Eadwig
25 May 2016
Re: First purchase H2, "Welcome on-board, I think you are buying in at an attractive price. "Very much agree, I wish I had an average of @320p, unfortunately I got caught the wrong side of the @360p placement, with my average which appears to have largely dictated price since.With the Brexit scare stories and the 'attacks' on high end London properties through taxes and legislation, I would have thought TEF were superbly well placed with their affordable housing focus. The market seems to disagree. I can't quite decide if I am missing something, the excluding placement left a bad taste generally, or simply the sector has pulled TEF down, and the same tide has risen it again lately.I would have thought whichever way the referendum vote goes, TEF should still be relatively well placed within the sector and especially amongst London-centric builders.Anyway, the market price (yes, I know its AIM, but even so) has mystified me recently, but I have managed to trade down my averages, although it doesn't help having my holding spread across two different accounts (SIPP & ISA) - I keep making that mistake, I'm going to have to do something about that strategy.I'm hoping for TEF settling down post referendum and strong results (of which I'm confident) will push the share price beyond the recent resistance levels.
theblue
25 May 2016
Re: First purchase Blimey.
Damp Seaweed
06 May 2016
Re: First purchase HE,I'm a bit of a divi hunter and don't usually consider anything under 6%. I know this has risk implications but I want to believe I can get a better total return on my investment than in a bank savings account (eg TSB 5%).I also bought Berkeley (BKG) yesterday @2900p. They may offer less capital growth but with a relatively secure divi @6+% they get my vote.I'm quite prepared to be patient with TEF and hope to see a decent return through capital appreciation as well as divi.Nice start to the day
Hydrogen Economy
06 May 2016
Re: First purchase DS Welcome on-board, I think you are buying in at an attractive price. weak divi I guess you mean not very high rather than at risk of being cut. Historic yield of 3.4% for 2015 is not so bad. DL show 2015/16 total forecast as 13.8p (6.5p interim paid) (4.3% forecast to rise to 4.7% in 16/17), (XD late June, FY results on 1st June). DL forecasting 38.4p FY EPS in 15/16 which is a PE 8.4. My feeling here is TEF are pretty well positioned in the jittery current market. Recent news of house prices falling in March included London as the area holding up best. Government support for affordable housing in London plays directly to a core TEF businessOne question is why has TEF slipped so far recently. Clearly any builder with a strong London focus is being squeezed but I am encouraged by a statement within the trading update on 16th April."Assisted by these anticipated PRS sales the Group no longer expects there to be a dip in profit levels in the year to 31 March 2017, an issue originally created by planning delays. Instead the Board expects profit levels to continue to grow particularly into 2018 and 2019 such that profit before tax is now expected to exceed £50 million in the year to 31 March 2019, ahead of expectations stated at the time of the placing in October 2015."That dip is still indicated in DL forecast with EPS falling 9% to 34.75p in YE Mar 17, bouncing 43% to 49.5p in 18.Market valuation of course needs to look longer term-and many uncertainties out there but on balance I will be inclined to add if price weakens further.H2
Damp Seaweed
05 May 2016
First purchase In @320p I think the divi is weak but hoping for a bit of capital recovery once we get Bexit vote through.
uselessbaba
13 Apr 2016
Another stonking trading update !! Highlights · Profit before tax for the year to 31 March 2016 anticipated to be slightly ahead of current market expectations· Market remains strong for typical Telford Homes product from UK investors, overseas investors and owner-occupiers· Successful launch of The Liberty Building, E14 selling 68 of the 105 open market apartments in the last four weeks with a combined sales value of over £40 million· More than 50% of the cumulative revenue expected in the next three financial years up to 31 March 2019 has already been secured through forward sales· First Private Rented Sector ("PRS"
development contracted with L&Q for £66.75 million· Terms agreed on a second PRS transaction with significant potential for more over the next few years· Development pipeline as at 31 March 2016 of over £1.5 billion of future revenue· Many opportunities continue to be appraised and negotiated to further strengthen the development pipeline, utilising the £50 million placing funds raised in October 2015· Longer term growth expectations have increased during the year with profit before tax now forecast to exceed £50 million in the year to 31 March 2019
Eadwig
29 Mar 2016
Re: TEF vs GLE comparison graphic, quite coo... Re: simply Wall St. Yes, seen it before, but not this time ...Amazing how off-putting having to sign up for a free account is these days. Not because it takes much time, but because you are giving away your e-mail address and setting yourself up for junk mail, plus you have to remember yet another new password, and my brain for one is overloaded with them already.
mcescher
28 Mar 2016
TEF vs GLE comparison graphic, quite cool Excellent Telford Homes / MJ Gleeson comparison. Have you guys seen this website before? I only just discovered it covers AIM. [link]
Eadwig
11 Mar 2016
Re: Oversold? Superlux,Having read the posts below, you wont be surprised to hear that I agree with you. In fac t I go as far as to say this is a STRONG BUY, as I did just a month ago when I added @321p.I later sold that tranche for a quick 10% (almost), and used the profits to take down my book value on the rest of my holding, which is too high for comfort, up towards @400p (actually held in two different accounts for an average of about @386p), having bought in relatively recent times then suffering due to the @360p placement.I have a limit order to buy more BDEV today and have also set one for TEF @320p, in the hope of repeating the above trade, although the after hours activity last night suggests I might be disappointed in the TEF trade. We will see, but I think anything below the 360p placement price is a pretty safe bet for the longer term if you do end up stuck with a trade.
