methilman
22 Sep 2017
Re: Peel Hunt downgrade SG, many thanks for the explanation.Mm.
sharegardener
22 Sep 2017
Re: Peel Hunt downgrade Hi Methil, below gives a bit more detail, predominantly about FX impact on profits translating from USDollars. The same will apply to any company receiving overseas earnings though who knows where sterling is going longer term.I have been holding here for a while as the divi growth is consistently around 10%.SG''(ShareCast News) - Senior was under the cosh on Thursday as Peel Hunt downgraded the stock to 'reduce' from 'hold' saying a recovery in sterling could be a headwind.Peel noted the shares have risen over the summer, recovering much of their losses from over the previous two years and said the wave of aerospace M&A activity is likely to inflate sector multiples. However, it highlighted the fact that Senior is a big dollar earner and said the sharp recovery in sterling poses a potential headwind for next year.Peel pointed out that nearly 60% of group revenues are generated in the US, so the translation impact for a 10 cent movement in the US dollar is £4m at the pre-tax profit level.''"We believe it is prudent to take profits until the momentum in key Flexonics end markets and the extent of sterling recovery become clearer."The average exchange rate in the first half was $1.27 and Peel Hunt has a full-year average rate of $1.25 this year and next. If the current spot of $1.35 prevails, it expects a £2m headwind in the second half and a £4m headwind next year, versus its current forecasts.The brokerage cut its FY2017 pre-tax profit estimate by £1m to £68m and its earnings per share estimate by 1% to 13p."Although there is a modest shift in the divisional mix, as we no longer anticipate a material improvement in the Flexonics margin in H2, the net PBT reduction largely reflects a £2m increase in central costs, offset by a £1m reduction in net interest."At 1440 BST, the shares were down 4.6% to 259.40p.
methilman
21 Sep 2017
Peel Hunt downgrade Anyone aware of why PH have done this?Mm.
gamesinvestor
01 Aug 2016
Sold Trading update drives stock up but results look poor and the debt is quite high now, with a growing pension deficit and falling profit margins.Made small loss here -- time to move on.Games
methilman
22 Jun 2016
Re: Trading update I think the drop in sp has been overdone against an admittedly not particularly optimistic statement.The dividend is not in danger and management have shown previously that they can cut costs.A modest punt at anything under 200p will benefit from a satisfactory yield whilst waiting for an expected (by me if no one else) recovery in the sp.Mm.
Simbrad
21 Jun 2016
"Further deterioration in Flexonics markets is disappointing, having already downgraded significantly earlier in the year. Aerospace remains the key attraction within the Group; with increasing content on the major new commercial aircraft programmes, Senior is well placed to benefit over the next 5 to 10 years; however, ongoing Flexonics problems are overshadowing the positives elsewhere. We expect the share price to be weak today and sentiment needs to be rebuilt with a period of forecast stability." Singer note out this morning on Research Tree
gamesinvestor
21 Jun 2016
Trading update Aerospace expected upFlexonics 8-9% downmarket doesn't like it and the stock hits 192.3 as I type -- down 14.2%[link] -- I warned myself earlier on and took no notice of myself - clutz!!
gamesinvestor
26 Apr 2016
Cobham Is there a link between what is happening to Cobham and Senior?Not overlapping businesses entirely, but there are some synergies. The issues at Cobham seem to be operational, but could there be a large ongoiung element of market weakness.I'm hoping not to wake up and see a similar report on Senior -- I've been looking through previous reports and I'm growing less interested in this one. It's less than 1/2% of my wad at the moment and I was planning to build a stake, but now I'm thinking of backing out altogether ar a current breakeven position. Here is the Cobham report today :-Shares in FTSE 250 aerospace and defence group Cobham tanked after it proposed a £500m rights issue in the second quarter of the year as it reported a big drop in first-quarter trading profit.Profit fell to £15m from £50m in the first quarter of 2015, missing the board’s expectations. The company attributed the slow start to the year to operational issues in the Wireless business resulting in delayed shipments and a one-off charge of £9m.It also pointed to increasing headwinds in the commercial fly-in fly-out business and cost increases on a small number of development programmes in the Advanced Electronics Solutions Sector.For the full year, the profit shortfall is expected to be about £15m, Cobham said, as it confirmed its intention to rebase the dividend and pay out the same amount this year as last.The company said on Tuesday that it is targeting run-rate net savings of around £30m per year by 31 December 2016, with anticipated net savings of £10m to be delivered in 2016. These savings will be achieved from a combination of restructuring, manufacturing outsourcing and overhead reduction activities across the group.Cobham also laid out plans for a rights issue in the second quarter.Chief executive Bob Murphy said: “In order to put the company on a sound footing and to secure funding for our major development programmes in the longer term, we have decided to refinance the business through a rights issue to raise approximately £500m.”JPMorgan said the rights issue was immediately 18% EPS dilutive on its estimates. In addition, it said the three main issues affecting profit are all new.RBC Capital Markets said that besides the 5% cut to profit guidance, “this morning’s release raises concerns regarding execution, which may take a while to rebuild”.At 1004 BST, Cobham shares were down 20% to 172.80p.
