Saigon Sally
05 Jan 2016
Midas Daily Mail From the DMHigh-rise profits are on the cards for housebuilder with £1.5bn land bank Telford Homes is a London property developer with a difference. Rather than focusing on sites in Central London and the City, it focuses on Inner London areas just outside the prime locations, where costs are lower and demand is immense.The shares are 391p and should increase materially over the next few years.Telford builds 600 to 700 homes a year, usually flats, but chief executive Jon Di-Stefano hopes to double that by 2020, taking advantage of a chronic shortage of affordable homes.Such is Di-Stefano’s confidence that the company raised £50million in October via a 360p-a-share equity placing to help fund future growth.Di-Stefano, an auditor by training, joined as finance director in 2002 and was promoted to the top in 2011. Over the years, his team has developed relationships across the capital, helping them to penetrate complex planning laws and gain permission to build. The group’s land bank is valued at £1.5billion, most of which has planning consent, and the rest is expected to obtain consent soon.To mitigate the risks associated with holding large swathes of land, Telford forward sells properties whenever it can, and has done so with homes worth £700million.Last month, the group revealed a more than doubling of pre-tax profits to £21million for the six months to the end of September and a 27 per cent increase in the interim dividend to 6.5p. Brokers expect full-year profits to rise by 27 per cent to £30.9million with a total dividend of 13.6p.Midas verdict: Telford’s shares rose to more than 480p last May, after the Conservatives’ General Election victory, but they have fallen back since on concerns about the London property market. The recent placing acted as a further drag and the stock is now excellent value. Older people may be leaving London but younger generations are flooding in and Telford aims to provide the kind of housing that they need. The shares also offer a decent yield. Buy.
Jackson59
17 Dec 2015
Re: 2016 Don't you think though that this share seems to defy analysis. The share price bobs up and down of its own accord, regardless positive and improving accounts?
poetles
17 Dec 2015
Re: 2016
5haggy
17 Dec 2015
Re: 2016 So, just a bit of a wild stab in the dark. Bit like any tipster - it could go up, it could go down but who knows?Any real analysis? No!
poetles
17 Dec 2015
2016 During 2016 I will expect Telford to peak at about 600p and then retrace back down to about 430p before going up again. I will just have to wait and see what happens
dazedandconfused
04 Dec 2015
Re: 21 Million Pounds Been a holder for some time like Eadwig since Olympics time highlighted their location to me. Since then both our kids have bought in Greenwich and Stratford (old houses to repair, not new) and I've been able to see the market waiting for Crossrail. Don't think TEL rely an awful lot on Buy to Lets but there will be a small downside there. Happy to hold but not increase for the moment.
Hydrogen Economy
03 Dec 2015
Re: 21 Million Pounds Surprisingly good results considering the negative comments about demand in London, clearly TEF strategy re affordable locations is paying off.TEF FY results have been weighted to H2 in last 2 years (FY at 2.48 and 2.67 x H1 for March 2014/2015). The Unitied House acquisition should increase earnings and the Government support for Mortgages on houses in London excluding the top end could have been written for TEF so should help. Offsetting that, tax moves on BTL may have some impact (not sure that was a big driver on TEF sales in London) and the share placing will dilute EPS. Even so if FY is between 2x and 2.7x H1 earnings that gives between 43 and 57p FY diluted EPS (March 16) or forward PE of 8.9 to 6.7 and a yield over 3.3%. Digital look has a 2016 FY EPS forecast of 37.8p which suggests to me that there will be some upgrades to follow once the analysts have found their calculators. Of course there are risks, interest rates, the high price of London properties, macro economic factors, terrorist threats, camel flu, currency shifts, political, economic social and technical (as the doomsters who make up the "Wail of Worry" will no doubt remind us) but TEF looks good value to me and I bought in today, my first TEF holding. Thanks to Eadwig for flagging the value of TEF on the BVS BB a couple of weeks back. H2
II Editor
02 Dec 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Telford Homes confirms profits surge " You would think LSE:TEF:Telford Homes is in something of a sweet spot. It builds homes in London, where affordable new homes are in short supply, and bosses said seven weeks ago that profit in the first half had more than doubled. That's just ..."[link]
Jackson59
02 Dec 2015
21 Million Pounds H1 pre tax profit, (more than doubled).
casabanker
23 Nov 2015
Re: Jim Slater I took Jim's advice and bought ITV and have never regretted the purchase. I saw his tip of TEF but by the time I looked to buy, the sp had risen to well over 400. It's looking interesting again now that the sp has fallen to the placing price. Jim....God bless.Casa.
Saigon Sally
23 Nov 2015
Re: Jim Slater And to judge by the TEF share price they seem to be shuffling off their mortal coil too.
Jackson59
23 Nov 2015
Jim Slater So did I. I enjoyed his articles. RIP.
Saigon Sally
20 Nov 2015
Jim Slater I bought TEF on Jim Slater's recommendation.[link] to see him go. I wonder if he can give us a recommendation from up there?!
Eadwig
20 Nov 2015
Re: placing Courtier,Looks like INL are getting the hammer today. It can only be because of the director sale, yet he still owns 7.5% of the company! Other directors plus him own a total of about 25%. I wish a few more of my companies had directors so invested in the game.I may well buy more there, although not the same sort of dividend encouragement TEF at these prices. Not that I'm stuck on dividends, but profits can't go on rising at the same rate forever and then we'll see the multiples being paid easing somewhat.I like your choices. I hold PSN (best of breed, in my opinion) and Bovis (not such great execution, being hammered by the markets also after a strong trading update) as well as TEF and INL. I sold all my BDEV having got in at an average @100p back in 2011. I also like ESP (Empiric Student Properties) for a different kind of play on property rental and what I see as a bull market in UK University education. High yield of 6% + rpi going forward with the 'chance' of NAV growth if property prices continue to increase. Looking to buy more after I missed their final IPO last month, but I don't think they've had a down day since.
Courtier1
19 Nov 2015
Re: placing yup - I may well buy some at below 360p. Next quarter traditionally strong for house builders and I think market is missing the bigger macro picture around earnings from the residential property market. For what it is worth for choice I currently like......Taylor WimpeyInlandTelford (below 360p)Barratt Dev
