Scottish Mortgage IT Live Discussion

Uncle_Doug 17 Dec 2019

SMT - change of recent fortune? Have a look at this: This is Money – 25 Nov 19 Scottish Mortgage's James Anderson on investing for growth Stock market returns are dominated by the identification and compounding of a very small number of great companies, says Cottis

Uncle_Doug 17 Dec 2019

SMT - change of recent fortune? Up 12% since I got back in 2 months ago. I’ll take 550p.

Eadwig 04 Dec 2019

SMT - change of recent fortune? Ripley94: I thought I read S M T ( rather like Woodford ) had been investing in small company’s? I suppose some of them might be small. There are some of the biggest companies in the world in there making up a significant portion of the portfolio though. If you want to look into the market cap of some of those below I’d be interested to hear what it is, what they do etc. Any companies invested in that don’t make up 0.7% of the portfolio aren’t listed which leaves 20% we don’t know about. There could easily be some small businesses in there. 0.7% of SMT = approx USD$67m by the way, so they could have a lot of stakes in a lot of smaller companies not listed here. That is worked on market cap. I assume SMT are valued at under market cap, which would mean an even bigger number = 0.7% Fund % 1 Amazon.com 9.0% 2 Illumina 7.1% 3 Alibaba 6.3% 4 Tesla Inc 5.8% 5 Tencent 5.7% 6 ASML 3.9% 7 Kering 3.6% 8 Ferrari NV 3.0% 9 Netflix Inc 2.5% 10 Ant International Co Limited Class C Ord. 2.4% 11 Inditex 2.3% 12 Spotify Technology SA 2.2% 13 Delivery Hero AG 2.0% 14 Alphabet Inc Class C 1.7% 15 NVIDIA 1.6% 16 Facebook 1.5% 17 Meituan Dianping 1.4% 18 You & Mr Jones Class A Units 1.4% 19 Workday Inc 1.3% 20 Trip.com Group 1.3% 21 Intuitive Surgical 1.3% 22 HDFC Corp 1.2% 23 Zalando SE 1.2% 24 Atlas Copco A 1.2% 25 Kinnevik 1.1% 26 Grail Inc Series B Pref. 1.0% 27 Ginkgo Bioworks Inc Series D Pref. 0.9% 28 Ginkgo Bioworks Inc Series C Pref. 0.9% 29 Anaplan Inc Common 0.8% 30 Pinduoduo Inc ADR 0.8% 31 Shopify ‘A’ 0.8% 32 HelloFresh SE Ordinary 0.8% 33 Tempus Labs, Inc. Series E Pref. 0.7% Total 78.4%

Ripley94 04 Dec 2019

SMT - change of recent fortune? I thought I read S M T ( rather like Woodford ) had been investing in small company’s?

Eadwig 03 Dec 2019

SMT - change of recent fortune? Ripley94: followed by the group’s flagship investment trust Scottish Mortgage, which lost 5.1%. Strange coincidence, I just finished reading an article about growth companies being hit badly in the downturn should it finally arrive … like we didn’t already know that would be the case … “BAML notes recession risk is on the rise given we are late cycle in the U.S. economic growth story. That could lead to winners in real assets and infrastructure as governments spend more to ignite growth. Losers during a recession would be growth stocks, BAML surmises.”

Ripley94 03 Dec 2019

SMT - change of recent fortune? SMT… XXXXX Saw this on lse from money observer 16th October 2019 , the low was shortly after on this one 472p 23rd October. Baillie Gifford American is the worst-performing Baillie Gifford-managed Rated Fund with a 6.6% loss over the quarter, followed by the group’s flagship investment trust Scottish Mortgage, which lost 5.1%.

Eadwig 30 Nov 2019

Building A Position Ripley94: What are you buying at the moment ? I do not see what that spat is all about between you and some other guy on SLE bb. I thought you liked SLE ??? Nothing in mind particularly except AFC if it drops far enough before Friday. Building positions in SMT, RDSB and HSBA but over a very long time period. Next buys and sells will depend very much on the price in relation to my current holding average. I sold a tranche in SMt last week @532p I think it was - average now around @468p I don’t like SLE and would never advise anyone to get involved with them. Some of the worst management I’ve ever seen. I do have tranches for a trade in SLE at the moment but I’m not a fan long term. I bought a tranche in anticipation of another tendered buyback like the last one. That isn’t going to happen. They have announced a very small tendered buyback. I thought they are so illiquid that a small buyback would see the price move up quite sharply - enough for me to make a profit on anyway IF I averaged down by buying two more tranches in the @20s. That’s gone bad at the moment with the buyback almost half way done. It might come good yet, but its looking doubtful. The guy you speak of is a ‘cheerleader’ for SLE. I.e. He is supposedly heavily invested and wont stand for any criticism of the management or the company and somehow thinks if I voice such opinions I need to be shouted down - or anyone else that does. He also posts pretty much nothing but positive ‘news’ and why the company should really be valued at anything up to @130p etc etc. It isn’t real news, it is intentions of them doing things to make things better - as they have been posting and failing to do since I first invested in them in 2013 - an investment I’ve lost 97% on as things stand. You can read what he writes, he does know a lot about the company, but he is currently talking up a new system they have paid for to stop losses from pipelines when he was calling me an idiot for warning about exactly that back in 2016. I was 4 years ahead of where they are aiming to be by mid summer next year, but still wrong according to him. At the end of the day the only truth is the tape, and the tape right now says SLE is worth about @25p if you are selling - everything else is anticipation and wishful thinking. At least my attempted trade was pretty modest with a target price of mid @30s to make a decent return. No point in wasting more time on it here. You’ll have to make your own mind up. Ultimately the price the market allocates to their stock say who is right or wrong.

