Gamesinvestor1
03 Jun 2019
Results It is a curious strategy. I suspect they are working on the basis, rightly or wrongly, that it’s better to have these contracts at a lower margin than stand by and see the private sales market dry up, as it has been for them and ultimately starving their cash flow. They may be the last man standing if the market continues to decline. Games - well out of this market!
malj1
03 Jun 2019
Results Not quite. But they’re certainly following a truly weird strategy. Migrating from o/m to btr - ie shifting from 70% o/m/30% btr to target 30% o/m/70% btr. But operating margin is ca 24% in o/m & ca 12% in btr. So they need to double turnover in order to hold profits at best steady. Yes btr is low l/b & thus low capital & so high ROCE. But in house building profit accrues largely on the basis of land ownership. In btr you’re just a jobbing contractor - plenty of those around & lucky to make margins of 2%. V v odd.
Gamesinvestor1
29 May 2019
Results [link] still falling - 288 – down from a peak of 465 or a 39% drop. Growing revenue but falling profits - familiar pattern amongst housebuilders. Games
Ripley94
20 May 2019
AGM Statement TEF… XXXXX Five year lows.
Eadwig
04 Apr 2019
TEF - Poor trading update Strategic Move To Build-To-Rent Major Impacts: Lower margins, lower overall profit on any given scheme 2019 Profits below 2018, 2020 Profits below 2019, profit increases 2021 onwards and accelerating thereafter. Dividend expected to at least remain the same until profits increase (17pps) Reduced capital requirements and increased ROCE Much reduced risk, less cyclical Focus on an under-supplied and fast growing sub-sector Less debt requirement and reduced gearing Net Asset Value per share estimated at 31 March 2019 @330p per share. A share price of @280p gives an historic 6% yield. At the moment my thoughts are it is starting to look more like a REIT, but with a policy of paying out 30% profits in divis rather than the 90% required by a REIT. There is very strong support @260p which was the placement price prior to the last placement @360p but those prices were based on building to make high profit individual sales. I have holdings in both my ISA and SIPP accounts, both well under water with averages @346p and @372p respectively. The latter is only as ‘low’ as that after I sold a tranche @424p before the drops in recent months. It could be a long haul, but at least the intention to NOT lower the dividend will help.
Bowman
16 Oct 2018
TEF - Poor trading update Edison has a nice summary regarding TEF, which I received this morning. edisoninvestmentresearch.com Making progress, laying down markers | Telford Homes Telford Homes - Making progress, laying down markers
elliottsilverman
10 Oct 2018
@Bowman - true, but it does say " no reason to change our targets at this point" and "The interim dividend is proposed to increase in accordance with the anticipated full year profit growth" ... the market reaction seems a bit overdone - no?
Bowman
10 Oct 2018
TEF - Poor trading update Well there was an entirely predictable market reaction to today’s trading update [click to view] that despite including some positive statements came over as mildly downbeat. It does read like a precursor to a profit warning.
Eadwig
08 Jun 2018
Ex Div & Poilicy The Board's policy is to pay one third of earnings as dividends. Following the equity placing concluded in 2015 the Board committed to paying a higher dividend for the subsequent two years to remove the dilutive effect of the new shares, resulting in dividend payments in excess of 40 per cent of earnings.In the year to March 2018, the dividend is transitioning back to one third. As a result, a final dividend of 9.0 pence has been proposed which, together with the interim dividend of 8.0 pence paid on 12 January 2018, makes a total dividend for the year of 17.0 pence (2017: 15.7 pence). Earnings per share increased to 49.8 pence (2017: 36.8 pence) and therefore the dividend equates to just over 34 per cent of earnings.The final dividend is expected to be paid on 20 July 2018 to those shareholders on the register at the close of business on 8 June 2018. The ex-dividend date is 7 June 2018.
lawdoc
31 May 2018
Recommended by Tempus in The Times An article by Tempus in The Times today concludes:ADVICE Buy WHY Increasing exposure to the build to rent market and a strong development pipeline.Brokers rate it a Buy and with a Dividend yield of 4%, I'm in. It goes ex-div on 7th June. I find the TEF story attractive and as an AIM share it's free of IHT after holding for two years.
