casabanker
05 Jul 2016
O/T - soi I hold and have bought more yesterday in another share that looks oversold. The company is NXR. It has a strong balance sheet, 4%+ improving dividend and a PER of 7.25. It is suffering like the housing sector due to about a third of the business is in South Africa. Well I think that is the reason. It is also cyclical being in the business of bathroom fittings and home improvement items. Casa.
casabanker
05 Jul 2016
Re: Bought in I agree, claude, it is a falling knife. My initial investment here and in BDEV is only around 1% each of total portfolio by value. Unless there is a sea change in government policy or a potential property crash, I will hold for the dividend income. Casa.
claude reins
05 Jul 2016
Re: Bought in To all you bought in's, I understand the temptation - I havent a great deal of liquidity muyself - but I am afraid you (and probably I if I had the cash) would ignore those terrible words - PROFIT-TAKING and SENTIMENT. There may be further to fall yet, regardless of your undeniable logic.
casabanker
05 Jul 2016
Re: Bought in Good afternoon, soi,There have been a number of articlces in Money Week recently concerning property values and the future of housing. BDEV, BWY and a propery investment fund, TRY have been tipped. I have been watching TEF for some time after the late Jim Slater liked it last year. I usually steer clear of house builders but this recent sector price collapse looks much over done. I too have bought TEF today at 282. I have also bought BDEV at around 380. TRY also looks attractive but I haven't bought in yet. They have decent divis at this price and super lpw PER's. I have also seen BLND and LAND tipped for the same reason. It seems many are expecting a house price crash. However, the gbp has weakened against most currencies which will make housing. particularly in London, cheap to wealthy foreigners. Interest rates do not look set to rise any time soon, even if inflation spikes up. There could even be a fall in interest rates and another dose of QE. Best wishes, Casa.
Damp Seaweed
05 Jul 2016
Re: Bought in I've joined you @275
soi
05 Jul 2016
Bought in HiBought in for first ever time, @ 278.Seems a decent risk reward ratio to me.ATBsoi
II Editor
01 Jun 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Institutions love Telford Homes "AIM-listed LSE:TEF:Telford Homes has a problem. Despite being one of the fastest-growing housebuilders around, the developer of non-prime London property has been persistently ignored by doubtful investors."We sit in a perfect storm. Being in ..."[link]
paddington_bear
01 Jun 2016
Truly exceptional homes? These results have re-assured me after the SP dropped steadily from 482p at last year's figures.So revenue up 42%, profit and dividend up 28%. Debt cut from £93m to 38m . New £180m credit facility agreed.The story here is that this is a London focused builder that will not be greatly affected by the present/future capital area downturn. It has creditable advance sales and a new venture into Private Rented Houses, buildings which are evolving from recent Government tax alterations.Nonetheless, still some 42% of buyers of their homes are from overseas and for anyone not from that area, the average cost of £600,000 seems a huge sum for a property, even those with the convenience of nearby facilities like Crossrail.Converely, the debt position has improved in part by reserved purchases and secondly by diversification into PRH, since the end user seems to pay substantiallly ibefore construction.At this level dividend should help support SP.PB
ookyfly
01 Jun 2016
Re: Results The results look pretty good to me - future prospects even more so. Divi is quite good for an AIM share.For me, the exemption after 2 years from iht is a big plus. I shall be buying more, especially if Mr Market disdains the results.
Eadwig
01 Jun 2016
Re: Results Not really shot the lights out, and very much need to see the full report as some of the highlights given appear to be avoiding some key metrics and/or year on year comparisons. Market seems to be taking it reasonably well so far, with a small earnings beat over the concensus H2 was reporting.Highlights:Record revenue of £245.6 million, an increase of 42 per cent (2015: £173.5 million)Pre-tax profit for the year exceeding original market expectations and increasing by 28% to £32.2m (2015: £25.1m) Proposed final dividend substantially increased (approx 28%) to 7.7p bringing the total dividend for the year to 14.2p (2015: 11.1p)Strong demand with 548 new open market sales added in the year and total forward sales at 1 April 2016 amounting to £579 million of future revenue (2015: £503 million)Already secured over 50 per cent of the cumulative revenue expected in the next three financial years up to 31 March 2019 Development pipeline in excess of £1.5 billion of future revenue, greater than six times the revenue reported in the year to 31 March 2016Enhanced longer term growth expectations with pre-tax profit forecast to increase over the next three years and to exceed £50 million in the year to 31 March 2019
Hydrogen Economy
01 Jun 2016
Re: Results All looks positive, strong rise in Revenue, Profits, Dividends, market reaction pretty positive considering market is well down.Analysts were right, EPS 39.3p - quoted on weighted average shares in issue in the year- ie 66m -so main impact of the additional shares on reported EPS will not kick in until next year. Doh!Outlook- positive Telford Homes is building homes for Londoners in a market where demand continues to significantly outstrip supply, and the Board believes that this undeniable structural factor will underpin the Group's future growthInteresting comment on Customer Mix- overseas purchasers still a big part of the market, so Brexit may be significant risk here. PRS seems to be picking up and should take up some of what has been BTL sales. The sales achieved in the year to 31 March 2016 were split 28 per cent to UK investors, 41 per cent to overseas investors, 7 per cent to owner-occupiers and 24 per cent to institutional investors (Private Rented Sector or PRS). The same percentages last year were 38, 49 and 13 respectively with no comparable PRS sales.H2
Hydrogen Economy
31 May 2016
