chas11
13 Oct 2016
Re: Jack W Smith mentions Avon having a tough time may be but look where they with $10 billion circa annual sales-Then there is AMWAY with $9.5billion annual sales and Herbalife with $3.8billion annual sales. All these companies used the MLM model to get where they are now. Sure the sales may be falling off now but you can hardly call this a failure of the MLM model-despite the opinion of our Financial Adviser of the year on this forum.
psmith64
13 Oct 2016
Re: Jack W How can I not admit that didn't happen Jack......history dictates that it didn't.I still believe it will happen when the TEP Network Marketing model it uses ultimately implodes as often is the case with this model of marketing.You only have to do your research to see that some companies have pulled out of the UK.....and other established brands such as Avon are having tough times with this method of marketing.Ultimately it runs it course of usefulness and to succeed it will have to resort more heavily to traditional marketing methods but I think TEP has left that a bit late as other newer and more competive energy companies have started to get a major foothold on the Big 6 defectors.Time I believe is running out for TEP to stop the slow up in its customers aquisitions which has been evident the last couple of years if it doesn't do something soon to bolster its failing Network Marketing model.All IMHO......DYOR as ever as it is your cash that has dwindled away over the last two years.
psmith64
13 Oct 2016
Re: Jack W And in May 2014......I sold out of TEP with around 100% profit and reinvested much of the proceeds in Taylor Wimpey and Next gaining around 75% in capital growth and lots of special dividends from both not to mention the bonus of a 25% Next shareholder voucher which we made good use off during refurbishment of our home. In September 2014 while the SP was 1400 I predicted based on reasonable research the SP would tank to circa 1000p which of course it did.I can handle holding cash at the moment giving me the ability to have taken part in a few post Brexit in and out jobs making 10 - 20 %.I could have made a little more on Taylor Wimpey post Brexit but I was happy with a quick 20% there in less than two weeks.Happy to have taken a little punt on Next last week.....it may not have been the bottom at sub 4500p but am happy to keep hold of for the next 2 - 3 years which should see it make some recovery and provide solid dividends.Unlike yourself OceanFree there are a lot of people sitting on losses with TEP who entered way above the 1400p I mentioned earlier.....some over 1900p who are unlikely to ever see a return on their capital if they haven't bailed out.I still believe TEP has a way to fall due to not being able to compete in the energy market which in my view will ultimately lead to a fall in customer numbers.We shall see in due course.
Jack_Walsh
07 Oct 2016
Re: Jack W OceanfreeI agree. He is very selective in his advice!Once he admits TEP didn't hit £6.00 by Xmas (2015?) I will take him more seriously.
oceanfree
07 Oct 2016
Re: Jack W About a year(?) ago, Smith was recommending selling Tep at £8 and buying Next at 8000. That would not have been a good trade in the medium term as Tep is up 40% and Next down 40% !!! So do your research and ignore him. As for sticking in cash, that too has been a poor idea as its buying power has fallen up to 20% in last 3 months measured against other currencies, gold, land, houses, bricks and cans of coke.Whats the point of a quick "dont be greedy" 10% gain on a month in Next if you then put the money back into £ that are worth 10% less. Thats if you can time trades when virtually every rich man says you cant. I am still holding TEP bought at £1 that have paid me £2 in dividends over the years plus a decent gain one day If I ever sell!
psmith64
07 Oct 2016
Re: Jack W As long as you are happy with your decisions that is all that matters Jack.It is the same philosophy I have always used and know what you mean about taking advice from a BB.I do read a some posts with great interest and as anyone should go off and do some further investigation if it interests me enough.Anyway....have a good weekend.
Jack_Walsh
07 Oct 2016
Re: Jack W Best of luck with Next. I've got a long-term horizon with it, so I'm OK with some pretty large swings.As for selling TEP and buying Next - I'm pretty happy with my allocation of both. Also, and with all respect, I certainly wouldn't take advice from a random person on these boards!My inner cynic, and based on past experience of your behaviour, I suspect you've only said that I should sell TEP and buy Next so that you can mention it in the future and say 'I told you so bla bla.......' in the event that Next rises and TEP falls.As mentioned, I'm happy with my allocation of both.
psmith64
07 Oct 2016
Jack W Actually Jack.....just took a look at Next a moment go to see how the collapse in currency over the last 24 hours had affected the SP and have to admit that 4579p looked like a good punt so dipped my toe back in.Not sure that is the bottom as I do think retail is going to take a bit more of a hammering once the Brexit button is pushed but as in the past I think Next will weather the storm a little better than some.Looking for an exit point of 5500p to make circa 20% which I believe should be possible sometime in the next 36 months.That said if it bounces 10% up in the short term I will probably take the money and run at the moment.The way Next surprise at times it could be a lot sooner.While you are still in profit here Next at today's price could certainly give you better returns in the medium term IMHO......DYOR as ever because it is your cash not mine.
