Medway Man
22 Nov 2016
Major Downgrade on Talk Talk see yesterdays posting on HL site below(ShareCast News) - Talk Talk's strategy of raising prices on a shrinking customer base was a poor proposition, even more so with growth in the overall market flat, analysts at Redburn said.Together with increased competition from the likes of Virgin Project Lightning and Vodafone, the prospects for the company were particularly grim, Nick Delfas said in a research report sent to clients.Indeed, Delfas expected the company's debt covenants to come increasingly into focus.Potential merger partners were also likely to wait for signs of greater sustainability in Talk Talk's subscriber base, robbing the shares' valuation of the support provided by the chance of a potential tie-up."As the business shrinks and debt rises, debt covenants will come into greater focus," he added.Nonetheless, "the necessity to combine with either O2 or Three is clear, but unfortunately for TalkTalk equity and bondholders, it is increasingly apparent that merger partners can wait this dance out for a little longer," Delfas said.The Redburn analyst cut his recommendation on the shares from 'neutral' to 'sell' while slashing his estimate of 'fair value' from 150p to 100p.Delfas also no longer expected Talk Talk to pay a dividend in fiscal years 2018 and 2019.
LoadsaDosh2
22 Nov 2016
Re: Drop ? Director sells were to cover tax on options; actually positive as they have retained the rest of the shares after selling enough to pay the tax.Why are all the brokers positive and yet the share price is falling off a cliff?
Spain Fund
22 Nov 2016
Drop ? Director selling big amount at 190p recently, big downgrade yesterday, lots of sells and Odey shorting amongst other things like hacking at Three.Latest broker viewsPrice Old target price New target price Notes16 Nov Barclays Capital Overweight 161.20 250.00 250.00 Reiterates14 Nov Deutsche Bank Buy 161.20 300.00 300.00 Reiterates07 Nov Haitong Securities Sell 161.20 150.00 150.00 ReiteratesSaw this yesterday Redburn sees TalkTalk ditching dividendsAlexander BuesoDate: Monday 21 Nov 2016LONDON (ShareCast) - (ShareCast News) - Talk Talk´s strategy of raising prices on a shrinking customer base was a poor proposition, even more so with growth in the overall market flat, analysts at Redburn said.Together with increased competition from the likes of Virgin Project Lightning and Vodafone, the prospects for the company were particularly grim, Nick Delfas said in a research report sent to clients.Indeed, Delfas expected the company´s debt covenants to come increasingly into focus.Potential merger partners were also likely to wait for signs of greater sustainability in Talk Talk´s subscriber base, robbing the shares' valuation of the support provided by the chance of a potential tie-up."As the business shrinks and debt rises, debt covenants will come into greater focus," he added.Nonetheless, "the necessity to combine with either O2 or Three is clear, but unfortunately for TalkTalk equity and bondholders, it is increasingly apparent that merger partners can wait this dance out for a little longer," Delfas said.The Redburn analyst cut his recommendation on the shares from 'neutral' to 'sell' while slashing his estimate of 'fair value' from 150p to 100p.Delfas also no longer expected Talk Talk to pay a dividend in fiscal years 2018 and 2019.
Damp Seaweed
22 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 It is pretty obvious that the share is being sold down very aggressively. The volumes are a bit higher than average. As to whether it is simply some folk offloading or something more nefarious, I couldn't say.As everyone knows a divi is due, and they are not buying into it. It would seem quite possible that the sell off will continue well beyond the ex divi.I'm nursing severe losses on this at the moment. But can see no justification to be selling up. Equally I shall not be buying until we have seen the last of this, near capitulation, and a recovery is well under way.Incidentally I think the trigger for this was the statement from the management that profits would be at the lower end of the guidance. And that was followed swiftly by the management selling a chunk of the free shares that they had just been awarded......... hardly inspires confidence !
dkok
22 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 VeksiI think it is actually someone, maybe Capital Group, who is using programmatic bots to push the price down in order to get shares cheaper. Capital Group have taken on 4.7M shares in the last few days to take their holding to over 15% for their various funds, which must now be giving them a good average dividend rate, plus the potential for any pop up in share price if the rumours of takeover are true.It could also be a third party simultaneously building a stake and reducing the cost of a takeover using the same tactics, as it has been pretty relentless for the past week or two. I have tucked a few into the SIPP as at these levels with the DIVI yield it is a no-brainer, at least it would be if the price wasn't being manipulated down so ruthlessly, it is just a case of trying to spot the bottom before maybe adding a few more.Even if the DIVI got cut in half, it would still be outstripping bank interest tenfold, and if the rumours are correct then there should be upside potential, not even taking into account the statement that full year results should be positive.GLTAdkok
veksi
22 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 Well maybe not.Someone seems to want to get out asap.
