moneyman59
30 Dec 2018
TE10 Monday Thanks for that PS. If TE10 is good and the basin model is back on track, I couldn’t understand the panic on LSE and the ‘happy with £1’ brigade. In your best case model, surely only a fraction of 31 Tcf is going to be proven, the rest based on seismics @ ?p per Tcf. On the other hand, if we drill TE11 into Paleozoic and that shows potential to dwarf Tagi, (31Tcf best case didn’t include Paleo did it?), surely JP’s ‘four figures’ could be realistic? Hence my attempt to look at it from the other end of the telescope and wonder on the basis of previous on-shore buyouts, how much upside would Shell, for example need to be confident of achieving, to pay £10bn for Sound? Hopefully we’ll have an answer in next 6 months or so!! ATB MM59
ps200306
30 Dec 2018
TE10 Monday I doubt you can validly extrapolate from the UK retail price. The number that has been bandied around for the prospective gas sales agreement on the existing Tendrara find is c. $8/mcf (around £6bn per Tcf). But that is presumably for the limited discovery so far. Multi-Tcf volumes would result in pipeline exports for which the wellhead price would be a lot lower. Also, your 15 Tcf is at the top end of the estimate of recoverable gas in Tendrara. The easiest rule of thumb to use is the one that Sound themselves have done – it takes into account the value of the gas, the cost of development, and the cost of funds over a multi-year development period, plus the number of Sound shares in issue. They say that a Tcf is worth £1.50 on the Sound share price. If you want to let your imagination run wild, ignoring that the value per Tcf of a large find is probably lower, and taking the high-case estimate of the Tendrara potential … then you’re look at 31 Tcf x 50% recovery rate x 47% owned by Sound x £1.50 = £11 per share. But I’d say after the TE-9 panic that gripped private investors over on LSE, I’d say many of them would bite yer arm off for a tenth of that.
moneyman59
30 Dec 2018
TE10 Monday Eagerly awaiting news on TE10. I read somewhere that the UK consumes about 3 Tcf gas per year and these retail sales add up to £15bn (£5bn per Tcf). Assuming a buyer thought they could extract 15-20 Tcf from Tendrara they stand to make £75-100bn minus extraction costs, if above is correct. Is there a ‘rule of thumb’ from previous buyouts in the gas industry of what percentage of potential value, let’s say £100bn, is a decent purchase price for such an asset? You can see where I’m going with this. MM59
Ripley94
28 Dec 2018
Bad news tomorrow? SOU… XXXX 27% up today on 10 Dec they fell to 11p now @ 22p they have doubled in 18 days .
moneyman59
28 Dec 2018
TE10 Monday Possibly most useful post on LSE yesterday from Exploration . Porosity looks fine at 8%. MM59 RE: PorosityToday 17:14Joe Creed Here are previous Tendrara Tagi average porosities and net pay (defined as Tagi porosity ~6%. TE-3 cut-off used 4%. All wells with pay proved gas as shows. Only TE-5 proved sufficient reservoir quality to flow to surface without stimulation in vertical well. Let’s hope there is deeper, clean Tagi reservoir at TE-10. WellsNet Pay (m) Av Porosity 6% % TE-1 36 7 TE-2 38 9.5 TE-3 6 4 TE-4 3 6 TE-5 30 5.5 SBK 16 4-6 TE-8 ?0 ? TE-9 ?0 ? TE-10 ?10 ?8
theprior
27 Dec 2018
TE10 Monday Impressed by the depth of the strike here though porosity seems a bit on the tight side. Still, it’s a discovery which these days is a big plus. More drilling,logging, testing, then on to te-11. TP
moneyman59
27 Dec 2018
TE10 Monday With much speculation in another place that more wire-logging info and drill through TAGI to TD may produce an RNS on early next week, it could make tomorrow an interesting trading day into the weekend. Much debate about whether it needs to be commercial to prove up the basin model. Hope this gives the LE the defibrillator treatment!!! MM59
JakNife
22 Dec 2018
Sound warming up for capital increase? My apologies for not replying earlier. I don’t like the new iii boards and don’t expect to post here anymore. Merry Christmas everyone! JakNife
theprior
21 Dec 2018
Webcam temporarily suspended Well, we haven’t got the “P&A†so that’s good news. I guess they won’t be closing down for 3 weeks over Christmas inMorocco so it’ll be full steam ahead. TP
ps200306
21 Dec 2018
Webcam temporarily suspended I don’t think they’re planning to RNS this one until after logging and analysis. We’ll either get “plugged and abandoned†or “flow testâ€.
theprior
20 Dec 2018
Webcam temporarily suspended Latest one showed drill pipes being sent down freely at a great rate of knots. Now it’s suspended. TD reached ? News imminent ? Looking forward to news TP
The_Real_Grinch
13 Dec 2018
Anyone tune into the FSC this evening? Hi TP, No I didn’t tune into the FSC - to be honest I was out of the country and out of touch with what has been going on. Personally I can’t make head or tail of the share price tbh. Mind you everything is just bizarre at the moment it seems. Just sitting on my hands so to speak but wish I’d been brave enought to pick some more up at 11.5p the other day though. Grinch
theprior
13 Dec 2018
Anyone tune into the FSC this evening? Pity no one is joining in here. It used to be such a civilised and informative discussion forum for SOU shareholders. LSE is such a disorganised collection of serious debate and comic one liners, coupled with insults and banality it is difficult to follow unless one is dedicated to LSE (which I am not! I’m solely an amuse dear observer) Today’s price action demonstrates that people were generally impressed with what they heard but it’s a shame the 20%+ increase was from such a low level. Reminds me of years back when the sp was around the same level and the company has come such a long way since then. TP
theprior
12 Dec 2018
Anyone tune into the FSC this evening? I couldn’t make it so would be interested to hear from someone who did? TP
nest_of_rampers
21 Nov 2018
Bad news tomorrow? He has to say something positive as he was saying SOU were worth £10 a share a year ago.
