up protherics
06 Jun 2018
U.S Meeting We are now on the third week since the last update where SQZ said they were due to have meetings with the U.S treasury department during the next few weeks.Hopefully this is occurring now and we will get some sort of update. Personally I am hoping that the u.s will give guidance as to how we can get this licence. Which should hopefully bring the share price back to the 80 level and beyond.
up protherics
05 Jun 2018
sanctions This is not meant to come across as callous and insensitive to the appalling situation the Iranian people are now in..If the nuclear deal does fall apart inmo Serica would be in a much simple position.When full sanctions were applied the IOC share went into an Escrow account. The way I see things is that to keep the deal alive IOC would still want payment from production.. Currently as things stand I cannot see the u.s issuing a license unless of course the government intervenes in some way..
up protherics
01 Jun 2018
Re: Rhum Field Thanks for that eagle.. I guess it is now looking more and more a political issue if this gets sorted.lets hope the u.k diplomacy skills are better than the u.s.. I just hope rump hasn't replaced all the u.s diplomats to mirror himself.. No wonder he feels more close to that thing in n korea.. they seem well suited.only mho so dy
eagle51
01 Jun 2018
Re: Rhum Field sorry - forgot:[link]
eagle51
01 Jun 2018
Re: Rhum Field u/p & sasaAs I read the situation a sale of its 50% interest in Rhum by IOC to a non-US buyer before the US sanctions came into effect would remove all the obstacles. The reality, however, is that even if the IOC was minded to sell, it would be all but impossible to agree and complete in the time available. In any event the acquisition of IOC's 50% interest would be too big for Serica to contemplate on its own. BP could easily afford to take on the whole field but it would change all the BKR numbers and BP would in all probability not want to risk alienating the US by so obviously seeking to circumvent the upcoming sanctions.Whatever happens is going to have to happen with the goodwill of all parties and countries involved in the conundrum. That's as I see it anyway.I agree with all your other views and observations includingSQZ's future prospects and the underlying value in SQZ's shares. Markets don't behave rationally however, so my guess is that SQZ's share price will continue to be punished until there is some big news that people can clearly see significantly adds value to whatever is currently factored into the price. This imv includes the increasingly discounted probability of the BKR deal completing as planned. wdik? We're all in the dark, which is not a happy place to be in despite the shares performing so well - until Trump started causing trouble. If this was 'Homeland' he'd have been sorted out by now 
I remain optimistic - someone has to.................all imo/dyor
sasa43
01 Jun 2018
Re: Rhum Field Hi up - well, you might be better informed on that aspect than me but we'll know what's what soon enough, I guess - sasa.
up protherics
01 Jun 2018
Re: Rhum Field sasaAre you sure the IOC share is still held in an escrow account. My understanding is that funds were released after sanctions were lifted 2015/16.I am hoping that this can be activated again to appease the rump administration.Failing that maybe the U.K government could underwrite any work that would need to be carried out by u.s personal should it be required. i.e the payment of any fines against companies carrying out work if needed.After all don't forget that this field produces probably 200 million or more in tax reven
sasa43
01 Jun 2018
Re: Rhum Field It is a conundrum, up protherics, I quite agree.Trouble is there's little incentive to persuade the IOC to relinquish their 50% interest in the field or sell it, since how would they get paid for it, given the embargo on currency transfers to them as things stand?From Serica's point of view, they need the operator's licence from the UK authorities to manage the development of Rhum3 and that requires showing responsible regard for H & S regs which invariably involves access to the best support / maintenance equipment should anything untoward happen during their tenure and most of that stuff is American.With IOC's income from the field still held 'in escrow,' I'd hope that that being maintained would enable SQZ to proceed, as planned but with politics, especially Trump's version, it's anyone's guess.Whilst the BKR deal remains 'in limbo' oppressing the sp, we do have Serica's other prospects getting closer (Erskine resuming production soon via the bypass pipeline / the Rowallan 'spud' coming up / Columbus development, plus Lomond) with the latest exploration licence awards looking interesting, too.At 64p today, much of the above seems disregarded to me and assumes a negative outcome. Such binary bets rarely have other considerations to fall back on - if the outcome is positive, expect a sharp move back to the previous 'high' and beyond, I'd say - sasa.
