sasa43
11 May 2018
Re: Price fall Hi casa - 'fortune favours and all that' - so good luck - sasa.
casabanker
11 May 2018
Re: Price fall Hello sasa and all,The sp has just had a significant bounce which looks like a number of stop losses have been triggered and people have been rushing to get back in. I have put my money where my mouth is and averaged down at around 61.5p including dealing costs. Is this brave or foolish?The news issued is not a profit warning and with a little bit of fortune, it will be a storm in a tea cup. Casa.
eagle51
11 May 2018
Re: Price fall Crikey - Serica's diarrhoea has turned into dysentery.Beats me why BP wouldn't want to sell Rhum even more now. Maybe I just don't understand and the secondary sanctions threat is just too frightening for anyone to ignore. Difficult to see,however, why the UK Gov would just sit back and let Trump f*** with the OGA's much vaunted MER strategy with his "shoot from the hip" America first ('Donald first' more like) strategy, but the spineless characteristics of Government officialdom never ceases to amaze.The silence from Serica is deafening. I'm seriously concerned about the commercial nous of these people, having previously been a big fan of TCW. You can't flag something up as a problem, give no reassurance the problem/s can be resolved or even a broad timescale in which more information is going to be provided - and expect anything other than what has happened. The SP has fallen 40% in 3 days and shows no signs of stopping.Appalling management of news.I'm prepared to be wrong and eat humble pie. Step forward with the news - BP's bought out INOC's 50% and all's well in the garden. Re the last paragraph, I'm off my medications today. Just coming, nurse......................imo/dyor
sasa43
11 May 2018
Re: Price fall Good post, casa - keeping things in perspective is what's required at present.We all know that the mkt hates such uncertainty and, invariably, takes a very jaundiced view of things until they're clarified. SQZ must be urgently seeking this, after their RNS on it and the near precipitous fall in the sp subsequently.As has been reiterated by others, we're no 'basket case' here; we don't have any debts with ample cash in the bank, good management / connections, an existing income producing asset (when Erskine's back up and running later on) the Rowallan 'spud' coming up soon, along with Columbus shaping up next year and various exploration licences held, etc.,The present sp level suggests that the BP deal is now 'dead in the water' - well, if it is or it needs to be re-negotiated (it's not signed off yet - would be worse, if it was) then there's TCW and his team to make the best of that outcome with BP.If it's confirmed that it's all on, as before, however, then the sp could double from here, given all the other 'goodies' we have upcoming, whilst the prices of oil & gas are running much higher now than when the deal was first announced.Ergo, 'when in doubt, do nowt' seems as good a shout as any right now - that's my take, anyway, fwiw....sasa.
casabanker
11 May 2018
Price fall Well hasn't this week been exciting? My average buying in price is about 80p so exciting for the wrong reason. If I didn't think SQZ had something to offer, I wouldn't have bought it in the first place. Am I selling? No, as I think this fall in price is well overdone. Will I buy more? More than likely. The sp will have to demonstrate that it has bottomed out before I make that decision. I am not going to be around for a couple of weeks and, who knows it may have recovered by then anyway. AIM shares are prone to setbacks like this but you have to remind yourself why you are invested here. Is SQZ a lame duck with no hope of a decent future, consumed by debt with a dodgy management team? Does it have other strings to its bow? Will you buy more shares if the sp bottoms out at 45p?I am not giving up yet. I don't want to crystalise my losses but there is a time, on occasions that a painful decision like that is necessary. This is not the time.Casa.
NewKOTB
11 May 2018
Re: The Iranian clampdown could also aff... [link] is a must read imo.Thanks for posting changeling.Shooting from the hip are the Americans .... plan B (LOL) The US Gov received a tweet from Macron, so all is ok (lol)Cuba MK11 would be ideal imo.
Ripley94
11 May 2018
invested it all back. @ 55p....
up protherics
11 May 2018
Re: Fran This large fall could have been avoided inmo..What a stupid RNS.. It is basically saying that they hadn't worked on a possible solution prior to trump..Had they said in the RNS that they had a number of options should santions be reinstated then the market would be taking a different view than present.If anything the OGA may not grant them a license due to the fact that they may be not upto running the field. That is now where my biggest concern isHaving said that what ever happens we have Erskine and with higher oil prices it should help support the price. Who know we even get a decent discovery at Rowallen
Franconia
11 May 2018
Re: Fran That transcript (or as far as I got with it!) seems to indicate uncertainty mixed with indecision and opaqueness! If the deal in its current form becomes detrimental to SQZ, we can (I assume....) pull out or re-negotiate, but that is a potentially months more of uncertainty unless work is already advanced on various options...In many ways, this is more BP's problem than ours but our size means we are being hammered. As you say, my previously healthy pf has taken a battering but I may yet take the brave pills and increase..... 
changeling
11 May 2018
Fran If SQZ had nothing else or a pile of debt then it would worry me more. If the BKR deal were to fall through then it's always going to overreact to the downside but the recovery potential once Erskine comes back online is clear.The company is not a basket case (like another we knew) even if there is no deal. but your PF may be feeling a bit of pain in the meantime. Few of us get the timing bang on hence why I scale in but SQZ owes me nothing.Like you I would be surprised if TCW hadn't had a weather eye on all of this. Maybe it's part of the reason for the long lead completion. They were very aware of the potential for exactly this to happen.I wonder what the reaction would be if the deal had just completed?
changeling
11 May 2018
Re: The Iranian clampdown could also aff... [link] is an interesting read!
Franconia
11 May 2018
Re: The Iranian clampdown could also aff... Agreed, the RNS was a disaster given that this was hardly "out of the blue". I am confident that there IS a Plan B as TCW is a wiley veteran with great connections. It would be nice to know what the plan is though! I guess they cant say anything until it is agreed...Certainly looks like the market is capitulating on the probability of the deal completing.Very tempted to keep on buying but admit to a lack of courage (or madness?) after buying more yesterday!
Xivan
11 May 2018
President background briefing... Messy at least Interesting read on twitter on the briefing and what it means. Seems like a big mess and significant uncertainty on what will or will not happen... Really crazy how little strategy and thinking their seems to be on the decision taken. CRAZY world![link] unfortunate evolution. Been holding/accumulating in this share over 5 years. Have been reducing my weight the last days in this since too much uncertainty, but still got a big portion of my pf in here. I really like the management and hope they have been thinking about a plan B. I remember telling to myself to reduce my holding when it was 90+... Didn't see this coming, but should have .... Ah well.. hindsight...
changeling
11 May 2018
Re: The Iranian clampdown could also aff... I have been in the past and at this rate will be again. I keep an eye on it out of interest and I still like it - just don't like AIM in generalI just find it hard to believe that they would have entered the deal ignoring the possibility of exactly this scenario. It read to me back along as if they had a plan B so I was a bit mystified by the sheer sparseness of that RNS. In fact I will probably start scaling in Currently the sp seems to be heading towards writing off the deal
Franconia
11 May 2018
Re: The Iranian clampdown could also aff... You a holder here Changeling? Thought you have given up on AIM?
