Barry Passu
13 Sep 2016
Re: New Order Owenski over on ADVFN reckons $160,000 or less.
Hardboy
12 Sep 2016
New Order Always good to hear about new orders especially in different parts of the world. I suspect (reinforced by the market reaction) that this is not worth a huge amount; but as market penetration it must be a good thing.Does anyone have any idea what the approximate value of "400 AIS Identifier VMS Transceiver kits" would be?
Cliff Peat
15 Aug 2016
Re: Research HardboyI think you will find that Blackrock sold sometime ago (and before "Indonesia"
following a change of investment manager.The Notifiable shareholders per website today are:Mr and Mrs R Persey 14,112,252 11.06%; S Rogers 13,508,900 10.60%; J Horne 8,953,900 7.00%; TD Direct Investing Nominees (Europe) Limited 7,419,010 5.80%; Barclayshare Nominees Limited 7,136,214 5.60%; Hargreaves Lansdown 6,493,237 5.10%; Mr & Mrs IM Laing 5,000,000 3.90%; Lynchwood Nominees Limited 3,860,407 3.00% TOTAL = 52.06%I think this may be out of date as it does not include 3% of La Valmy Trust recently notified.I suspect that the HL, TD and Barclays holdings comprise mainly individual and SIPP/ISA accounts.A takeover approach would have to be acceptable to a lot of long term holders.It may be that the recent share option grants have to been set at a level that will particularly benefit the executive team at £1.25 a share or more.Though still a "minnow" it seems to me that smaller investment funds might judge there to be potential for a 200+% profit within 3 years - and at the moment they might be able to mop up 15% of the company for £10mIt is good to read these informative posts of the last few days.
Hardboy
14 Aug 2016
Re: Research As you say on historic figures this share is overpriced, i.e., as you say "there is a fair amount of hope value built into the share price." I would change one word and say there is a fair amount of belief in the share price. Black Rock have a reasonable holding in this, otherwise, it is private investors driving the share price. Many of these may be AIM traders looking for quick gains, so they jump in when they see a price rising and place very tight stop losses, so as soon as the rise stops, some leap out, stop losses are triggered and the share price continues to fall. Most of the movement in the last 6 weeks I believe has been driven by traders, not serious investors who understand the business. The start of the latest rise was at the time of the AGM when a couple of new contracts were announced. I doubt anyone who was at the AGM will have sold in the recent drop. I would be surprised if whoever wrote the IC article was at the AGM or has interviewed anyone associated with the business. So can you take their recommendation seriously? A lot of PIs do and did and hence further fall since the IC came out. The real movements in share price will be driven by REAL news - not hope or tea-leaf readers or people reading the IC or other commentator. Over the next three years the average annual income for the business will be at least 3 times what the previous best year was - almost from just one contract. The increase in sales will not significantly increases their costs. They do have a real pipeline worth far more than this. Somehow, until the figures come out the markets don't really believe this. And before you belittle the director buy of a further 10,000 shares at 48p remember the guy is only on £12k. As for a take-over I think it unlikely unless it was for a massive premium. Look who the main shareholders are - people who now the business, and believe in it, and most have been holders a long time. I doubt they will sell it cheaply. In this case I do believe patience will be a virtue.
lew mannheim
14 Aug 2016
Research Volume certainly picked up this week and indeed the IC came out with a 'take profits' recommendation. The last buy recommendation was at 43p so the price fall this week has eliminated most of that upside.The company needs to attract extra coverage and is now potentially of a size to do so. One valid point the IC makes is that there is a fair amount of hope value built into the share price even after the fall and, somewhat perversely, whilst it is generally good news to see director buying, the recent purchase of 10,000 shares at 48p by one director to add to a substantial holding already might be seen as a signal that there is no obvious new contract news in the pipeline and thus a minor negative.My feeling is that the shares may drift a bit further and retrace a third of the rise, implying a price of around 40p, but I would look to add again at that level. This company does have a very interesting global profile and, of course, would now be substantially cheaper post referendum for a non-UK acquirer.I have been a shareholder since 2011 and have seen several false dawns. GIven the notional business pipeline, however, my fear is that SRT will be taken over by a large company for the corporate equivalent of petty cash before long established shareholders reap the full benefit of the efforts that management have made over a number of years.
