johnjohns
17 Jan 2020
Sirius I’ve kept the lot, I’d written them off, anything is now a bonus.
icebilly
17 Jan 2020
Sirius I am still holding some shares in case we get a surprise before the 5th, IB
johnjohns
17 Jan 2020
Sirius Jefferies seems to be increasing its holding. Check out today’s rns and yesterday’s !!
picstIoup
16 Jan 2020
Sirius Very sad. It seems Fraser and the team just weren’t quite up to the (very ambitious) task of delivering this project and have had to send for the grown-ups. I’m building a small stake in AAL as I still believe in this project and think they may have the bargain of the century on their hands. And I’ll probably put my sxx 5.5p if/when it comes through into Anglo as well.
icebilly
16 Jan 2020
Sirius News item on Reuters 2 days ago. and revelation like “Sirius in discussions for 9 Months†, also words of “significant discount†“a rare chance to buy near the bottom of the market†!!! Offer likely to be confirmed in coming days - sources Anglo and Sirius in talks for 9 months - sources Anglo unlikely to increase bid value - sources By Barbara Lewis and Clara Denina LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Anglo American Plc is likely to confirm a deal to buy fertiliser company Sirius Minerals Plc for more than $500 million excluding debt, ahead of an early February deadline to finalise its bid, three sources close to the matter said. Anglo said on Jan. 8 it was in advanced talks over a 5.5 pence ($0.7138) cash offer for the venture that is Britain’s biggest mining project. Sirius’ share price rose more than a third when Anglo announced its indicative offer and it closed at 5.4 pence on Tuesday. The company has until Feb. 5 to make a firm offer or walk away, but a bid is likely in the coming days, the sources said. Anglo declined to comment and Sirius was not immediately available to comment. A deal would throw a lifeline to Sirius and is politically resonant as it would save hundreds of jobs in northern England, where the lack of opportunities was an issue in the election that returned Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to power. It would also diversify Anglo American’s portfolio and mark its return to fertiliser. It sold its remaining fertiliser project in Brazil in 2016 when it was recovering from a commodity market crash. Sources said the two companies have been in talks for the last nine months. They said Anglo is unlikely to increase its offer. “There is significant value that Anglo can capture with the discount that Sirius trades at, because they can bring financing and knowledge on how to push the project forward,†said RBC analyst Tyler Broda. Anglo will have to invest more than $3 billion over five years. This is modest compared with the $8.8 billion cost of its Minas Rio iron ore project in Brazil, which it bought at the top of the cycle. Sirius has struggled to get bank financing to complete its project since fundraising with retail investors in 2017. It embarked on a review after scrapping a plan to raise $500 million in a bond sale. The share price fell more than 80% in 2019. The sources also said Sirius was unlikely to get a better offer. Anglo last week said Sirius provided a rare chance to buy near the bottom of the market. The project could also help Anglo move away from more polluting assets, notably coal, as investors demand miners become more climate aware.
Ripley94
12 Jan 2020
Tipped today as a speculative buy SXX… XXXX This is what Motley published one day before offer on the 8th January 2020. Here’s how much £1K invested in Sirius Minerals shares a year ago would be worth today. Ouch! Edward Sheldon, CFA | Tuesday, 7th January, 2020 | More on: SXX Close up shot of senior couple holding hand. Loving couple sitting together and holding hands. Focus on hands.Image source: Getty Images. For years now, Sirius Minerals (LSE: SXX) – which is developing the world’s largest and highest-grade deposit of polyhalite (used to make fertiliser) in North Yorkshire – has been one of the most popular stocks on the London Stock Exchange. Clearly, many UK investors see Sirius as a stock with huge, life-changing potential. Yet as you are probably aware, the shares have delivered disappointing returns for investors recently. Here’s a look at how much £1,000 invested in SXX shares a year ago would be worth today. Disappointing year One year ago, Sirius shares were changing hands for around 22p. Had you invested £1,000 in the stock at the time, you would have picked up around 4,545 shares (I’ll ignore trading commissions for simplicity). Looking at Sirius’s one-year share price chart, there would have been several occasions when you were actually sitting on a profit had you bought this time last year. For example, in April, the shares briefly spiked up to around 27p on the back of optimism over a funding deal for the company. However, the second half of 2019 was nothing short of a disaster for the stock, as the company cancelled a planned $500m bond sale (it needed to raise this cash to get access to £2.5bn in funding from JP Morgan) due to global market conditions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit. This saw SXX shares plummet to near 2p at one stage. Large losses Today, SXX shares trade for 3.8p. This means that, had you bought a year ago, you’d now be sitting on a loss of approximately 83% (note that I have ignored the $425m equity raise in May that enabled institutional investors to pick up shares at 15p, as well as the one-for-22 open offer to existing shareholders in order to keep things simple). Of course, as Sirius is not yet profitable, there are no dividends here to soften to blow. So that means that your £1,000 investment in SXX would now be worth just £170. Ouch. Takeaways So what are the lessons we can learn from SXX’s collapse? Well, to my mind, the biggest takeaway is that investing in smaller companies (particularly those that have no revenues or earnings) can be risky. With these types of companies, you should only invest what you can afford to lose. To reduce your risk, it’s sensible to diversify your capital over many different companies. Secondly, Sirius’s collapse highlights the risks associated with investing in small mining companies. While there’s certainly money to be made investing in small-cap miners, it’s important to be aware that these stocks are notoriously volatile. With miners, there’s an awful lot that can go wrong. Quite regularly, small firms in the sector experience operational or funding challenges. Ultimately, if you’re looking to make big gains from smaller companies, I think you’re better off focusing on entities, outside the mining sector, that are already profitable and growing quickly. Investing in these kinds of businesses has certainly worked for me. They then tease you with advise about another great share to buy , but you have to sign up.
icebilly
12 Jan 2020
Sirius Hi BB. No, I am not adding, just holding my remaining shares after selling another 50% at 5.5p. Sold earlier 50% on the way down. it’s just wait and see if we do get another bidder. But very disappointed for all PIs. One RNS thing, all these RNS share declaration notifications show how wide spread Fund investments had been and expected big things from SXX. The nearer its gets to crunch time, the more they will plump for 5.5p when the vote comes. Cheers IB.
