sfbrains
15 Jun 2016
Re: results well you have something in common with finncap The results dont differ from the intrim statement materialy so why would anyone change thier mind the divis and number of services supplied keep ticking up despite headwinds why would anyone revise anythingWe are out of switching season which is where the clubs route to market actually proves much better than industry averages making net gains as people switch thier attention to all things summer and networking comes into its own volume good for the day and the share price has ended up where it finished which signals suport at this level i wouldnt be surprised if we are back in the £10-£10.50 range again before the divi drop
psmith64
15 Jun 2016
Re: results I don't think FinnCap have any credibility on this share for the past couple of years.Still recommended as a buy and after these latest results their forecasts are way off the mark.Have they downgraded their current SP forecast with publication of this note ?
psmith64
15 Jun 2016
Re: results Dividend cover is far too high at present SFB......leaves around £ 4 million for reinvestment back into the company from net profits.At the current forecast profits for the year ahead and the company having to look at updating IT, taking on a direct sales team surely they won't want to fund this out of borrowing while still paying such high dividends.An interesting year ahead....certainly not a buy proposition right now so current holders have a big decision to make. Hold in the hope of the maybes......or sell.Be interesting to see if Standard Life offload another tranche.
sfbrains
15 Jun 2016
Re: results Like yous psmitits an interesting market I suspect lots of offloading to cash yesterday across the board looking at the ftse as a whole and yes a pause on the progresive seems on the cards the market is always right , my guess is the board has just come to terms with the past highs and are resigned to some hard slog until the trading conditions improve , the new entrants cant go on making a loss forever and stay in business you can recomend those but I certainly wont be as I dont like things blowing up in my face on the other hand I dont much care for the churn either but the alternative would be an absolute disaster for members and distributors alike . I am glad the company isnt in your hands 
Simbr
15 Jun 2016
Re: results finnCap published a note this morning:"One has to get to page 13 of the TEP prelims before coming across the highly impressive statistic that customers taking five products now constitute 48% of the 17,000 net new customer wins, up from 28% in 4Q15. The stronger than expected positive trend for the medium term comfortably outweighs the well known near-term trend of pressure on gas and electricity pricing. The minimal increase in churn is negligible; a £4 a month reduction in ARPU is mild in context of the falling utility prices; and bad debt levels are improving. As customers taking fewer products churn off, and the quality of the underlying and growing customer base improves, the business is well placed to benefit significantly when discount gas and electricity service providers become challenged by working capital demands of an eventual return to increasing prices."scraped from Research Tree
psmith64
15 Jun 2016
Re: results Dividend cover is far too high at present SFB......leaves around £ 4 million for reinvestment back into the company from net profits.At the current forecast profits for the year ahead and the company having to look at updating IT, taking on a direct sales team surely they won't want to fund this out of borrowing while still paying such high dividends.An interesting year ahead....certainly not a buy proposition right now so current holders have a big decision to make. Hold in the hope of the maybes......or sell.Be interesting to see if Standard Life offload another tranche.
psmith64
15 Jun 2016
Re: Thoughts on results....... I have been quiet because there has been no abuse thrown around and I said I would lay low if that was the case.Thanks everybody to sticking to your part of the bargain.Hopefully my view on the results will come without abuse just as I wouldn't abuse your differing thought SFB.It would appear yesterday the market is one of caution because at least the company has admitted the future depends on a lot of maybes.It will be a struggle to maintain customer growth in the face of the competition is my thought and that is not good within MLM because more than ever they need the outer tenticles of the network which in these times will be difficult to maintain interest.The good news is I will keep my one and only mobile I still have with them for my wife now 4G is coming which gives me access to the Clubcard. To that end I will be quite prepared to show people how they can get a free decent mobile if they can use the clubcard. I can't fault UW being able to offer this to the nation.Hopefully one day it will be able to sort its energy prices out and I can then feel comfortable in showing people the whole story.Until that time.....I am out on the sidelines watching closely because I have morals and I think that is the big problem at the moment as many other ID's do too.How can you knowingly sell something to a friend or family member knowing they are paying way over the odds to line their pockets.Obviously a very few ID's can still do that and mentor others to do it hence UW grew by around 17,500 customers in the year.This is an important year for UW as at the moment it is unlikely they will be able to compete and if churn continues to rise and new customers continue to fall then this year I suspect we could see a fall in customers because they still havent reached the 600,000 customer mark yet three months into the new financial year.Funny how this year they haven't predicted how many new customers they are likely to get. I wonder why that is ?
