Re: Silence despite rise Still in here - although not as much as I would like to beWouldn't be surprised with a steady climb to over 50Flies under the radar. Good solid company - a rarity on AIM
Silence despite rise Have all investors sold out?Re rate or bid coming?80 pence again?Or more given the hardening of rutile sales prices and increased productivity?
What is bubbling The three large trades on Friday, followed by a great deal of trading activity, coupled with this morning's advance and then plenty of buys this afternoon indicate to me that something is afoot.Is there a bid in the wings? Anyone with ideas?
Note out this morning form Beaufort: "80% of Sierra Rutile’s revenues are from sales of natural rutile, an essential raw material in high quality pigments, and one of few commodities with a bright outlook. In recent years excess pigment inventory has been an issue but stocks are returning to normal levels, a predictor for higher feedstock prices like rutile. We expect rutile’s price to recover from 1Q17 and to be resilient for a prolonged period due to an approaching supply deficit - expected from end-2018. Sierra Rutile is the only company with virtually pure exposure to this niche and tightening market and in 2016 it will be the largest natural rutile producer in the world." on Research tree
rutile's price to recover "80% of Sierra Rutiles revenues are from sales of natural rutile, an essential rawmaterial in high quality pigments, and one of few commodities with a brightoutlook. In recent years excess pigment inventory has been an issue but stocksare returning to normal levels, a predictor for higher feedstock prices like rutile.We expect rutiles price to recover from 1Q17 and to be resilient for a prolongedperiod due to an approaching supply deficit - expected from end-2018. SierraRutile is the only company with virtually pure exposure to this niche andtightening market and in 2016 it will be the largest natural rutile producer in theworld." Beaufort note from this morning, on researchtree
Gangama Online Good news this morning. One thing that puzzled me is that it says in the RNS:"Steady-state operation is expected to be achieved within four months"So I don't know whether that means it will only be producing negligible amounts in the meantime. I'll try to find out. Elsewhere it also says "The Gangama Dry Mine is now operational and producing high quality natural rutile, a high grade titanium feedstock". Hopefully it's just poor wording in that case.If so then it's great news for two reasons:I only expected 6 months of production, now we'll have 7It's producing at 11% above capacityWhat does that mean? According to the November 2015 presentation, it will contribute 45-60k tonnes of rutile once up and running, so assume a worst case scenario and we'd be looking at 7/12 x 45k = 26kt in 2016. If they were able to operate 11% over capacity then perhaps that would be closer to 30k.This is all assuming we are up and running from 1 June, I'm not sure if that's actually the case. Even if we say that it operates at 50% efficiency for 4 months and then runs at full capacity for 3 months, we'd still be looking at nearly 20k this year assuming the 45k rate.All this production against the backdrop of what we are told to expect to be higher sales prices. It will be interesting to see what is in the Q2 and Q3 production figures therefore.
Commentators call the bottom in titanium Saw this article a couple of weeks ago, forgot to post at the time. Fingers crossed for increasing margins?[link]
Re: Iluka Market Commentary Thanks for posting, appreciated
Iluka Market Commentary Hi all (anyone?)Let me start this post by stating that I do not hold SRX nor am intending to purchase at this stage. I did hold quite a few years ago but if you want to dig back into my posts you will see that I sold out when it appeared the titanium market was heading down. The only sector related shares I hold are some Base Resources shares I bought (and should have sold!) on the ASX and have watched go down with the rest over the past few years. However I noticed that they have doubled (from their very very small price) over the past two days!There was no news from Base & so I had a trawl around and found this from Iluka[link] the Titanium market is finally heading for some price growth.I have no idea what has happened & is happening with SRX specifically but perhaps there are positive implications for any holders here?Good luck & best wishes
Re: Be brave and with rutile sale prices likely to rise during 2016 the margins will improve.Greater production with Gangama coming on stream this quarter, costs of production reducing further in 2016 and higher forthcoming sales' prices profitably will improve.A very under valued stock.
Be brave Full article in shares mag says could double in yearBe brave and invest in Sierra Rutile (SRX:AIM) in the hope that rutile price weakness is past its worst and that the companys financial position is about to experience significant improvement. Stockbroker Numis reckons the miners share price will more than double as expansion plans are executed over the coming year. That should result in higher production levels and lower costs from the Sierra Leone-based natural resources group. etc
Re: SRX and Pala Clearly today the Rutile fiends are out looking for the the good stuff....FLU.
Re: SRX and Pala Thanks for that D.Derby, when written it was a further 3% down, so my view was coloured by that.Let's hope our Rutile quality will be attractive to a predator!FoolsLikeUs.
Re: SRX and Pala FLU - in my view the company has never been in a stronger position. What is missing is profitability. The basic asset i.e. rutile is plentiful; decades worth to mine.The means of mining have improved greatly since 2011 with Gangama about to come on stream. Costs of production have reduced year by year and will reduce further with Gangama coming on stream. As Gibraltar1 has mentioned on LSE, 90% of this year's sales are contracted for but as he points out, the sales' prices are probably at last year's prices for otherwise Sisay would have stated that prices have increased with some or all of those contracts.Therefore if,as anticipated, in H2 rutile sales prices do firm, profits will only benefit with any other sales so far not contracted. Having said that if one studies the prospective further reduction in costs, the current margin of $9.4 loss could be largely eradicated this year by a turnaround in margins per tonne sold with lower costs per tonne. In my opinion we start 2016 (albeit a quarter gone) at a probable breakeven point.This company should therefore go into profit in 2017 should rutile sales prices increase in H2 so that contracted prices for 2017 contracts are higher.In the meantime part of the loss is also due to the funding of Gangama; 60$ of the costs are born by the company out of cash flow with the other 40% funded by loans. $24 million out of the $44m cost of Gangama has so far been spent to year end 2015.From the RNS concerning the future planned mine infrastructure of a week or so ago, it seems to me there is no immediate requirement or intention to construct that (5 years was mentioned for future production), I can see a cheeky offer being made for SRX. But what is Pala's position? They are turnaround specialists, They have almost completed their logistical input. The company has infrastructure in place which was only a dream 5 years ago. My calculation of the amount per share paid by Pala over the last 5 years is somewhere between 15 and 18 pence. Someone with a great deal of mining experience when asked by me suggested that Pala would start with recovering two times their investment. I would suggest a premium on top would be a bonus. If correct that would mean 30 to 36 pence per share plus "the bonus"; say a start point of 40 to 50 pence per share might be an offer price in current markets. Say £200-£250 million for the company with 512 million shares issued plus an amount for the exercise and satisfaction of options.For that price a successful purchaser would acquire a company with vast rutile deposits, a readily built modern infrastructure, a good well organised work force and focused debt which is not large.A hypothetical offeror would of course bear in mind that large parts of Sierra Leone (but not SRX directly) was affected by the Ebola outbreak and there has been historical civil unrest, some serious. Ebola however is under control and the country is at peace.Finally whilst the sale price of rutile production may have been higher in 2011 do not forget that Pala offered 30 pence a share for 100% of the company which was rejected by the board.
First the good, Numis target up to 40p Company hits production targetsAnd now,...loss wider! One must presume that has to do with Feasability studies & prepfor the dry mine - not too bad if the case.Sierra is proving to be a " nearly" share it is always about to fulfil its promise, hope that with producing from the new mine in the future will mean we shareholders actually get a return onthe capital lent to the company. Not good seeing it eroded.Best to all,FLU.