Kool Keith
22 Dec 2017
Re: Citrus crop update good read, thanks Triggers
Triggers broom
22 Dec 2017
Citrus crop update [link]
Triggers broom
22 Dec 2017
Re: CANACCORD They've spent some coin now though - adding another 2.5% to their holding inherited from Hargreave Hale.
Hardboy
14 Dec 2017
Re: Analysis by Phil Oakley of TET Thanks Rhigos, and just to correct myself, the stock churn of a product bought once a year and then used steadily through the year would have an average stock churn of 2, not one, as half would be used in the first 6 months, and half in the next 6 months. As for the falling share price I think when it reached the heady heights of around 520, even Treatt's biggest fans would agree it was overbought and had got ahead of itself. It had double in 4 months, so I think a correction is natural. I'm rather dismissive of chartists (to me they can only ever tell you where you've been not where you're going) but I do listen to them sometimes, and I think they'd find it hard to make any decisions about the current chart. Maybe (with the 2 most recent highs & lows making higher highs & lower lows) they'd suggest it was beginning to turn for the better, but without much conviction. We've a long time to wait for the next scheduled update (Early April) so I expect the share price will drift around for the next few months, reflecting general market emotions, unless we get any specific updates on their sites in BSE & Florida or something happens to exchange rates, or specific crops. Looking at the last 6 months this may make it a reasonable share to trade in & out of for a few months; but I'm always nervous about doing that.
smilingmickey1
14 Dec 2017
Re: Analysis by Phil Oakley of TET Hi Rhigos,I note from previous posts that you were not investor in Treatt during period of large price increase just prior to the recent fall. Many of us on this board were, and are now in the position of holding a stock in which they are sitting on a significant profit, and have enjoyed a growing dividend (but which has shown some recent price decline.) Sometimes I think one has to look at the Company fundamantals rather than the recent price graph. You will find that Treatt has experienced large growth in sales and profits over recent years.Treatt has recently produced accounts which show that the business has continued to rapidly grow over the past 12 months. Its targeted markets appear to be very attractive. It has successfully managed to raise the necessary funds through a well telegraphed debt/equity cash raising to complete construction of production facilities in the USA and UK, designed to increase capacity and reduce unit cost. It is indeed true that the valuation of the business on a PE basis is higher than a value investor would like, which together with the some possible profit taking by the recent investors in the fund raising may keep the share price subdued for a while. Of course the sales growth may fall or the capital projects may be mismanaged, but there is not much evidence to suggest either would happen.Were the price to fall further towards the issue price of the new shares, I think I would be topping up. I certainly won't be selling my current wad unless the news changes. SM
Rhigos
14 Dec 2017
Re: Analysis by Phil Oakley of TET Hardboy,You make some good points about natural products and harvests, however believers in adage 'Trend in your friend' will be concerned that over the last 6 months SP trend has been -21.5% pa.
smilingmickey1
07 Dec 2017
Re: Analysis by Phil Oakley of TET Well said Hardboy,I can remember LKH responding in similar vein to a question I raised regarding the high value of Treat's inventory a while back.I recall that one of Treatt's key unvalued "assets" is a good knowledge of and relationship with their important suppliers of the raw materials derived from seasonally harvested crops.SM
Hardboy
06 Dec 2017
Re: Analysis by Phil Oakley of TET When people look at stock churn across different sectors or even different products in the same business, and try to make meaningful comparisons, they invariably make mistakes. Almost each product has to be judged on its own specifics. As I understand it most of Treatt's raw materials are natural products - fruits, spices, etc. Most of these products come from annual harvests. You can only get them at one time a year; but the products Treatt sells are wanted all year round. So it seems to me pretty obvious that most of their supplies would have a churn of 1. They have a one off opportunity to get them, and need to make their supplies last all year. So depending when harvests of their major raw materials are, and when you take the snap shot of the balance sheet would depend if you had supplies sufficient for a year or a month. And of course storage of degradable products poses other problems. I started my working life in the Paper Industry, and most people know most paper is made from trees, which can be harvested all year round. Straw is actually a better raw material than wood from which to make paper, but you only get straw once a year, and storing enough becomes cost prohibitive.
Windsor Buffet
05 Dec 2017
Re: Analysis by Phil Oakley of TET Interesting and thanks for forwarding. On the surface that's a heck of a lot of cash to have tied up in working capital. Need to look at the books a bit more closely but possible reasons are (1) their facilities are pretty much at capacity giving them little flexibility to react to extra demand (2) seasonality of availability of key raw materials (3) strict contract terms requiring them to hold a large buffer stock (very common in Personal Care). All a bit of idle speculation from me I should add. Someone should ask the Q at the AGM.
Rhigos
02 Dec 2017
Analysis by Phil Oakley of TET This article by well respected analyst Phil Oakley, now working for Ionic, publisher of ShareScope and SharePad, includes an analysis of Treatt, may be of interest to TET shareholders.[link] bit I would have thought would ring alarm bells for TET shareholders.From above pdf"But holding 40% of annual sales inthe form of stocks and work inprogress just feels horrible to me."I confess I got it wrong and sold out before share price surged up but from article and looking at SP chart if I still held I would at least take some profits now if not sell out completely.
glasgowboy
28 Nov 2017
debt thanks Hardboy
Hardboy
28 Nov 2017
Re: debt I'm answering without studying the figures thoroughly, but I'm not too worried.They are entering a period of (for them) huge expenditure with a new site in the UK & expansion in Florida. Even with the placing debt will increase over the next couple of years. But it should generate better returns than the cost of the debt. Part of the increase is already down to that expenditure. I think the purchase of the new site was £3.7m Historically they have always been very good at keeping debts at very manageable levels, so I don't think the directors have suddenly gone spending mad. At current levels the debt is quite manageable - well covered by profits and cash flow, so I'm not worried enough to even do a thorough analysis at this point, but it is certainly an area which will need watching closely.
glasgowboy
28 Nov 2017
debt Great results I agree but any thoughts on the rising debt As a result of the movement in cash, as described above, the Group's net debt rose by £8.6m to £10.2m (2016: £1.7m) with a corresponding increase in the level of gearing from 4% to 22%
Chicken Lips
28 Nov 2017
Re: Finals Perhaps the best set of results for any share I!ve held. EVeryhting seems be on track with lots of future potential. WIsh I!d held my nerve. Emotion got the better of me and I sold when I should have bought. Well done the management team and those at Treatt.
Hardboy
28 Nov 2017
Finals On a quick skip through, these are cracking results - sales up 25%, Margin up, Profits up over 40%, and new capacity + state of the art HQ on its way. A bit disappointed that PIs don't get offered any of the new shares, but the placing makes sense from a business point of view, and at 410 is not too big a discount to dilute our value too much. So it's trading on a PE of 23 & yield of 1.14. Certainly not cheap , but the opportunities seem to be there to offer continuing strong growth over the next 5+ years, so it's almost a buy & forget share, i.e. try to ignore short term fluctuations, and watch sales & profits (& dividends) grow year on year.
