Sierra Rutile Live Discussion

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Donatron 09 Nov 2015

Some SRX articles Following on from the analyst presentations, this one shows the company's expected rutile prices:[link] to increase from middle of next year say the company.Additionally, with the welcome news that SL is now Ebola free, John Sisay and the company are in articles in Forbes and the NY Times:[link] helps to raise the profile of the company (and no doubt to raise the profile of John Sisay).

donkey derby 07 Nov 2015

Ebola declared over Well done to the people and for the efforts of the British support units.

donkey derby 03 Nov 2015

Re: expansion forwardloop's post of 18.06.15 attaching the proactive article and interview of J Sisay of 17.06 makes this stock compelling imo.

donkey derby 02 Nov 2015

Re: Investec cut price target to 28p My comment on the dividend is my reading between the lines from the presentation. The answer must be dependent on the amount if any of a net profit.I agree with your view regarding the movement of prices where there is not much liquidity. Having said that when buyers appear sellers appear as is shown by this evening's sale. It is as if some party is trying to control the price Anything is possible with AIM stocks.I personally think that the company is way undervalued. Let us hope that the institutions think likewise should they decide to sell.

donkey derby 02 Nov 2015

Re: Investec cut price target to 28p Donatron - I have tried to open that note but without success. The presentation is very good and worth a read. There appears to be an implication from the discussion about a possible sustainable dividend that the opening of the Gangama in Q2 2016 mine could be a trigger.I do not think that of the analysts one was from Investec because they are now the Nomad.As an LSE subscriber you will know from Gibraltar's posts that he sees some forthcoming action from Pala. If he is right SRX could soon be in play and if the erstwhile chairman (also was a director of Pala) was right when he was paying 50pence plus for stock I think Investec could be proved wrong. After all Pala was prepared to pay 30 pence in 2011 since when the company has been transformed from a wet dredger (history of breaking down) to dry mining - Lanti and then next year Gangama.So how much will the institutions want?

Donatron 02 Nov 2015

"Sierra Rutile in Talks With Japan That Include Selling Stake" Thanks to daramuda over on the LSE message board for spotting this:[link] sure if there is any truth in it, but will be interesting to see what happens over the coming weeks.

Donatron 30 Oct 2015

Investec cut price target to 28p Investec's price target has been cut again (you may remember it was previously 38p, then 35p, then 32p):[link] still maintain their buy rating but annoying to see the target cut.What is interesting is that the cut was almost certainly a direct result of the analyst visit mentioned in the RNS on Monday. Would be great if someone had access to these reports, as I wonder what specifically they didn't like about the presentation?Talking of which, the new presentation can be found on the website here:[link] haven't had a proper chance to read through it yet, will need to compare it to the previous one. Has anyone else had a look?

mantrova 24 Oct 2015

Re: 13.8m trade, late Friday Hi dd - yes, Pala immediately sprang to mind and no doubt an RNS will soon appear from whoever.gl

donkey derby 23 Oct 2015

Re: 13.8m trade, late Friday A Pala purchase mantrova?Are we slowly being stitched up?Will we as ordinary mortals enjoy the true worth of Sierra Rutile?

mantrova 23 Oct 2015

13.8m trade, late Friday Quite a chunk changing hands a few minutes after the close, - obviously for some good reason.Exactly £2.7m by my calc.It's recorded as an Ordinary Trade.m

Donatron 19 Oct 2015

Couple more calcs Hi, I share these here in case anyone finds them interesting. Wanted to know the outcome of a couple of different scenarios:1) Production in 2015 is at the top end of the estimateHave always based my calculations on the bottom end of their estimates. That is just from past experience with other mining shares - expect the worst and possibly be surprised. I thought it would be useful to recalculate for the top figures in their estimates, to give a range of expected outcomes.Sales price: Interims said rutile price has been hovering around the $800 mark. Q3 says sales for rest of the year will be in line with 2014, which was $818.All-in cash costs are still expected to be about $650-670, but production is now expected to be better at 125k-130k (previously 120k-130k).Best case figures gives:$(800 - $650) x 130k = $19.5m profit = £12.6m profit (approx 1.55 FX rate)Divide that by the 522m shares and we're looking at about 2.4p EPS, which now puts us on a PE multiple of about 7.7x.Assume 50% divi of 1.2p and we'd have a current yield of 6.5% and using a 2% risk free rate, ought to be 60p.The above all assuming that the current share price is the mid price of 18.5p.2) 2016 production is in line with estimatesLooking at the most recent investor presentation, production for next year is slated to be about 150k tonnes (I think it's actually a bit more than that, but hard to tell from the graph on page 15). Likewise with costs, it's hard to tell but looks like it's about $590 per tonne. Again, I think it's actually a bit lower than that, but let's use that.Assume no increase in rutile price for next year and we have:$(800 - $590) x 150k = $31.5m profit = £20.3m profit (approx 1.55 FX rate)Divide that by the 522m shares and we're looking at about 3.9p EPS, which now puts us on a PE multiple of about 4.8x.Assume 50% divi of 1.9p and we'd have a potential yield of 10.3% and using a 2% risk free rate, ought to be 95p.Massive pinch of salt with the above, I'm not suggesting for a minute that those scenarios will actually happen. Just wanted to know what might happen if they did. In particular, I'm fairly sure they won't declare a 50% of earnings dividend.

Donatron 12 Oct 2015

Broker upgrade - Beaufort Securities Beaufort Securities has raised the share to a Speculative Buy:[link] view: Sierra delivered solid results in the third quarter of 2015 recording second highest quarter of rutile production ever. The ilmenite and zircon concentrate also witnessed a sharp improvement in production. The company benefited from the stable operating conditions last quarter and the maintenance shutdowns conducted during the first half of 2015. In addition, Sierra expects the full year rutile production to be in the middle to upper range of the previously announced levels of 120,000-130,000 tonnes. The company has already planned rutile sales for 2015 at prices similar to the average prices in 2014. Furthermore, the company is progressing well on the construction of Gangama Dry Mine and is on track to commence production in Q2 2016. Moreover, the project cost is well within set budget. Capitalizing on its quality assets and resources, we believe Sierra will benefit from the improving pigment and titanium metal markets. In view of the company’s bright prospects, we upgrade the rating to Speculative Buy.On the flip side, Investec have today cut their target price. This time it has fallen to 32p (was 38p a few months ago and most recently 35p). 32p is still a 70% increase from today.

Jitter 09 Oct 2015

Re: Ghost town Looks like a good buy long term. J.

Donatron 08 Oct 2015

Re: Ghost town Just updating my back of an envelope calcs for today's numbers:Sales price: Interims said rutile price has been hovering around the $800 mark. Q3 says sales for rest of the year will be in line with 2014, which was $818.All-in cash costs are still expected to be about $650-670, but production is now expected to be better at 125k-130k (previously 120k-130k).Worst case figures again gives:$(800 - $670) x 125k = $16.25m profit = £10.5m profit (approx 1.55 FX rate)Divide that by the 522m shares and we're looking at about 2.0p EPS, which now puts us on a PE multiple of about 9x.Assume 50% divi of 1.0p and we'd have a current yield of 5.6% and using a 2% risk free rate, ought to be 50p.Those are the worst case numbers remember.

Donatron 06 Oct 2015

All Hail President John Sisay Interesting that our CEO might be the next President of Sierra Leone. He has now formed his own political party called JBS Movement (yes, as in John Bonor Sisay). Not sure I need to see his movements though.Presumably he would have to step down as CEO if it came to that though. Bit more here:[link]

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