Results The results tomorrow are predicted to show an increase of around 26% in PTP to 31.8m (DL forecast also quoted by Telegraph in posting below). Interestingly the increase in shares in issue since the 2014/15 finals due to recent issue is around 26% to 74.8m. That implies EPS remains around 33p as last year, although DL is showing a 38p forecast. Not sure how analysts are arriving at that (unless tax rate is significantly lower). 33 gives PE 11, 38 is sub 10. Possibly some significant exceptionals will sneak into the numbers in connection with the acquisition. Anyway I will be watching with interest but would not be too surprised to see a negative market reaction.H2
uselessbaba
31 May 2016
Second Private Rented Sector sale for £63.2 million TEF establishing a good presence in the growing PRS sector with some excellent strategic partnerships emerging........... Telford Homes Plc (AIM: TEF), the residential property developer focused on non-prime London, is pleased to announce that it has exchanged contracts for the sale of Carmen Street, E14, to M&G Real Estate, one of the UK's largest property investors and the real estate fund management arm of M&G Investments, a leading international asset manager controlling assets in excess of £246 billion. This is the Group's second transaction in the Private Rented Sector (PRS) comprising the freehold interest in the land and the construction of 150 open market homes together with commercial space for net consideration of £63.2 million. The site at Carmen Street was conditionally purchased by Telford Homes in November 2015 with completion taking place in April 2016. The sale to M&G is on a forward funded basis and will comprise an initial land payment followed by regular payments throughout the construction period and therefore will not require debt finance with only limited equity to be invested by the Group. The Carmen Street development has full planning permission to include a 22-storey tower and 206 new homes. The 56 subsidised affordable homes will be sold by Telford Homes in a separate transaction to a housing association. The development is anticipated to be completed in 2019. Telford continues to explore further PRS opportunities and the two transactions to date are just the start of the potential for PRS to become a permanent and more significant part of the Group's sales mix. The Board is also exploring whether longer term partnerships can be formed with institutional investors to enable further sales within a relatively fixed framework and to work together on future site acquisitions. Alex Greaves, Head of Residential Investment at M&G Real Estate, commented: "This partnership with Telford Homes marks a significant point in the evolution of our residential investment strategy. We have now invested in over 1200 units on behalf of UK and international institutional investors, including pension funds, insurance companies and local authorities. "We are thrilled to be working with Telford Homes and playing our part in increasing the supply of high quality, sustainable rental communities to London's housing market. With excellent access to transport, employment, and local amenities, this location and delivery partner is an excellent strategic fit. This deal adds scale and efficiency to our portfolio, brings additional homes to market and provides our investors with stable long-term income growth. We have really enjoyed working with Jon and the Telford team on this exciting scheme and hope this is the first of many deals." Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "We are delighted to be working with M&G, a leading international asset manager that is enthusiastically increasing its PRS portfolio. Forward funded PRS transactions offer strong returns and we are very pleased to have swiftly secured our second sale in the sector just a few months after the first. We hope to extend our relationship with M&G as new opportunities arise and as Telford Homes continues to broaden its sales mix with further de-risked forward funded PRS transactions. As previously stated, the Company will be reporting financial results for the year ended 31 March 2016 on Wednesday 1 June 2016."
Hydrogen Economy
30 May 2016
telford-homes-profiting-from-migration "Give me your trained, your wealthy, your pampered elite yearning for a free property market" Wednesday should be interesting.[link] Isabelle Fraser 28 MAY 2016 • 7
0PMTelford Homes, the east-London focused house-builder, is set to report big profits as it rides a wave of overseas investment and population growth.Pre-tax profits are expected to rocket 24pc from £25.1m to £31.8m when it reports full-year results on Wednesday.Jon Bell, an analyst at Barclays, said Telford “operates away from the eye of the storm” of the downturn in central London prime properties. Telford focuses on east London, with developments in Poplar, Canary Wharf and Stratford. The London borough of Tower Hamlets, where it has many sites, was revealed this week as having the fastest-growing population in the UK. It is set to rise by more than a quarter by 2024.The typical Telford home is below £600,000, at an average of £450,000 – well below the London mean of £534,785. This price point is also within the limits of Help to Buy London, a government scheme which provides a 40pc equity loan on a 5pc deposit for newly built homes. In 2015, the company sold 49pc of its homes to overseas buyers, up from 32pc in 2014.Anthony Codling, an analyst at Jefferies, said: “Of all the London players, Telford and Bellway [which builds in the same area] are least at risk of the pull-out of overseas investors,” because of the more affordable prices and higher rental yields. Telford’s share price has been relatively low, partly due to greater debt on its books than peers, and Mr Bell said that due to this “value has emerged”.
Hydrogen Economy
25 May 2016
Re: First purchase After last 12 month at bottom of the builders pack (20% down) TEF has been top riser over last 5 days (10%), even outstripping TW which peaked at 8% and then slipped back. Results due out on 1st June, I think they will be good which hopefully what has been driving SP of late, . DL are implying a final div of 7.3p making 13.8p for the year 3.8% yield, they may choose to pay more given cover is around 3x, depends if they see good land acquisition options. Eadwig, I would tend to agree that AIM status holds back SP and makes it more volatile, with Mkt Cap around 280m, I would think there is a case for TEF to get a full listing. Some cost, but would support valuation.I am comfortable holding I have a sneaking feeling that TEF will surprise over the coming 12 months- hopefully in a good way. H2