psmith64
07 Oct 2016
Re: Smith - shorts Well good luck Jack especially here and with Next.I believe it is only a matter of time before there is a massive sell off and because of my 2 1/2 year timescale of taking my 25% lump sum I don't want to get caught up in the volitility that I think is ahead.People are not spending as much and news only this week is that more people than ever are paying down debt especially mortgage debt which gives a good indication of the nation's outlook.I guess all those that dabble and read The Sun or The Daily Express lose sight of the real world as it happens.Anyway back in September 2014 when I warned about the outlook here the SP stood at 1400.....there was much better places over those two years for my cash but sadly those places are a little less certain now hence I sold out way before Brexit.I guess if I haven't learnt anything in this game after nearly 30 years then I shouldn't be doing it.On the whole I share stuff on these boards in good faith and it is only a personal opinion based on my level of research just like everyone else that uses these boards.There will be some who benefited from my posts here and yes some who didn't but on the whole info I shared on here from the earlier days of the likes of Just Eat made up for getting things wrong at times here along with Taylor Wimpey and Next both shares I mentioned were a better place.I did declare my exit from both pre Brexit too.
Jack_Walsh
04 Oct 2016
Re: Smith - shorts Hi PS.I'm still happily invested in Next.As I've said numerous times on this board, I am a long-term buy-and-hold investor, so I'm not interested in scratching around for a few percentage point gain here and there. I certainly don't have the skill or luck to perfectly time entry and exit points, so I'm happy to take the dividends in the meanwhileI've actually ben increasing my exposure to Next, as I see it as a decent income generator for the future. That said, it's only around 4% of my total holdings, so it wouldn't be the end of the world (albeit annoying) if it turned on one wing and dived into the ground!It might be a bad move, but only time will tell.Overall I think it's a better strategy than being in cash (with the markets powering forward) or by shorting companies whose share prices are rising!I couldn't leave without a parting shot!
sfbrains
04 Oct 2016
Re: Smith - shorts Awww smithy , dont leave everytime you post a sell rec the share price just keeps going up , what would the share price do without you
psmith64
04 Oct 2016
Re: Smith - shorts Jack.......did you get out of Next recently at a small profit when you had your chance.Shame you didn't get in a bit earlier when I first mentioned it all those months back.It is all about timing and putting in the effort with the research.I fear Next is probably heading back towards 4000p as the future Brexit caused recession takes place and people head back to Primark.You missed the boat there sunshine.Anyway glad to be sitting on a pile of cash waiting for future opportunities when they arise.I won't be sharing my research here anymore.
psmith64
04 Oct 2016
Re: Smith - shorts Well SFB et al on this board....,You can see from my past history why I don't really get involved with the dregs of this board licking their wounds after greed got the better of them.Take a look at just one of the little nuggets I wasted my time sharing on here while I just got abused time after time....[link] out of this one well over 100% up while you lot just resorted to primary school banter.You see that is why it is all like water off a ducks back to me.Like it or not it is only a matter of time that TEP slides to sub 700 p.....they can't go on bringing in new customers while they are one of the most expensive utility providers out there.It will reflect in the customer numbers at some stage going into reverse......possibly this financial year after last year's dire customer increase in the light of 100's of thousands leaving the Big 6.Tick Tock..........Tick Tock...........Bang. That dreaded day will come when the profits warning is announced and a lot of people will be left holding the baby.Its the problem when greed gets the better of you.I could quite easily have made another 50% out of Just Eat the last few months but I was happy with my 100% in just over 12 months just as I was happy with my 100% when Andrew Lindsey put doubt in my mind by his sell off.I suppose it is all a bit like Russian Roulette.....some have got more nerve but sooner or later you are going to get blasted.Night Night SFB......hope you aren't getting too many No's.....will be thinking of you on these cold winter nights while I got me feet up with my hot chocolate.
sfbrains
01 Oct 2016
Re: Smith - shorts Hey Smiffy , my reconing anoter £1 million aded to the bottom line profits wih the line rental increase 1t november ( still in line with monthly cheapst line rental ) and anoter "which bet buy " award this week which they reckon is worth 8 percent added to new uptake . I guess what you really meant was no news to justify your new short ( I guess you cant haveanyold shorts as you declared you were out of everything a fewmonths ago. What does BREXIT mean? well a new lot of money printing and a whol lot of big fat fees for consultants a safe haven for smart money currency hedging foreign investments and precious metals
psmith64
30 Sep 2016
Re: Smith - shorts Hi Jack....long time no hear.Hope you didn't get too greedy with your next as you recently had a good opportunity to make a relatively quick profit in these uncertain times.You obviously don't remember the SP when I took my first short out which was the main one and as of today is still around 100 pips in profit...I am happy with that and stiff confident in the not too distant future it will stand me well.I guess you had me on block when I was openly trading short on TEP on a weekly basis when we were getting 5 % swings during the course of a few days.Strangely I just opened another one this week for the short term as it is easy money when you get spikes for no reason.Still happy holding the majority of my capital in cash until I actually know what Brexit means.Hope you are doing OK.