Superlux
10 Mar 2016
Oversold? I am watching this with a view to adding soon. It appears to be underloved when the market rises, and follows the dips when the market falls. (My amateur, no t/a opinion.) Reasonable yield, and a property investment in London. Maybe foreign investors are less interested in this particular market currently, but as a long term investment this seems to me to be a solid choice. Interested to hear others views, noting that I have read those posted below!
Eadwig
18 Feb 2016
Re: Good news SBD, " Greed on the part of the builders, who hold massive land banks which they are not utilising"I can't say I've done an exhaustive study, but the evidence appears to be, from the larger builders that I have looked at like BDEV, PSN, TW, their landbanks are equivalent to about 4-5 year's stock at current completion rates. Not all with planning permission as yet. This seems pretty prudent pipeline management to me and not excessive, though the greed allegation does keep coming up.Plus, with limited labour resources, you can hardly blame them for leaving some sites for later. Sensible business, I would say. If you take on extra labour, especially if you are paying premium rates, you need to have an idea where you are going to put them to work after the current development is completed.There are companies that hold land while it appreciates as a business model, I have discovered, and these tend to be land/property funds, they often seem happy to sit on land for five or ten years. In places like York there has been legal action taken against them to try to force development or sale to developers. This tends to be only where central, brownfield sites are becoming an eyesore and/or safety hazard. I'm not sure a council can force a company to build on or sell a site, although government was definitely talking about changes to the law to try to bring developments about where undue delays were happening. I don't know if there was a definite outcome to that.Councils generally can't afford the legal bills either, in anything other than extreme cases, I would assume.As for the greed of land owners. Nothing new there. It is their land, after all, and up to them if they sell it or not, I suppose.
silent but deadly
18 Feb 2016
Re: Good news Eadwig, I will leave it then. I looked up her previous suggestions and they appear as accurate as picking horses out the papers with a pin. I see little point in making predictions without something to back it up.There are a variety of reasons for apparent slow down in some areas. Councils still being very slow in granting planning, partly due to the builders changing the number of houses on developments to increase profits. This angers the general public who then submit protests that require looking into by the council. Lack of labour to construct the houses. Greed on the part of the builders, who hold massive land banks which they are not utilising. Why sell a house today on land you own when 12 months on you get a far better price, that is their thinking. And greed on land owners who are asking too much once they see the chance of development. Plus many other reasons, such as costs on brownfield sites, redevelopment costing more than new etc etc.
Eadwig
17 Feb 2016
Re: Good news S.B.D,LG's projections are based entirely on technical analtsis (as far as I know) and any personal observations like your own of the industry and even government intervention in the market etc etc are treated simply as 'background noise'. She wont enlarge on the reasons for the projection, judging from her posts over the years. Thats just how it is, take it or leave it.I too have personally observed the on-going boom in York recently - another hotspot like Cambridge, Reading and others, and of course, London.On the other side of the coin, my flat in an upmarket part of Sheffield, the area itself still a hot spot for houses, has not increased in value in the last 12 months. Construction there has started to slow in terms of numbers of flats being built. This is no coincidence and shows just how careful the builders are being these days to maintain margins in the face of rising costs above inflation.A good sign for shareholders in terms of yield being maintained, if not the same sort of stellar growth in share price that we have seen over the last 4 or 5 years.
silent but deadly
17 Feb 2016
Re: Good news I work in the construction industry and it's not stopping yet. It is back to the bad old days of boom and bust. At present and for next 12 months it is boom. There are thousands of new houses being built around my area in Cambridge and the employers are building as well like it is going out of fashion. Only problems are no skilled labour, hence European labour is employed and material shortages, delivery delays and increases well above inflation.I would still like to know where LG gets this 50% fall.I also note the directors are buying shares recently, I hope it is to pick them up cheap before end of year r
Eadwig
17 Feb 2016
Re: Good news LG does say -50% over the next few years, and I wouldn't necessarily disagree given the history of the UK housing cycle.It certainly isn't going to stop me holding in the short-medium term, say, 3 to 36 months. I always keep UK housing stocks under very close scrutiny, given their historic potential for extreme volatility. It is because of this volatility that I have earned more money from this sector than any other single sector over the last 20 odd years of investing.Frankly, a 50% crash in a few years time is what I hope for also, not for TEF specifically, but for the sector, you understand. Then every chance of hitching up to multi-baggers once again. I don't think the next cycle downturn will be anything like as severe as some previous cycle lows, due to measures put in place after the severity of the last low, but difficult to tell, as ever.