Eadwig
17 Nov 2017
Re: Really? P-E, "Don't buy now, buy when the price takes a hit in November on the trading update, is my advice - or anytime the price falls back towards @360p, come to that."Well I hold quite a lot of TEF in two accounts, and have been buying on pullbacks to that @360p level, but due to buying at the wrong time just before the placement and my poor management and trading since then, including reducing my position at a loss on one occasion, and not taking enough profit on others, I still have an average of @413p or so in my SIPP. @370p approx in my trading account, which is a lot more comfortable.I am unsure why the average TEF selling price has come down. I haven't analysed it but I would be surprised if they were making less profit. House prices have been shaved in london, but not in TEF's selling range I suspect. That's a guess though ... if only I had the time to look into it ...I am also short on FTSE 100 using UK3S (different to yours, possibly, there are a few of them). I have been to some degree for almost a year now, and its been a losing position - however, the fact I've held it has allowed me to feel free to go long on several stocks which have paid off well. Which is the idea of hedging, I suppose.Eadwig
PIE-EATER
12 Oct 2017
Re: Really? EadwigIn general I would agree.......to pick up on couple of your points...."Plus, the average selling price of TEF's affordable London homes has come down..."But what is the reason for this? Is it going to affect ROCE / net profits?"It seems a very odd market reaction - but then it isn't the first time in the last 18 months or so that I've noticed the market doesn't appear to be looking forward much more than a few days in many sectors."..........Isn't this the "wall of worry"......Brexit, Trump, Korea, Interest rates, GDP, the colour of Molly's kitchen wall? I would like to suggest there is more money on the sidelines than at a comparable stage in any bull run (and yes I know this is one of the longest) and everyone is looking for the first signs of a major pullback..........heck, even I have effectively just gone short on the FTSE buy buying 3UKS (leveraged short FTSE as I don't do CFD etc)"Don't buy now, buy when the price takes a hit in November on the trading update, is my advice - or anytime the price falls back towards @360p, come to that."AgreeGLA PE
Eadwig
12 Oct 2017
Really? Once again TEF issues a trading update saying everything is on target, but because of the way contracts fall (being a small company and not a major with completions naturally spread across the calendar year) H1 results will look poor by comparison to last year and the full results.They did this last year, but the final results came good. I'm involved with other smaller construction companies that also see the same phenomenon.Last year, the market knocked back the price on TEF at H1 and then boosted it at H2, providing a great buying (and profit-taking) opportunity.After the last trading update, it looks like they're gearing up to do exactly the same again. Don't buy now, buy when the price takes a hit in November on the trading update, is my advice - or anytime the price falls back towards @360p, come to that.It seems a very odd market reaction - but then it isn't the first time in the last 18 months or so that I've noticed the market doesn't appear to be looking forward much more than a few days in many sectors.I'll re-read the Trading Update just to be sure, and everyone else should too if they intend to buy, but I'm pretty certain already we're going to see a repeat pattern.Plus, the average selling price of TEF's affordable London homes has come down, and they're ideally placed to provide social housing for London boroughs that are to be provided with cash to achieve same. Al this can is surely only a plus in the current political climate ...Am I missing anything here?
fitcontroller
13 Jul 2017
sp why no big rise?, Galliford jumped 8% last week on similarly good results
Eadwig
29 Jun 2017
Re: Big Drop Recently UB, "This is just TEF doing what TEF does. Every year you have a sharp spike at results"Is this true I genuinely wonder? Because if you can predict something (the future) in the stock market then you can make a lot of money. So, in all ignorance, I'm now going to bring up the 5 year chart (I suspect the placings may mess up your theory)...... so much for that experiment - the in-line chart has come up blank!Hopefully it will show up for any readers. I would say there is some definite validity to UB's statement about a spike after results from what I can see in another charting tool.