Boring_Bernie
11 Jan 2020
Sirius icebilly: You would think AA can’t be the only interested party. That’s possible Billy, but the tone of the RNS suggests that there’s unlikely to be anyone else coming in at above 5.5p. Obviously if you’re reasonably confident of a better offer being made, then you could make a nice little earner by buying up shares now. If you’re adding to your holding, then I hope it turns out well for you BB
frog_in_a_tree
11 Jan 2020
Sirius Food for thought: [link] Cheers, Frog in a tree
icebilly
11 Jan 2020
Sirius AA have till Feb 5th to confirm a firm bid. More waiting time. Yes, lots of shafting, but not on site. Whom ever gets the mine will have 100 years of big profits, that’s why Mining analysts were advising valuations of £1.22 per share for this low cost product once the mine was built. You would think AA can’t be the only interested party. IMHO. IB.
freedom-thirty5
10 Jan 2020
Sirius icebilly: RNS this morning is listed for potential offer from “Angle American†for whole company at 5.5p per share. This has got to draw out other bidders. The share offer needs to be a lot higher, as the company profit potential at full production is huge in the billions. 5.5p is not acceptable!. Very cheeky. IMHO. IB So this is how the SXX investment story ends. It’s been quite a story over the last 11 years I’ve been involved. I haven’t held any shares since 2013, when I sold everything for a pretty big profit (held at 7p, sold in 2 tranches one @ apprx 30p and the other @apprx 18p). SXX has been a munter of as an investment prospect since those days, but the good news is that the mine will go ahead of the acquisition goes through, so that’s good for the local & UK economy, but investors have been rinsed (as they should have seen coming).
gary1
09 Jan 2020
Sirius I’m aware that a lot of PI’s are nursing heavy paper losses at moment, however, seems a bit pointless selling at first sign of serious interest from a white night. I appreciate that some may be financially vulnerable or have lost all appetite for risk, but for those who have approached sxx as the speculative investment it always has been, then there may still be some excitement ahead. With BHP also having interest in this sector and potentially investing $4.7bln in their Canadian mine (still at feasibility stage) its seems inconceivable to me that they would sit back and allow AA to obtain competing assets at a significant discount. Allowing a significant capital cost advantage to a competitor would be risky if not down right negligent. If I were on the BOD of BHP I would be doing all I could to mitigate the situation. To even feign an interest in sxx would likely increase to cost for AA. You never know, they may have genuine interest in sxx. Still worth holding to see in my book. I am in the lucky position of only buying in on 6th November last year and in rather modest numbers so don’t have the financial losses weighing on my decision.
icebilly
09 Jan 2020
Sirius I stated out the fact, that after all the millions spent on current construction, any bidders are getting the mine at a discount and very cheap. See statement from Tom Winnifrith as below from Ripley’s post. " In paying c£400 million for the equity plus taking on some convertible debt, it is splashing out far less than Sirius has already sunk into the ground." Market Cap mining companys are AA £30Bill. RIO £75Bill. BHP £90Bill. AA may confirm their 5.5p bid, but there are others out there. It is up to the individual to make their mind up. IMHO. IB
Boring_Bernie
08 Jan 2020
Sirius icebilly: Leaving time for another big boy to bid, and still get the mine at an amazing cheap price. Anything up to 10p is still peanuts to other Global miners. I hope for your sake, and anybody that’s badly down on Sirius that I’m wrong, but I think your statement here is borderline delusional.
Ripley94
08 Jan 2020
Tipped today as a speculative buy SXX… XXXXX… Here is what Winnifrith had to say . Ill have to look back to see if i can find the guy who pointed out the financing worry years back. Sirius Minerals – a bad day at the office for we bears – 5.5p takeover by Anglo, mine to go ahead By Tom Winnifrith | Wednesday 8 January 2020 33 Shares Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The talks are advanced but it looks odds on as if Sirius Minerals (SXX) will get bought out at 5.5p per share by Anglo American (AAL). I guess that explains the very strong share price over the past few days, not that there is ever any insider dealing in London.This news shows a few things. a) Those who paid up to 44p per share for the stock, will not lose everything, just most of their cash. Something is better than nothing for the 85,000 on the shareholder list but in man y cases not a lot better. b) The mine will almost certainly be built, Anglo’s cost of capital is lower and so it probably can make a return on this. In paying c£400 million for the equity plus taking on some convertible debt it is splashing out far less than Sirius has already sunk into the ground. For those like my first cousin once removed, farming just down the road I doubt the news that the project goes ahead will be seen as great news. c) We bears get it wrong just now and again. It was one of the two Lucian Miers sells of the year at 3.5p. These things happen. Anglo could have offered 1p for the equity and Sirius would probably have had to agree as its back was very firmly against the wall. But a few hundred million extra is nothing to Anglo and, almost certainly, makes this a done deal. Lucian says sorry, he shares your pain although as a bear from far far higher levels ( as was I) overall we called this right d) Those who advocated that the Government bail out Sirius are again shown to be clowns. If the project was worthless no-one would have nibbled so why should taxpayers hand over cash. If it had a value, as it appears to, capitalism sorted out the problem. e) There is never any insider dealing in London The shares are now 5.45p suggesting this is a done deal. PS . One of the a) to e) statements above is untrue. Can you guess which one?
