numberbiter
28 Oct 2015
Re: What's wrong here? What is wrong is that despite significant capital expenditure on acquisitions there is no sign of growth. In other words, debt has increased for nothing. Also, debtor days are higher than they have been for several accounting periods, which might suggest sales are being taken earlier than might be the case if prudence was applied. Of course, sales might be legitimate and debtors are paying late, but it is still a worry. The recent collapse in the share price suggests there might be a profits warning round the corner. One thing seems certain, there will be a correction which could be up or down. In my view, the downside risk is the greater.
Greyinvestor
28 Oct 2015
Re: Margins Good thoughts. Im staying out for now, Meggitt has taken a beating this morning, and I see it as being very similar......
wuffet
28 Oct 2015
Re: Margins HiyaFor what its worth I seem to remember Boeing (or Airbus!!??) asking GKN to find some price reductions in its pricing with them and this obviously has implications for margins for aircraft parts suppliers. If the same applies to Senior as it must then that would have an impact. Deflationary environments prevail and everyone needs to address their cost base, which makes in-fill acquisitions a brave move. My other observation would be that over the years the share market has been littered with companies that grew through acquisition but unless you are adding to return on capital as opposed to just EPS growth it usually unravels in the end. This might not apply to Senior but you might want to keep an eye on their return on capital. Sorry I couldn't be more help but Senior is a stock I like but just waiting for a bit more clarity myself before committing. ggod luck
Greyinvestor
28 Oct 2015
Meggitt Profit warning out of Meggitt this morning. This will likely have a poor 'read across' to SNR today.....
Greyinvestor
27 Oct 2015
Margins Going through the half year results in detail, the loss of momentum does seem to be a margin effect. There is also quite a bit of CAPEX and increases in payables and receivables. It all adds up to a business that has been pushed as hard as it can be for now. The new CEO seems to be wanting to take on more debt and acquisitions, which feels dubious to me in the near term.I'd like to hear management say that they are going to settle down what they have, pay down debt so as to have water under the keel for the next acquisition, and get everything running well. There must be a bit of suspicion that this is a number of disparate businesses acting as a group. But the diversity does give scope for some winners to emerge.My sum of the parts valuation comes out at about £2.15 per share. So I don't think that todays price is too far out, but I don't think it's masively undervalued either. I'm still thinking........
Greyinvestor
27 Oct 2015
A tough call I've had a good, long, look at this one. There is a lot to like but one thing to dislike.If the accounts are telling the true story, each year this company has retained some earnings, then used the retained earnings plus borrowing to make further small acquisitions. These have kept the growth going. But more recently the borrowings have risen and now the earnings have not (or are forecast not to).The puzzle is whether this is saying the currency has depressed EPS growth, or is it pricing power? It makes quite a difference because the debt needs paying down, it's tripled over three years. I'm sure that this is the reason for a lower share price.I would guess that this is going to flatten off for a bit, while debt is paid down. Cash has got a bit too low as well. I think the departing CEO pushed it as hard as he could before leaving. It could take three years to rebuild the balance sheet to being nice and strong.I'm undecided. Any thoughts?
gamesinvestor
26 Oct 2015
Re: What's wrong here? Bought some at 240 on 23rdUp this morning -- probably for the same reasons it went down -- "nothing"Games
72_fastback
23 Oct 2015
Re: What's wrong here? Panmure Gordon reduced their taget price yesterday (from 400+p to about 290p).General broker consensus seems to be 'buy' though.I think it's a good solid company and haven't heard of anything amiss. A couple of very astute fund managers have decent holdings and I see Standard Life (if I recall) has been increasing its stake this month (through both 8% and 9% notifiable holdings).I'll be tempted to have a few more for the long term, although performance has been pretty weak of late.
gamesinvestor
23 Oct 2015
Re: What's wrong here? It looks remarkably cheap for such a strong company that always has delivered. There must be a fundamental reason here, because looking at the break down of the business it doesn't seem overly exposed to the oil or offshore industries, certainly as a total %.The Aerospace market growth projections are supposedly solid, so why is this not reflected here.I note that directors have been buying, but not exactly knock out numbers of shares :-22-Sep-15 Buy Andrew Bodenham 250.30p 7,534 £18,857.6022-Sep-15 Buy Derek Harding 249.00p 4,000 £9,960.0022-Sep-15 Buy David Squires 250.30p 10,000 £25,030.0002-Sep-15 Sell Derek Harding 278.30p 13,456 £37,448.0529-Apr-15 Buy Andrew Bodenham 320.10p 9,466 £30,300.67The CFO has sold more than he bought in the last 6 months, not a great sign, particularly as he sold at lowish pricing levels.Maybe they are embroiled in a corruption and bribery scandal with Rolls Royce, although their shares are up 3.69% as I type.With 3.5 times dividend cover, this is far safer than Lloyds Bank any day of the week.Games
tradingup
23 Oct 2015
Re: What's wrong here? as you rightly flag up something's amiss. strong market this morning yet this is missing out. lots of optimism at the start of the year but its slumped in recent months. so many companies in this group Ijust wonder how they manage to keep an eye on everything from the centre.
gamesinvestor
23 Oct 2015
What's wrong here? Directors buying at the 250 ish level,The numbers last time reported well but the share price is tanking - what's the news?It's approaching a 2.8% yield now -- something is wrong here, it's falling in a rising market.Games
II Editor
15 Apr 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 16/04/2015 "Anyone who's ever had the ridiculous notion that sometimes shares move in alphabetical order will be pleased to know this is a fairly normal phenomena. On the 15th, it was the turn of the middle part of the alphabet for market focus. Quite ..."[link]
albent
06 Apr 2015
Enticing income payer with sturdy financial health. Further fundamentals on Senior [link]
oldjoe1
05 Mar 2015
Re: SNR Broker Update..... <b>Senior plc’s Buy Rating Reiterated at Liberum Capital (SNR)</b>March 2nd, 2015 Updated March 5th 2015Senior plc (LON:SNR)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reissued by analysts at Liberum Capital in a research report issued to clients and investors on Monday.Analysts at Numis Securities Ltd reiterated a “buy” rating and set a GBX 340 ($5.24) price target on shares of Senior plc in a research note on Friday, February 20th. Analysts at N+1 Singer downgraded shares of Senior plc to a “hold” rating and set a GBX 312 ($4.81) price target on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, February 10th. Finally, analysts at Panmure Gordon initiated coverage on shares of Senior plc in a research note on Tuesday, February 3rd. They set a “buy” rating and a GBX 417 ($6.43) price target on the stock. One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, two have issued a hold rating and ten have issued a buy rating to the company’s stock. Senior plc currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target of GBX 337.64 ($5.20).Senior plc (LON:SNR) opened at 337.10 on Monday. Senior plc has a 52-week low of GBX 248.90 and a 52-week high of GBX 343.30. The stock’s 50-day moving average is GBX 319.7 and its 200-day moving average is GBX 289.2. The company’s market cap is £1.401 billion.Senior Plc is a United-Kingdom based manufacturing company proves engineered products for demanding operating environments. The Company operates in two divisions: Aerospace and Flextronics. Aerospace serves both the commercial aerospace and defense markets with a range of products for structures, fluid conveyance, and gas turbine engines.
oldjoe1
26 Feb 2015
SENIOR NEW HIGH.......... SNR Senior hits a new 10 year high. Forward P/E of 16.3 to 2016, still further to go.[link]