Greyinvestor
19 Nov 2015
First purchase Sold my loss making PFL this morning and switched the proceeds into SNR. I think that SNR has a better long term prospect of climbing........
Greyinvestor
19 Nov 2015
Re: director holdings Sorry, only just looked at this board and going out soon.It sounds to me as though the year end will be about £96m profit ie EPS of 18p.Debt now around £154m so may rise to £214m post acquisition.It's manageable as long as earnings don't fall away. My only gripe is that the acquisitions have simply been building size, not EPS. This is a recent issue, and may be caused by a) currency as well as b) price competition.Management has talked down expectations, correctly in my view. I think that these shares may be settling at fair value.I haven't bought but I am thinking......
gamesinvestor
01 Nov 2015
Santa Rally [link] top tip on the buy side for year end.Games -- probably meaningless, but in focus nevertheless
gamesinvestor
01 Nov 2015
Re: director holdings "The borrowings v EPs growth"Grey, what is the concern with this ratio?On balance the borrowings don't seem excessive compared to it's absolute debt. In terms of any relation to earnings growth, I would have thought the P/E was the thing to consider here, along with any rate of growth of debt, rather than the absolute debt figure.The debt in the last 5 years has been declining as the net profits have been rising as indicated in the last post.Games - unless my figures are wrong or out of date
Greyinvestor
30 Oct 2015
director holdings These are firmly on my watch list. The borrowings v EPs growth and the exceptionally low director holdings are the concern, something that should have been a warning flag for me at PFL. I will continue to watch....
wuffet
30 Oct 2015
Re: What's wrong here? hi gamesvery sensible comments!!I'm waiting for confirmation that trading is ok. I noticed at the interims that the outlook statement was quite bullish but since then others in the aerospace industry have been a little more downbeat. If they were confident a director would pop up and add a few shares but if they were aware that trading was not up to scratch they would be insiders and unable to do anything and unwilling to!!All will be revealed soon but the comment to buy good companies when they are out of favour and when fear rules is a good one. the debt to mkt cap is very low and returns on capital are high.good luck
gamesinvestor
29 Oct 2015
Re: What's wrong here? "despite significant capital expenditure on acquisitions there is no sign of growth"number, I'm curious about that statement.Senior has grown it's revenue from £566M to £820M in 5 years (granted acquisitions play a part)During that 5 year period, it's borrowings have actually fallen from £126M to £108M.Also during this time it's pre-tax profit has risen from £62M to £90MSo the relative debt here is quite low compared to the majority of the companies in it's sphere.Don't get me wrong I'm not hollering from the roof tops that this is a strong buy, but it's definitely not a bad company at all and considering it's share price has dropped from the 360 level where it was clearly overpriced, as was Meggit, Rolls Royce, BAE Systems and the like.At these levels (217 as I type) you shouldn't be a million miles out if you want a 3+% yield on a company with some growth potential for the next 5 years.I doubt the world is falling off a cliff, so there is a time to buy into good companies, and it's invariably best when everyone is packing their bags and heading to deposit their money in Lloyds Bank at 0.5%, with a high probability it will go bust when the housing market comes to it's senses.Games
