II Editor
27 Apr 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Buying opportunity as sterling whacks Sprue Aegis? "LSE:SPRP:Sprue Aegis, one of Europe's largest suppliers of alarms and safety products, is going to smash sales expectations in 2015 thanks to a heavy French order book and favourable legislation. But news that the weaker euro will bring profits ..."[link]
old brown owl
22 Apr 2015
Results any day now Results due end of April. Could we see a significant rise in profit and hopefully the dividend.
SirF
06 Mar 2015
Tro// Just in case anyone hasn't sussed it yet....'arold' ( 500 yds. ) ........ is an internet tro//.
zulu principle2
24 Dec 2014
increased my holding Increased my holding in Sprue Aegis at £3.20What I look for when buying a share4 years of continual growth which can be a combination of historic and forecast growth – YesLow Forecast PER (<16) & PEG (<0.7) and good EPS Growth (>15%) – No in 2014 but Yes in 2016Based on a price of £3.15 on 23rd Dec-142014 EPS Forecast 16.80p EPS Growth 50.0% PER 18.8 PEG 0.38 2015 EPS Forecast 20.00p EPS Growth 19.0% PER 15.8 PEG 0.83 The EPS Forecasts I have were issued in September and since then the company came out with a trading statement saying they would be ahead of expectations. This will improve the figures aboveBelow are based on 2013 ResultsPositive 1 Year Relative Strength - YesPositive 1 Month Relative Strength – N/AROCE of 20% - Yes 40.7%Profit Margin of over 7.5% - Yes 10.9%Cashflow Per Share greater than EPS around 1.3 - No 0.37Low Gearing – Yes -35.9% Director Share holding >10% - Yes 15.8%Quick ratio of > 1.0 but preferably >1.5 – Yes 1.44Dividend Yield (a nice to have) forecast – YesI bought more after hearing that less than 5% of homes in France have smoke detectors. The article is from March 2014 so the figure will now be higher now but I still think there is a good opportunity for Sprue Aegis.[link] another article from Sept 14 that say its only 2%[link] what I look for when buying a stock at[link] follow me on Twitter@GrowthStocksUK
claude reins
19 Dec 2014
Hargreaves Hale up share Giles Hargreaves spoke at a Mello conference recently in Derby. A few of his team were there too, watching and listening. He had quite a few tips in his talk.....but SPRP were there too, presenting. Attended myself and Im sure his team did. Very strong presentation. Could be that they were as turned on as I was. Maybe like me they were annoyed they hadnt bought in moreearlier, sooner after the IPO.
claude reins
28 Nov 2014
Looking through my notes from Mello 14 Looking back in more detail, I was particularly impressed by the potential growth in France as a result of legal requirements. They also made strong noises about R&D investment and the results achieved in reducing the size of products through successfully reducing the size of the components - Im sure there is a word for this which begins with 'micro'! With their economies of scale and product development protection programme, they are a hard act to follow.I was surprised to hear how many of their products are sealed units with a life of around 10 years.....and many of their previous sales are coming up for replacement. (My personal experience of alarms in my own home with a different type of product - not from this company! - is frequent, fiddly and costly replacement of batteries.)Last but not least, I thought they were probably the most impressive management team on show at Mello; down to earth, professional, long standing team with clearly defined objectives and plans to achieve them on a continuing and improving basis.
claude reins
28 Nov 2014
Re: Potential Risks The macro-economic points you make are always there, and will always influence the market to a greater or lesser extent. This year, we have had positives on the oil price - unless you produce oil; negatives on Euroland; soft Chinese market etc etc. I'm sure others can think of many more, including the ever present dreadful wars and medical issues like Ebola somewhere or other. We all have to take a view on the effect on the market, what is already built in, but also the effect on individual shares. XAAR crash after the Chinese soft market kicked in is a good example. Its always a case of DYOR.If you are a pessimist, then take the action you are considering and good luck. I may or may not do the same! In the case of this share, I think it has the positives to keep on building, but of course the SP has risen sharply this year and some holders may be tempted to take profit. If they do this to invest elsewhere to get better results, I think they will be hard pressed. If they do it to take profit, that's understandable. Nothing is worth anything until we sell it.
five hundred yds ahead
27 Nov 2014
Re: Potential Risks ClaudeThank you for your excellent perspective, and you have more or less convinced me that this is a share to be added to ones portfolio. The critical question is when?One of the things putting me off adding further shares to my portfolio at the moment and even to the extent I'm seriously thinking of substantially reducing my equity portfolio exposure, is the political uncertainty we face up to and after the general election. We appear to be increasingly faced with bizarre coalition government options after the general election which will scare the living daylights out of businesses and investors. This will surely impact on SPRP as well as other companies and the most likely result I suggest is a drop in its share price, perhaps of double percentage digit proportions?Even if one takes the view that after several years or so things will settle down and SPRP's sp will recover handsomely, would you not agree there is a strong argument for waiting so as to pick up at a lower price in the light of political uncertainty? Even if one is currently holding like yourself one has the tantalising option of selling and buying back in later at a reduced share price? Is that not an option you would consider?imho etcBest wishesHarol
claude reins
26 Nov 2014
Re: Potential Risks I was at the Mello event in Derby recently, attended a company presentation and had a long discussion with the senior management on a 1-to-1 basis. I think you should not worry unduly about the competition, any more than any other company. They have survived a bid in the past from the very big US company for whom they do distribution in Europe. They have a good continuing relationship with them. Their big business is not in the supermarkets like B&Q - although they have a very strong presence in retail. Their big business is with the companies which own property and they take very god care of them. Hence the very exciting opportunity in France where the law now requires landlords not tenants to install their equipment.I am only sorry that I did not follow one of my friends in at an earlier stage after the IPO. They are one of the more impressive companies I have seen recently.A very strong hold, or even a buy IMHO. Long term holding that will repay you handsomely.As for risk of product failure, as an investor if you worried about that, you wouldn't sleep at nights. There are many more stronger candidates for your worry list!
five hundred yds ahead
25 Nov 2014
Potential Risks I have just been prompted to take another look at this company - I did so not long ago and did not invest , so I'm taking another look and would seek your opinion.I'm still concerned about the competition, there are so many other companies, dozens in fact making similar products, so it seemed to me there was a high risk factor if one of those other companies snatched Sprue Aegis main customers. Does that risk not still exist?There was another random thought I had at the time I first looked at this company, which was unpleasant the notion that if one of the detectors malfunctioned, and there is always no matter how good the quality control some percentage which can fail, leading perhaps to a fatality, the bad publicity could undermine the company on the basis that insurance companies, for example on new house builds , would insist on another company's products being installed? Let's hope that risk is insignificant.So whereas the company is doing well, and I should have bought it as an investor in the past, looking at it again now those risk factors I identified still appear to hang like a sword of Damocles over its future do they not?. The question is what is the reward:risk ratio , do you have a suggested figure for its sp in a couple of years time?imho etcBest WishesHarol