veksi
22 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 Still sinking.But I'm guessing will finish today in the blue.Some divi chasers are gonna bite.
shugg1e
21 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 Fresh air until next support at 123p now support has failed at 180p
Nogger2
21 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 Not sure that the market is pricing in a dividend cut, but rather, perhaps, worried about earnings growth. According to Investor's Chronicle, one broker is forecasting eps of 11.3p for full year 2016, which would give a prospective pe of around 16 at today's price.But I think worries are overdone - the product offering is good and recovery from past woes is achievable - the tone of the half year statement is encouraging. Long term, your purchase at 184.67 should be rewarded, and in the meantime, there's the dividend.Nogger
veksi
21 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 Me too got some at 173.8p.Market pricing in a cut in dividend.The company insists that it's not going to get cut, who knows?Either way, looks like good value. Yield at the current sp is over 9%, so even halving that is better than market average. Made me feel better that I do have talktalk broadband and phone, I got no intention of leaving, all works well for me.HSBC was "bound" to cut divi, didn't happen, sp shot up from 430p to 630p virtually in a straight line. These are difficult to call, but sometimes market gets it wrong.My main concern would be, does Talktalk have any cash?
Teddybass
16 Nov 2016
Re: Bought more @ 184.67 Me too .. Tucked into a few at this price from Mr Market .. In spite of poor basic IT management and governance procedure not being implemented to allow the hack .. Likely maybe for a takeover rather than any Tescoesque creative work to boost the SP ..!
Spain Fund
15 Nov 2016
Is VOD or TALK the better bet after todayÂ’s results? Just saw this so no influence on earlier buy.[link] we have two of our big telecoms giants going head to head with first-half results. Which is the better investment now?In the red corner…Shares in Vodafone Group (LSE: VOD) had lost 10% between 28 October and close of play on Monday.But interim results provided a boost of 1.5%, to 208p, this morning, despite intense competition devastating the company’s Indian operations — newcomer Reliance Jio Infocomm is offering cut-price packages and has even offered introductory free mobile calls. As a result, Vodafone has taken a writedown of €5bn in the country.But strengthening in Europe led to a 4.3% rise in first-half organic EBIDTA to €7.9bn, which exceeded analysts’ forecasts. The firm has narrowed its full-year EBITDA guidance to the €15.7-€16.1bn range, and suggests free cash flow of at least €4bn.Chief executive Vittorio Colao told us that “…we expect to sustain our underlying performance in the second half of the year and remain on track to meet our full-year objectives despite macroeconomic uncertainties“.I have little doubt that Vodafone will build upon the double-digit growth rates currently forecast for the next two years, but two things disturb me.A dividend yield of better than 6% looks good on the face of it, but it’s only around half covered by earnings. The cash is there to pay it, but I look for dividends that actually represent sustained earnings and I have no visibility of when that will happen at Vodafone.P/E multiples of 30 and 26 for this year and next also look too high. Vodafone shares still seem to be rated at takeover-hope levels, and that suggests precious little growth in the medium term — we’ve only seen a 15% gain over the past five years.Profit up, shares downIt seems like only yesterday that Talktalk Telecom Group (LSE: TALK) was being pummeled by the hacking disaster, giving its already-beleaguered shares a further clobbering.The price has been flat overall since the start of January, and had given up 46% over the past five years. And then today, on the release of first-half results, we saw a 5.8% fall to 189p, despite the company’s announcement of a more-than-doubling of operating profit to £60m (excluding exceptionals). On the same basis, pre-tax profit trebled to £46m, with basic earnings per share also trebling to 3.7p. The interim dividend is unchanged at 5.29p.Last year’s hack lost the company around 100,000 of its customers, but attempts to reassure those who remained seem to be paying off as churn was reduced in the second quarter to 1.43% — with chief executive Dido Harding saying that “One year on from the cyber attack, we have maintained a relentless focus on looking after our existing customers“. The company’s new Fixed Low Price Plans should attract newcomers looking for best value deals too.With Talktalk now expected to “deliver materially higher full year profits than last year” and with debt coming down nicely, how do the shares look?We have EPS growth forecasts that would drop the P/E to 12 by March 2018, and dividends look set to yield around 7%. Again I think that’s too much cash to be handing out as it’ll only just be covered by earnings, but dividends are not as stretched as Vodafone’s.While I see Vodafone as an undoubtedly strong long-term company, on valuation and recovery grounds, Talktalk has my vote right now.
