 5%. Am I missing something?