Jack_Walsh
29 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK Fair enough.I'm quite a bit younger than you, so I don't mind staying fully invested for the next 30-40 years - rather than trying to time the market.There will always we ups and downs, so I'm sure those with good timing will be able to make money.
psmith64
29 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK They are Jack......but feel more comfortable adding to my National Grid in the range of 985 - 1000p the last few weeks.Took advantage of offloading a few more NEXT above 4900p so have very little exposure to retail and construction now.Won't buying back in any Next, Taylor Wimpey or Persimmon for a few months now because I think as this whole sorry mess unfolds over the coming months we will be able to buy some bargains over the next 6 - 18 months for the longer term.National Grid and Tesco looking good punts right now......we all need food and energy and National Grid has to be the safter bet over the suppliers who are slugging it out in a competive market.Glad to have lots of cash available at the moment because in all the doom we are the land of opportunity over the coming months unfortunately at the expense of others.
oceanfree
29 Jun 2016
Re: doom & gloom v opportunity " Good heavens , what changed after the vote???? Absolutly nothing the sun still shone the rain still fell and a few politicians decided it was time to go job hunting.The whole process of sowing discord for the selfish ambitions of a few pleb politicians is a disgrace to public service and the whole idea of democracy . The voice of reason dictates that we all stop fretting and get on with the business of being a team and a stable place to do good business "Well said SFB - I don't normally understand what you are going on about, but this time I did and I agree.
Jack_Walsh
29 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK And on the plus side, TEP shares are being very resilient - currently at £10.40.
sfbrains
29 Jun 2016
doom & gloom v opportunity Good heavens , what changed after the vote???? Absolutly nothing the sun still shone the rain still fell and a few politicians decided it was time to go job hunting.The whole process of sowing discord for the selfish ambitions of a few pleb politicians is a disgrace to public service and the whole idea of democracy . The voice of reason dictates that we all stop fretting and get on with the business of being a team and a stable place to do good business .I did say that we all have the chance to write our own ticket on the exit decision and Lo and behold the masses are deciding to engage after the result its a bit like discussing the results of a football game after the final whistle has gone it's not going to change the result no matter who wins a fight down the pub afterwards the only thing that happens is glasses get smashed the pub gets trashed and no one wants to drink at the local for a while because it has a reputation for being what it's not. Anyway opportunity in discord im happy to sit back and watch the general public get taken for a ride. Traders the press and gold always do well in times of uncertainty and a few big mouths get more media exposure than they dreamed possible
psmith64
29 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK You certainly do pay your money and take your chances.I would have been floored by now if I hadn't have taken the serious profits from Next and the housebuilders some months ago as I have always said greed gets the better of people as was the case with TEP 2 years ago.Feel a lot more comfortable being shielded from the unknown a little more now and had cash available to buy back some building shares which possibly have been marked down a bit too much......a good hold for 3 - 5 years now I believe which is possibly the timeframe if not longer to sort the current mess of Brexit out.Make no bones about it we are going to be in for a recession of some kind driven by falls in orders in construction shelved or held back while Brexit is sorted......it had started some months ago on the run up to this vote and now it will intensify.I have been in construction long enough now to see the early signs which has helped me position myself ahead of the game and you will see I didn't keep that info to myself some months ago on the TW board.Batten down the hatches, put your seatbelts on the bumpy road ahead has commenced and you would be a brave man to predict the length of the journey but I reckon 3 - 5 years.There will of course still be opportunity as there always is in these times of uncertainty for the long term trader and the day traders alike.
Jack_Walsh
29 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK Psmith You pay your money and you take a chance.I'm still 100% invested, which is working fine for now. Many of my stocks are global blue chips, which have actually done well from the vote. Clearly, my domestic stocks such as next have fared less well.I don't think article 50 will be enacted any time soon, so I think the ftse should hold up OK for the time being.As for tep, who knows!
psmith64
29 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK Took the hit at 5000p......bailed out and just hold around £ 5000 worth at the moment at an average of around 5300p and will hold for the longer term as I believe they will be a good longer term bet.Took a bit of a punt on Taylor Wimpey at 120p....again will hold for the longer term. Assuming they stick to the divi a good current yeild.Stuck a bit into National Grid as a banker but still keeping around 70% in cash at the moment.....makes sense after such a good run.Someone looked down on me end of last year / beginning of year thats for sure because it is even a bit too unpredictable for me at the moment I don't mind admitting.I don't think we have seen worst yet.....could see the FTSE in the 5000 - 5500 mark once the recession kicks in started as ever by a rout in construction.Good luck.....be careful.
Jack_Walsh
28 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK Your Next shares can't be doing too well?Mine aren't!
psmith64
27 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK But I shared a valid view as someone in the industry......just as I shared a valid view here back in September 2014 I confident enough to make a sell rec which was a change to my previous buy rec here a few months prior.You will see I changed my TW view to a hold today at current levels.....still a chance of further falls but more a long term recovery stock now.Shame UW wasn't able to be more competive with it's energy costs right now because people will be looking to tighten belts at the moment.
sfbrains
27 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK psmith as you of all people well know the masses are more inclined to belive what they want to hear and dismiss what doesnt tally with thier current beliefs , the message is beware what you write and double question your confirmation bias , eg did you post a single sell reccomendation on the TW site mmmm me thinks not
psmith64
27 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK Come on SFB........don't be selective in a message which can put a different slant on things......shame on you.Full text of the message.....I did take a smaller position back here at around 176p as it did look good value and just short of 15%+ in a short space of time is pretty good again and am tempted to take that again next week.I don't think there is any massive danger here in the next 12 months but beyond that I am not so certain.There is too much of a what happened before feeling at the moment for my liking. Credit seems easy to get at the moment and borriwing is on the rise and house prices have got crazy again and a correction could be on the cards in the future....just my feeling.I am glad I banked a lot of profit in the housebuilders. I may have jumped ship too early hence I have bought back in with a smaller holding all out of profit so risk for me is not so great.I am tempted to sell out again next week as I do prefer cash at this moment in time while there is a bit of uncertainty around.Good luck anyway.
sfbrains
27 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK psmiths post 20th may 2016 TW.lI don't think there is any massive danger here in the next 12 months but beyond that I am not so certain.Good luck anyway.
sfbrains
27 Jun 2016
Re: Genuine hope all is OK Hey hey ,Im great thanks Psmith good to see you back but on the 20th of last month you posted this on the TW site doh I don't think there is any massive danger here in the next 12 months but beyond that I am not so certain.Good luck anyway.
psmith64
27 Jun 2016
Genuine hope all is OK I took a lot of flack on this board over time but I do hope that none of you have got caught out.I was often questioned here about my abilities as an investor but am I glad I liquidised 75% of my portfolio the last 6 - 9 months and have a good part of money left in National Grid.Here is a post I put on the TW board back in April....I got a little more respect there with many likes on that board....[link] I said this is a genuine post as all PI's need to pull together in times like this.