up protherics
01 Jun 2018
Rhum Field Something which hasn,t been discussed much is the IOC interests in Rhum.The situation now is quite different.. World sanctions have not been applied to Iran. Only the U.S has adopted this.So maybe the IOC may look to offload the field to make life easier. Just maybe Serica could end up with the lot.. Who knows all parties hands could now be forced to complete this within three months or so.Also maybe there could be some clause that if U.S sanctions are lifted IOC could buy back into the field at a future date at a set price.INMO what is quite different is that the field is in the North Sea and not Iran so surely there is some room for manouv
up protherics
31 May 2018
Re: BKR I recently contacted the company re a couple issues I wanted clarification on.. One they could not answer due to stock exchange rules, but one they did re government intervention.The government is lobying hard both in the u.k and Washington.So my assumption is that this will become political.Personally I think the u.s has benefited greatly from B.P and british nationals. 100 billion in terms of hard cash from the deepwater fiasco to start with.. If I remember rightly wasn't a U.S company involved with maintence behind this disaster before it happened. I would now be more concerned if any u.s company ends up being involved.Also as I mentioned earlier.. surely serica should look at employing anyone with Israely status.That seems to be the bacik door entry. We all know football is the kingpin in all of this Don't we ????????.. on they head my son go on
eagle51
31 May 2018
Re: BKR Johnny lite - I can see where you're coming from but my understanding is that most if not all of the wellhead equipment at Rhum is US sourced and is reliant on US nationals for maintenance and repair. Even if SQZ was willing to risk going ahead with the deal (which I imagine is for all three interests or none) standards couldn't be met from a health & safety perspective.Rhum will be minuscule to NIOC but my guess is Iran likes owning a NS asset and wouldn't be interested in selling, even if a deal could be completed before the US sanctions come into force.People at a high level will be working all out behind the scenes to see that SQZ gets a fair outcome. Trump's actions are in direct conflict with the UK Government's MER strategy as applied by the OGA. We have recently seen that this has teeth via the award of a disproportionately high number of licences in the 30th Licensing Round to small and medium sized oil companies, rather than mostly to the majors. I guess the theory (and practice) is that the minnows will be keener to progress the smaller numbers and the latter will be more likely given the majors will have to farm into the licences on agreed terms if they want to participate in the right timescale. wdik?I am hoping SQZ will quietly be granted or unconditionally promised a licence that will allow the BKR deal to complete, but I am more hopeful than certain this will happen. Regardless, SQZ's future looks safe enough, assuming Erskine is brought back into play in a finite timescale and other prospects are progressed as planned. It would nevertheless be a bitter disappointment if the BKR deal was indefinitely postponed or cancelled and would impact very unfavourably on the SP. 3 steps forward, 3 steps back kindathing.We're in risk territory at current SP levels as I see things but I have retained the larger part of my holding in anticipation of a solution being found to the Trump/Iran problem. I wish I had a higher opinion of public sector officialdom, whose actions here we're reliant on. imo/dyor
Johnny lite
31 May 2018
Re: BKR For what it's worth, I think the BKR will go ahead, but it will look slightly different than the previous announcement. BP will want to be shot of the assets to remove the headache of sanctions - a powerful incentive to get the deal done. And Serica will not be directly affected by the sanctions so may be willing to take on the risk. The access to US companies is the fly in the ointment of course. No idea how that will play out - but licenses will be much harder to come by in the Trump era.I doubt the government will get involved though. I don't think they have enough strings to pull to get this through either.One other option I thought about. Why doesn't Serica buy out the Iranian 50% at the same time as the BKR deal? If they can clear that before the final deadline then they could end up with even more assets. How would they fund it? A combination of debt, share issue, and more support from BP should do the trick. Announcing that they were in discussions to do this would see the share price rise, then a placing at maybe 80p to raise a part of the money would be very feasible. This would be a win for IOC too as they could realise the value in this asset before any sanctions stop them. Just a thought..Personally, I have traded these a bit over the last month or two. Last batch sold at 70p odd. But a lot of risk currently, which is stopping me buying more, but will do so if the share dips any further as the risk reward balance changes.JL
up protherics
31 May 2018
We are al safe Apparently Israel is now handing out citizenship to anyone with money who cannot quite back into London...Good angle for SQZ. All employees should apply for Israelie citizenship then they will be allowed to carry on business anywhere in the worldDid we really fight a war against the Nazis. and dictatorships Gad bless a....ica Oh dear.. INMHO The free world is rapidly coming to endDYOR... Time to bail out and start a new monetary system .. I might call it trumptonnight coin.In all seriousness though it does prove there is always an angle... I must dig my cap and silver candlesticks out later just in ca
up protherics
30 May 2018
The next couple of weeks Serica mentioned meetings were going to take place during the next few weeks. That was last week . So my assumption is that these should start next week or the following week. Does anyone know if representatives from the government will be attending..
up protherics
30 May 2018
Re: BKR There has been numerous posts regarding the BKR deal.. Take a look at ADVFN bulletin board.. One major point here is that all this was known about when the perspective was issued back in November.At the end of the day SQZ does not require authorisation from the U.S for this deal to materialise. In other words it is not a deal breaker. It would however make life a lot simpler to have this licence so Serica can call on U.S expertise if it is required.Five percent of U.K gas comes from this field so its in the interests of the U.K for this field to maintain production.. You,ll probably find that the government has powers to keep this field open. What may happen is that a license will be underwritten by the U.K government.
