gamesinvestor
16 Feb 2015
Upgrade The company is expected to benefit from multiple tailwinds. Together with a now substantially greater possibility of a take-over attempt – given its current valuation - by US rival Bunge led analysts Alicia Forry and Eddy Hargreaves to up their recommendation on the shares to a ‘buy’ from a ‘sell’.In parallel, the price target for the stock was hiked to 650p from 530p.Among the potential positive catalysts for the stock cited were: the fact that a fourth profit warning in the near-term, following three over the last 12 months, appears low and the maker of sweeteners faces easy comparables in the next four quarters.A strengthening US dollar and a boost to co-product income from rising corn prices should also prove favourable.The low valuation of the shares, the stronger dollar and low interest rates, may all contribute to potential interest in a take-over bid from Bunge. At the moment Tate’s dividend yield – the company’s dividend pay-out as a proportion of its stock price – stands at 5%.Forry and Hargreaves estimated that Bunge might be willing to scoop up Tate & Lyle at a 40% premium. The purchase would give the American firm greater exposure to value-added ingredients and expand its presence in corn milling. That has long been an area of interest for Bunge.Games
nk1999
09 Feb 2015
Jefferies view FROM CITYWIRE:"Quick fix needed as Tate & Lyle soursA third profit warning in 12 months for Tate & Lyle (TATE) has led Jefferies to trim its target price for the food ingredients company.Analyst Martin Deboo cut his target price to 550p from 610p on the news, but kept his ‘hold’ rating. Shares in the company are down 13.1% at 576.3p since the warning, delivered on Friday.‘Tate has brought forward its third quarter [update] to disclose that full-year 2015 profit before tax is likely to be “modestly below” the guided range at the first half of the year to £245 million, despite better foreign exchange,’ said Deboo, pointing to US logistics problems and lower EU sweetener and ethanol margins. ‘These problems are set to persist into full-year 2016.’But Deboo urged investors not to panic, adding that the dividend appeared sustainable. ‘To maintain the dividend in full-year 2015, we estimate that Tate will have to sustain a 70% + payout and borrow to pay two-thirds. But with only 1x net debt: earnings and the potential to manage cash and capital more tightly in full-year 2016, these ratios relax quickly.‘Worth bearing in mind, then, that this remains a soundly-financed and well-invested business, with a coherent strategy and a growth track record in its core. The problems remain primarily those of execution, which should be fixable. But that fix most come, and come soon.’ "nk
Blanketstacker
06 Feb 2015
Re: 3rd Profit Warning Yes NK, a good thing to hold for now, and a lovely one to have bought into today at c560, but concensus estimates suggest dividend cover in three or four years time will be just one. They will either have to cut the dividend before that, or cut back on development spending. The latter would be a disaster in the longer term. They need to diversify successfully, not take on more failing enterprises from Europe or spend money on easily replicated technology. Currently this is a decent set up, and the profit warning is in reality a very mild one, but five years from now it may well be a different story. (The figure given would be post tax).
nk1999
06 Feb 2015
Re: 3rd Profit Warning Blanketstacker,They are expecting profits to be modestly below £230m. Let us say £225m. With £466m shares in ssue, this equates to pofit per share of over 48p.I am not sure whether they are referring to pre-tax profit or post tax here. Can anyone confirm please?But, in either case the dividend of 28p is well covered, and should be safe, unles things deteriorate further a lot. With 3 profit warnings already under their belt, that is unlkely to be th case?Just my view and happy to be corrected.nk
Blanketstacker
06 Feb 2015
Re: 3rd Profit Warning Ms G is using her technical analysis system, and she is very adamant that the story in any stock is largely irrelevant. Sometimes though, the story and the technicals coincide. Tate and Lyle have two main products: artificial sweeteners and bulk corn syrup. The problems are that the first has been massively undercut since c2009 by Chinese production. The latter is seriously under threat by the health lobby. The company has tried to diversify into bio products as various as pharmaceuticals and textiles. These, as far as I can see, have yet to yield any real profits. We are talking about a company here in serious, slow, perhaps inexorable, decline. "Out of strength came forth sweetness" , but that sweetness may ultimately now be a source of weakness here. (PS Figures suggest that the dividend will be unsustainable in about four years).
tejo
06 Feb 2015
3rd profit warning When the then new ceo joined from Reckitt Benckiser, I thought that TATE would be rejuvenated and would become a real growth stock. However, although the initial actions seemed promising, they now seem to have totally lost their way and a continued stream of errors and no sign of a solid platform for growth means I am out. Sold to-day. Sad.
gamesinvestor
06 Feb 2015
Re: 3rd Profit Warning "don't think that things are quite as bleak"I guess neither do these guys of late
9-Jan-15  Buy William ‘Bill’ Camp 647.92p 1,600 £10,366.72 05-Jan-15  Buy Javed Ahmed 602.80p 13,687 £82,505.23 05-Jan-15  Buy Peter Gershon 602.80p 1,407 £8,481.40 06-Nov-14  Buy Ginny Kamsky 606.07p 5,000 £30,303.50 29-Sep-14  Buy Ajai Puri 602.91p 4,000 £24,116.4 Games -- sometimes things come in 3's (like profit warnings) - and sometimes directors don't see the wood for the trees! -- I think Tate looks reasonably stable from here.
LK Hyman
06 Feb 2015
Re: 3rd Profit Warning Lambo,You've got the direction of travel mostly right since your £4 target set back in September, but I doubt that we're gonna get a "Bang on!" from you. I no longer hold Tate but I don't think that things are quite as bleak as your post this morning suggests.We shall see!LKH on the flybridge
lambrini girl
06 Feb 2015
Re: 3rd Profit Warning bounce areas...560...468..300...thats short..medium..long range targets
gamesinvestor
06 Feb 2015
3rd Profit Warning [link] it looks fairly modest.Still 14% drop in share priceGames
FRTEB
08 Jan 2015
Re: Dividend My TATE are held with TD Direct. The divi was there on the 2nd.ii have a reputation for being very slow to pay dividends and they have in the past received bad press for it. Their response was to the effect of "we were having problems but we're going to fix it" (not a quote - that was just the gist of what they said as I recall) but I still regularly see people complaining about the same thing so nothing has changed as far as I can tell. I suspect this is one reason why some people avoid holding investments with ii, which is shame given that they provide excellent discussion forums and their charges aren't too bad (not the best for many people though). Come on ii, get your act together and stop trying to profit from holding on to your client's dividends to earn a quick buck for yourselves.
drazzi
07 Jan 2015
Re: Dividend Yep, I;m with II too, still nothing, probably a waste of time trying to contact II to find out why, they will just ignore the mail/lose it/not answer the phone/not understand the question......
Heorot
07 Jan 2015
Re: Dividend I'm with The Share Centre. Got mine on 2nd Jan.
jamboni
07 Jan 2015
Re: Dividend I am with II. Nothing in my account
nk1999
07 Jan 2015
Re: Dividend Received mine on 2nd Jan.