Ewan Hoosami
14 Aug 2016
Tipsters Signed up to Penny Share Letter the other day to see what Sean Keyes has to say. PSL (circulation 6000) says buy at 49p, IC (circulation 30000) says sell but I haven't seen the article. But since they tipped it as a buy at 39p they surely can't think it overpriced at 47p can they?PSL has a target of 109p and if you have £37 to spare you may think it worth a read. Although Keyes doesn't mention it, this looks like one of those world-leading UK companies most people don't hear about until they get taken over. Although the AIS system isn't proprietary technology, the company is so far ahead of the game and with a huge pipeline of opportunities that a bid looks likely at some point imo. Why bother to compete when you can buy the company while it's still under most people's radar (so to speak). Very happy to be holding shares bought at 39p average.
Hardboy
10 Aug 2016
NED Buying Usually a director buying shares is a good sign; and in the long run this is; but in the shorter term it may mean there are not going to be any significant news releases in the near future.
stillere
09 Aug 2016
Re: Volatility baa.the weathers good, the grass is green, i think we can safely graze for a while.
Clitheroekid
08 Aug 2016
Re: Volatility I think I can now answer my own question. Apparently, SRT were tipped in a widely read penny share tipsheet, so the sheep duly marched in this morning with their cash and were all duly fleeced. So in the space of a few hours we have ended up with a flock of shorn, shivering sheep and a lot of traders with nice, warm sheepskin coats!
coldascheese
08 Aug 2016
Simon thompson says SELL IC Simon Thompson says price risen to high Sell-have sold mine befor this weeks issue comes out.
Clitheroekid
08 Aug 2016
Re: Volatility My earlier point has been vividly - though unpleasantly - reinforced by the fact that the 14% rise has now completely vanished, and at the time of writing we're back to the opening price again.It has all the appearance of a `pump and dump', but the individual trades look too small, unless they're co-ordinated in some way. I just wish I had some idea of what's really going on here. It's very disconcerting to be witnessing such massive short-term moves in one of my largest investments.
Clitheroekid
08 Aug 2016
Volatility SRT is proving very bad for my blood pressure! Can anyone explain why they're up around 14% on volumes of around £635k, representing less than £400k in cash terms? Looking at the trades they all seem to be small ones, with the largest only around £15k, so it's difficult to see why the price should have moved so much.
Hardboy
05 Aug 2016
Re: Future share price Good work Magnolia.More detailed calcs than mine, but a similar conclusion. As for today's drop - bound to be some profit taking after such a strong rise, and with it mainly being Private Investors driving this market, a lot of momentum traders will have hopped on the bandwagon with very tight stop losses, so once the sp reverses, there will be further selling. I think there may also be a little bit of our old friend impatience. At the AGM they gave the impression that the next major bit of news flow was very imminent, and a month later there hasn't been a dickie bird, so some people may be getting impatient and decided to bank the profits and stop waiting.
magnolia100
05 Aug 2016
Re: Future share price should say £10m for ongoing equipment sales!
magnolia100
05 Aug 2016
Re: Future share price I too have done some rough calculations to see how price might rise over next three years - just back of the envelope stuff. I have assumed a gross margin of 48% as now, not sure if it would be higher or lower on projects. I've kept same operating and finance costs, though I guess they may rise a bit, and also assumed no more tax credits, tho hopefully we have some left, and assumed same level of ongoing equipment sales (£10k).Minimum case, £70m project revenue (I've assumed £5m first year, £25m second year, £40m third year)Middle case, £105m project revenue (weighted as above)High case, £140m project revenue (weighted as above)Year 1, I've assume P/E of 50, Year 2 P/E 20, Year 3 P/E 15This gives the following share prices based on current number of shares (diluted):Minimum: 88, 183, 220Middle: 134, 275, 330High: 180, 367, 440I will redo the spreadsheet if anyone has any better suggestions.Hanging on tight to my shares!!! I can't time my trades well enough to make trading the highs and lows sensible given a 5% spread.
