OmarInvestor
28 Jan 2016
The market we are in Junior Exploration Companies have definitely not been the right business to be in in the last few years.Their business model depends on selling their prospective mineral entitlements directly or indirectly to large mining companies wanting to maintain their pipeline of projects so that they (the large mining companies) have new mines ready to come on line in five or ten years when the existing mines come to the end of their lives.The trouble is at the moment, the falling commodity prices are not only bad in themselves. Large mining companies at the moment are themselves struggling and putting cash into developing their pipeline of projects for five or more years down the line is a complete no no.Many of Starvest's investee companies are therefore in a very bad situation - their assets are not saleable.Still, if the market has realised this and marked down the prices of junior exploration companies accordingly, there is no need to apply a further large discount to the market value of shares in Starvest so it is trading at only half of its net asset value or thereabouts.And Kefi, Ariana and Oracle do not appear to be dependent on selling their exploration prospects to a deep-pocketed mining company interested in a five year view...Omar
W8ANDC
28 Jan 2016
Dumfounded by Dummy Sells Imagine if someone went back to the 17/08/11 and checked the buy/sell recommendations of mainstream brokers in the commodities and metals sectors, how many would be accurate? And how many people would see the market as a continous flow uninterrupted by fluctuations of world supply and demand? Well that is what some dummy - who will remain nameless - has done. Shortly after my 2011 buy rec on this stock I sold out because I had made my 'gilt edged' 20%. As an investor not a speculator that's what I sort as a good return on £10000 investment. The signs were changing and risk was returning so I exited.My next post on SVE was a 'weak buy' rec made in 2014 - OVER 2.5 YEARS LATER - when I bought just15,000 shares under 4p. My next small purchase was a year later in 03/15 when for my criteria it came back on the radar. My average after low buys is now in the low 2p's and I have every expectation of getting my sort of return from one or more holdings in this portfolio breaking out within the normal cycle.When.a nameless dummy who doesn't know a companies holdings and has clearly not read the notes from the AGM starts making recommendations you have to question their motivations and why they have the need - and the time - to truck back to 2011 to try and save face. Time and market trends will determine the outcome here not any number ofvamateur or - sub amateur - posts. I just happen to believe there are 3 rabbits to be pulled out of this hat in the short to mid term. As always do your own research
OmarInvestor
27 Jan 2016
Re: At 12.5p - 13p this is gilt edge buy In Ariana's report of its major shareholders in July 15 it reported Starvest as holding 2.9% of its shares.In the January 16 shareholder's letter it said it was sticking to its existing guidance, which is of production of 20,000 ounces per annum from Red Rabbit at a cash cost of $600 per ounce.With today's gold price of ~$1100 this gives profit per ounce of $500.Ariana has 50% of Red Rabbit.Ignore overheads and tax (probably no immediate tax due to start up costs - overheads will offset Ariana's other assets).$500 profit per ounce x 20,000 ounces gives $10 million profit per annum.Apply a PE ratio of 8 and Ariana's share is worth $10 million x 8 x 50% = $40 million.Starvest's 2.9% share is worth $1.1 million or around £0.75 million. This compares to Starvest's own market capitalisation of £0.7 million.So to justify the view that Starvest is currently overvalued, even if all its other investments are worthless, it will be necessary to explain why Ariana are not going to deliver what they have reaffirmed a fortnight ago that they still believe they are going to delivery.Omar
one4all
27 Jan 2016
Re: At 12.5p - 13p this is gilt edge buy what is starvests holding in Ariana. Cant see them listed in major sharerholders list
OmarInvestor
27 Jan 2016
Re: At 12.5p - 13p this is gilt edge buy Ariana in their shareholders' letter of 16 January 16 re-affirmed their expectation that their Red Rabbit project is going to achieve first pour later this year.The gold price has risen somewhat in the last month, from $1070 thirty days ago to $1120 today.What exactly does Oneforall think is going to go wrong to justify the present Ariana share price and to explain why the current Starvest price is underrated? And when is it going to do so?My back of the envelope still suggests that if Ariana do what they say they are going to do with gold at its present price, Starvest's holding in that company alone is worth more than Starvest's current share price and any value extracted from the other holdings is a pure bonus.Omar
one4all
27 Jan 2016
Re: At 12.5p - 13p this is gilt edge buy funny how you can have a pop at me when I say SELL , you have been telling folk to buy this junk since it was 13p, they listen to you they would have lost 90% of value, so as they say, a broken clock is right twice a day, this may get low enough for it to start to go up, but I dont think thats any time soon and the NAV is fairly valued at present.. I see 1 p soon and looking at the spread ( 50%,JOKE) the MM's have no appetite for this junk..
W8ANDC
21 Jan 2016
Gold Rabbits One4all and you were doing so well as a ;profit of doom; but just had to push that chip just a little too far. There will be rabbits coming out of the hat at both Kefi and Ariana:in the next year: gold ones! At the prices seen over the last few days for you to post a 'sell' is simply gratuitous - both kefi and Ariana were virtually unmoved. And at these levels the SP is so far below NAV that any positive news will spark an instant correction.I still believe I will see a medium term profit as I have bought all the way down to 1.68 and critically expect to see break even again soon. If you were a proper investor it would have been the time to post a hold and not to look like the 'grinch' by posting an opportunistic 'sell'.And just think you could have saved all the high blood pressure and angst trying to find a suitable rebuttal to this post.To normal people reading this: I realise there has been a marked correction in commodities BHP Billiton (£30.00 down to £6.00) and I have reinvested at the tail end of this stock but this has to be the time to take stock - and invest for the future - and I like this one. And Ariana and Kefi (my big buy) at 0.29p.