Eadwig 30 Nov 2019

Building A Position Ripley94: I M M made me think it’s all guess work. Hindsight might make my second slice look a good move by Monday. Don’t know anything about IMM except they spiked up recently - if you took some profit all well and good. Nobody ever went broke taking profits. Ripley94: What would you have done? I would definitely have taken some on a 100% rise.

Eadwig 30 Nov 2019

Building A Position Ripley94: I noticed Tom Winifrith made a derogatory remark about A f c in the week. I only glimpsed it. Do you look at his views. No, recognise the name but that is about it. I have my own views on AFc and not looking at anyone elses right now. Big day on Friday next week, I may buy another tranche for a trade if it drops to approx @17p in t he 4 days before then. Still have plenty to sell if the news is good on Friday and the price moves on upwards towards @28p highs we saw last Monday. Ripley94: Just had a look i see you mentioned Democratic Republic of Congo…on another tap before i noticed it and posted . That will have been with regard to GLEN I assume. Haven’t posted anything about them recently except to note they have an investor presentation coming up next week. Probably the best source of news on them because analysts get to ask the board questions direct in the Q&A afterwards. GLENCORE INVESTOR UPDATE PRESENTATION Glencore plc will host an investor update presentation on Tuesday, 3 December 2019 at 2 pm UK. The investor update presentation will be screened by the Regulatory News Service of the London Stock Exchange and will be available on our website at 1 pm UK. A live webcast starting at 2 pm UK will be accessible at: edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/jajmqzbc The webcast will be archived on our website within 24 hours of the presentation ending.

Ripley94 30 Nov 2019

Building A Position Eadwig… XXXX Just had a look i see you mentioned Democratic Republic of Congo…on another tap before i noticed it and posted . I am not able to look at company accounts . What are you buying at the moment ? I do not see what that spat is all about between you and some other guy on SLE bb. I thought you liked SLE ???

Ripley94 30 Nov 2019

Building A Position Good for you I am nowhere near highs and feel just treading water most times. I noticed Tom Winifrith made a derogatory remark about A f c in the week. I only glimpsed it. Do you look at his views. I M M made me think it’s all guess work. Hindsight might make my second slice look a good move Monday. Or it could be a better place to top up whith foresight. What would you have done?

Eadwig 29 Nov 2019

Building A Position Ripley94: Thank you Eadwig hope you have had a good week. Finished at record highs, so yes, not a bad one! I expect next week to be better - come on AFC!

Eadwig 29 Nov 2019

Building A Position Ripley94: I like Glen. I know the company well. You’ve probably seen my posts on there. Sometimes I feel a bit limited by the companies I know and it takes a lot of time to research a new company and keep up to date with it. I don’t do so well when I try to invest in others, say because their chart looks good or they are a big, ‘safe’ FTSE 100 company whose accounts I don’t really understand. Its surprising how often I’ve got myself into trouble with such ‘blue chip’ companies.

Ripley94 29 Nov 2019

Building A Position Thank you Eadwig hope you have had a good week. Imm yesterday reminded me how little I know sliced twice much to early got last one right but got it back to early . I hold Glen ( One of so many sure I must of posted on that board. ) I like Glen.

Eadwig 28 Nov 2019

Building A Position Here is one view of ‘trading around a core position’. It makes some points I agree with (such as concentrating better once you have ‘skin in the game’ and some I don’t agree with so much, such as the ‘diversification of risk’. I can see the point but it isn’t that relevant I think. RealMoney – 10 Feb 18 Trading Around a Core Position It is a good way to make more concentrated bets but to still have some level of diversification. I’ll see if I can’t find something better when I have time, otherwise I’ll maybe write it all down with worked examples of the changing average (and yield) as I go. Its something I end up doing every couple of years anyway trying to explain it to people, although I’ve had only moderate success. ah! just spotted another link and this is a bit closer to what I do, although perhaps my own technique and goals have evolved into something different. For example I usually buy bigger tranches as the price falls which reduces your average holding price more quickly … but that does start to get complicated so I’ll not go into it for now. CNBC – 2 May 12 Cramer on How to Trade Around a Core Position The “Mad Money” host explains one of the most basic and useful disciplines. Need I add that it helps to have a broker with low trading charges for this kind of approach and it also helps if there is no 0.5% stamp duty hurdle either, especially if working on 3% increments as in this example (I usually work on 5%-6%). It is also imperative that you have the cash on hand when opening a position to go back for more if the price continues to drop - assuming nothing has changed and you still like the stock, of course! I don’t normally take this approach unless it is a stock I know very well, by the way. I’m usually prepared to go 4 buys in a row when opening a new position, although I’m wondering by then what I am missing if the price keeps dropping when I thought my first buy was at a good price. GLEN has no stamp duty and I have traded around a position all year in 2 accounts bringing my average holding book price down to @238p in one (first buy in last 12 month was @304p followed by a sell @338p, although this is a long term holding that once averaged nearer @400p) and @230p in the other (first buy @258p in June, opening a new position in my SIPP). If I didn’t take this approach I’d be well under water in both positions. As it currently stands, instead I’m in a small profit and have taken large dividends in GBP and USD. More importantly I’m well positioned to either buy again on any drop or sell on any rise to continue the process. I’ve made 17 trades in the last 12 months on the first position and 8 in the second position opened 5 months ago. This is an above average number, but this is in the volatile mining sector, so plenty of opportunities. image.png639x619 27.3 KB