Jack_Walsh
15 Jun 2016
Re: results Results seem broadly in line with expectations, and there are cases to hold, buy or sell.For me, the div is sufficient to keep holding.
sfbrains
15 Jun 2016
results Absolutly no surprises in the results infact most of it I posted in february before the intrims were done , The one thing that is conspicuous by its absence is the progressive dividend statement thats been in every set of results for as long as I can remember , like ive said before the statements and over views I have always found to be very open and honest which to me hints in to a swaying towards a little less margin and a little more growth . As psmith quite rightly points out most of the independent distributors ( whom are "active" only work in periods of high growth ) to get the best returns on thier time , it is thier own business after all maybe its a good thing that the company have engaged a small sales team now they are footing the bill for some full time employees then they will be forced to calculate profitability and cost of sales ( even though they are feeding off leads provided by the network and so are being subsidised directly by them initially . So lets discuss some original thoughts rather than recycle two year old suppositions which never came to pass in the interests of enlightenment psmith
sfbrains
15 Jun 2016
Re: Thoughts on results....... Firstly its been quite here because the share went over the ten pounds when you predicted it would go down to £6 and you were te embarased to show your face , 18 months ago you predicted it would go down to £6 within a couple of months then 6 month then 12 months so 18 plus the extra 12 today takes your predictive powers out 36 months from a couple the ever expanding universe of psmith 3 yes churn up by 1.9% which is below industry average but not where a network marketing distributor wants it to be but as a supplier or investor below average churn would have to be seen as good news4 Spend down (price reductions higher than net growth is more likley to be the over riding factor margins are still good ) I would say that was a positive from an investor point of view although going forward a more efficient housing stock will mean lower consumption but taken as a whole energy prices are going to be going in one direction to support renewables nuclear and network upgrades as well as obligations , Water comming online soon and a daliance into insurance will raise member spend to new record highs dont forget we had a second warm winter in a row had we have had an average winter spend ould have been up5 The company has a proven history of making the most of all the maybes and has led the way on multi play before the phrase existed All in all results fortunately for the shareholders most of them know what p/e ratios are and as we have had earnings growth since you originally quoted your price then ...........somethings amiss
psmith64
14 Jun 2016
Thoughts on results....... Just had a chance to read through the results and can see why things are quiet today.....1) Current customer aquisition in line with last quarter. This will equate to 10,000 - 15,000 new customers provided they can maintain this level of take up. Less than last year in the face tough competition2) Partners on the decrease and those left bringing in around 1 customer per annum between 3 ID's. This is going to be quite demorilising as it is obvious many are bringing in no customers per annum while UW remain uncompetitive.3) Churn up again.4) Customer spend per head down again with further reductions probable as more energy efficiency measures take place and tariffs drop.5) The future is based on a lot of maybe's6) Company seems to be at a point of little growth now which points to a level of maturity unless some of the maybe's happen.Based on all the above points I can't see that the company justifies a P/E greater than in the range of 9 - 10.I therefore maintain my sell rec and give a price range of 600p to 650p over the coming 12 months assuming the current profit forecasts remain on track.Plus points from the results.....profit in line with expectations and dividend in line with policy. A better negotiation for borrowings and a larger facility available which in my view will be needed for the company to evolve new IT etc.It does appear that the company is looking at some direct marketing to recover past customers. This could upset existing ID's if they don't get any remuneration for regaining a past customer but it is a positive move as it would appear the company is realising it can't rely on it's base of freelance ID's to obtain the growth to keep shareholders happy who must be a little daunted by the future and current lack of growth in the face of mass departure from the big 6As ever DYOR.
sfbrains
27 May 2016
Re: Psmith (post repeated as buried) Ha a sell rec from the 11th of this month hardly old news ( a week is a long time in politics ) but from where I'm sitting a position had I a short one would be looking like an eternity right now
Jack_Walsh
27 May 2016
Re: Psmith (post repeated as buried) SFBThat's an old post?Let's wait and see.
sfbrains
26 May 2016
Re: Psmith (post repeated as buried) buylowe,Your phrase nagative new customers cant exist in this universe , whilst a share price can go up or down from 2p away the lowest number of new customers is 0 per day, new customers are still piling in at over 300 pd and yes churn will be the factor and I have given my estimate for that already , even with lower customer numbers the numbber of services supplied can still go up as the quality of the members increases as does the length of time that they stay , and the proof is that dividends can only be paid on profits and that number has up until now been progresive ;-0 .Lo and behold £10.06 breached if it holds tomorrow I think we are onwards and upwards to 11 12 again
sfbrains
25 May 2016
Re: Closed above thats the third time its bounced off 10.06 when that sell order is fulfilled the path will be clear for onwards and upwards anyones guess how many are left hanging but 3 bites of the cherry IMHO not long before they are gone