one4all
18 Jan 2016
Re: Ariana stake there is no rabbit being pulled out of this hat. 60% down since I last told you to sell
OmarInvestor
06 Nov 2015
Ariana stake Ariana's Red Rabbit project has cleared all the hurdles at which it was likely to fall. Now they are constructing the mine, there seems at least a 75% chance it will come into production next year as planned.I believe they hold a 50% stake.On very broad brush assumptions. Ignore overheads on the basis that Ariana has other projects whose value may balance off. Ignore tax on the basis that the costs of developing the mine presumably have created losses forward.We are told costs are estimated to be $600 an ounce. The present price is ~$1100 an ounce. They are anticipating initial production of 20,000 ounces a year.Gives Ariana's profit 50% * $500 * 20,000 = $5,000,000 pa.Apply a PE ratio of 8 and Ariana's stake is worth about $40 million, say £25 million.Starvest hold 3% so worth around £0.7 million against Starvest's current market capitalisation of £1.0 million.Anyone still wondering why Bruce Rowan thinks it is worth taking a risk in order to increase his stake at 3p a share even though that is above the current market price?Omar
OmarInvestor
05 Nov 2015
Administration costs From last year's accounts, the admin expenses were largely directors' fees £90,000, audit fees £15,000, non-audit fees paid to the auditors £15,000 (presumably a large element of tax compliance feees) and an office for Bruce Rowan £18,000.There must be secretarial support fees for the directors also, but I guess that the bulk of the additional £100,000 would have been the costs of running a publicly quoted company - fees to the NOMAD, Stock Exchange fees and the Share Registrars' fees for keeping the share register.Omar
one4all
04 Nov 2015
Re: Thresholds and new cycles so they sneak their results out on a wet Wednesday evening showing a loss of portfolio ot 75% of value to a paltry £1.15mill. with their admin expenses...???( what admin expenses does it need to buy 8 stocks , sit on them and watche them go down the plug hole?) I have more in y pension pot invested and it tales me a laptop on the kitchen table.. so why they need to burn £250k of investors money is beyond me that a management fee of 25%.. good luck with that. To tell you that sorry but the oil price has affected our investents,. well maybe they shouldbe actively managing this and selling out based on macro economic veiws I meann its not like this just happened overnight. How can people get away with buring 75% of your investment.. its not like a trading company hits bad times . THIS IS MEANT TO BE A PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT VEHICLE FFS> how have the FCA not jailed some of these clowns
OmarInvestor
31 Oct 2015
Results expected soon The earlier statement from the company said they expected to report their full year results "This month" which presumably means they will be out on Monday.Perhaps we will get some clarification on what the effect of "Mark to Market" will be. Much of the huge rise in Starvest's net asset value was the result of the roller cost ride in Nordic Energy's share price which rose seven fold for no apparent reason as disclosed on their website and has now fallen to a seventh of what it had been ie back to where it was also for no apparent reason.Possibly the directors of Starvest had their doubts about the rise and so did not include all of it in Starvest's own net asset valuation so perhaps the effect of moving to mark to market will not be as dramatic as they would have been. This is pure speculation on my part and perhaps we will have a better picture on Monday.I note that Bruce Rowan who is not a sillly man thought that it was worth extending a £100,000 interest free unsecured loan to the company in return for the right to convert this to shares in the company at 3p a share so he would seem to have a belief that the shares represent good value at their present level.Omar
OmarInvestor
26 Oct 2015
Mark to market In the accounts for 30 June 14 which were published a year ago, it mentioned that new accounting rules were coming in which meant that from 1 Oct 15 "mark to market" would have to be used for valuing the portfolio rather than the lower of cost, directors' valuation and market.It was said then that if it had been introduced then the disclosed value of the portfolio would have increased from ~£4 million to ~£6 million.Presumably much of the tumble in the net asset value over the last year has been the collapse of Nordic Energy from ~7p to 1p and (I am guessing here) the Nordic Energy shares will continue to be reported at the same value under the new rules.Presumably the 30 June 15 accounts will be out in the next week or so and we should have some guidance on how they would have looked under the rules which will apply from the Dec 15 interims onwards.OmarOmar
one4all
20 Aug 2015
Re: Thresholds and new cycles yeh so 30% more lost on those who invested in july well done. so please dont listen to me
W8ANDC
10 Jul 2015
Thresholds and new cycles Everyone ...we have seen individuals like One4all come and go before and his litany of you've got to be 'joking' comments. Best ignored as there is nothing to learn from him. Just read a few of his posts. My point is Starvest is an investor in early exploration and has a diverse portfolio which it has chosen to support over the long term because it believes in their mission and their future prospects - and this even though since 2008 early starters and explorers have found fund raising hard and the markets severe. This admittedly - baring those important bounce backs - has led to a long term share price decline.I have bought and sold throughout this long cycle of constant pressure and still I remain ahead. I have not held like some 'committed' individuals over the long term and wouldn't do so within this sector. However simply put at these prices and with some of the core companies making good progress this for me is the time to buy. IMHO.And that's what it is my opinion. So whatever jokes one4all tells it will make no difference to me and everyone needs to do there own research and base their decisions on the risk profile and opportunity, not on extraneous directions from faceless commentators.I look to be in a position of healthy profit on my most recent investments by April 2016. Perhaps earlier.