Spain Fund
15 Nov 2016
Bought more @ 184.67 Just under 2000 shares
Spain Fund
30 Oct 2016
Questor Extract from article yesterday in the TelegraphBut Questor thinks it is time to hang up on BT in favour of a smaller rival. The FTSE 100 telecoms giant faces undercutting from upstart rivals including TalkTalk. A persistent battle with the regulator over its broadband network and a bulging pensions deficit makes BT’s shares look risky over the long term.Challenger threatOne of these is TalkTalk, best-known for falling victim to a crippling cyber-attack last October which cost it £42m to fix, 101,000 customers and a £400,000 fine from the Information Commissioner.Questor advised investors to hold the FTSE 250 group last May. There is speculation it is in the sights of Iliad, the French telecoms group, as well as British provider Vodafone.TalkTalk shares have fallen 21pc over the past year to stand at £2.03. But considering the fall-out from the breach, and a possible bounce from bid speculation, it looks like there is room to grow.
Spain Fund
11 Oct 2016
UK ICO issues largest ever fine Interesting where the data breach was [link] Kingdom October 10 2016The UK Information Commissioner's Office (the "ICO"
has issued a record fine of £400,000 to a UK telecoms company, in connection with a data breach that took place in October 2015. The fine, and the related adverse publicity, serve as a stark warning to companies that fail to implement appropriate data security measures.On 5 October 2016, the ICO issued a Monetary Penalty Notice, imposing a £400,000 fine on TalkTalk Telecom Group PLC ("TalkTalk" in respect of a data breach that affected over 156,000 customers who had their personal data stolen, including over 15,000 customers whose bank account details were also taken. The ICO's investigation concluded that TalkTalk could have prevented the attack if it had had the correct security measures in place.The fine is the largest to be imposed by the ICO to date. The ICO currently has the power to issue fines of up to £500,000. However, under the General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR" enforcement of which begins on 25 May 2018, the ICO will be able to impose fines of up to the greater of €20 million or 4% of worldwide turnover, dramatically escalating the potential financial consequences of failing to comply with data protection law.The ICO investigationThe cyber attack took place between 15 and 21 October 2015, targeting three particularly vulnerable web pages that were part of an infrastructure that had been inherited by TalkTalk when it acquired the UK operations of Tiscali in 2009. TalkTalk was unaware that these webpages were still available on the internet and that they provided access to an underlying database of customer information.The company also said it was unaware that, at the time of the attack, the three webpages were affected by a bug that allowed hackers to bypass access restrictions using a technique called SQL injection. The ICO investigation noted that this is a common technique used by hackers, and found that the bug could have easily been removed by applying a fix that had been available since 2012. TalkTalk had been the victim of two other attacks earlier in 2015, one of which had successfully used the same SQL injection technique.The ICO found that TalkTalk had committed a serious contravention of the seventh data protection principle (which requires businesses to implement appropriate technical and organisational security measures to protect personal data). While the ICO noted that the contravention was not deliberate, it concluded that TalkTalk should have been aware of the risks, and found that there was no good reason why TalkTalk had failed to implement the necessary security measures.The ICO concluded that a monetary penalty would be "fair and just" in this case, and would serve as a reminder of the need to ensure that appropriate and effective security measures are implemented in order to protect personal data.Lessons for businessesThe nature of today's interconnected world is that companies with large datasets are increasingly likely to face attacks from malicious third parties who are seeking access to those data. It is incumbent upon businesses to ensure that they take the necessary measures to ensure the security of personal data. Failure to do so is likely to attract ever-increasing attention from the ICO and other Data Protection Authorities. TalkTalk provides a salutary example of the dangers that businesses face – particularly because the fact that the relevant security failures were unintentional did not attract much sympathy from the ICO.Quite apart from the financial consequences of any fines, TalkTalk has received a significant volume of adverse publicity as a result of the data breach. TalkTalk also released a Trading Update in which it indicated that it had lost 101,000 customers in "response to the cyber attack". In many cases, the cos
