San Leon Energy Live Discussion

Alaric 01 Dec 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 … and yet you still hold and indeed bought more in October. as i suggested before, that’s one bizarre investment strategy.

Eadwig 30 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 Alaric: but you don’t agree, which is just fine by me provided you stop writing at length about a stock, which by your own admission you neither like nor understand. And you have the cheek to call me pompous! I’ll continue to post whatever I like wherever I like, thanks, and I have admitted nothing of the sort. In fact, I pointed out the operational problems with OML 18 in 2016, remember? The company is just now catching up … you’d do yourself a favour if you could actually admit the reality and recognise that you were one of those not even prepared to listen at the time, let alone understand. Not that it took any great understanding, the problems were laid out plainly in the annual report of the company from which SLE purchased its interest (MART something or other was it? I forget). When someone is selling something, isn’t it normal to ask why they’re selling? Especially when they’re going bankrupt with production hedged at $90 a barrel. By the time SLE might have addressed the problems sufficiently, 4 years will have passed. More like 5 from the date of the reports describing them which were available in the public domain. I neither like nor dislike any stock. Getting emotionally attached to a stock is ridiculous. I don’t have any faith in SLE management successfully executing the operating business case for obvious reasons. I.e. They never have. I’ll state that loud and clear as and when I feel it needs to be said.

Alaric 30 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 just meant to add, you need to lose your toady, melody maker. he’s a jerk and adds nothing to your bizarre investment story.

linksdean 30 Nov 2019

Could be interesting! [link]

Alaric 30 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 look Eadwig we need to wrap this discussion. this stock is now so deeply discounted as to be absurd: short of armagedon i don’t see any downside now but only a big upside for reasons given. but you don’t agree, which is just fine by me provided you stop writing at length about a stock, which by your own admission you neither like nor understand. you don’t buy the company’s business case, its present strategy or its management. everything you write suggests to me that you are wholly unsuited to investments like San Leon. do yourself a favour and all of us at the same time and go. if your portfolio has done as well as you say, why not sell and take the tax loss? enough now.

linksdean 30 Nov 2019

Could be interesting! WSJ Aramco IPO Draws Bids of $44.3 Billion, as Global Investors Steer Clear Saudi Aramco’s share sale has attracted bids of $44.3 billion and remains on course to be the world’s largest listing. However, global investors are steering clear.

Eadwig 30 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 Alaric: for sure in short term horizon investing, you shouldn’t be messing with stocks like san leon! If you think I should sell now you must think there is more down side than upside from this point, which I don’t believe and I don’t think you do either so I wonder at your ‘advice’ to realise a loss now. If I have to take a loss so be it. Friday’s close saw my highest ever portfolio value ever, so I’ll continue with my investing/trading strategy which has served me well over 25 years, thanks. Operational profits are a long way off according to the H1 results, even if the latest well adds another 5000 bpd it will only reduce losses so far as I can see. As for ACOES being ‘transformational’ that remains to be seen and it will take a long time for that picture to become clear. Individual investors will have to take their own view on that and what it means for the longer term.

linksdean 30 Nov 2019

Could be interesting! AF – 28 Nov 19 W. Africa Crude-Demand for Nigerian oil high, though loading issues continue Gasoline cracks and high prices for competing North Sea grades kept price offers...

Alaric 30 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 wow you’ve certainly written with some candour, Eadwig, from the ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’ primary school of investing. well thanks for that. for sure in short term horizon investing, you shouldn’t be messing with stocks like san leon! (aside from pure arb plays i’m not really sure what short term investing is but i guess there’s a few million sucker day traders out there every day losing). if i may offer some advice myself? your short term punt here has gone spectacularly wrong and it has unwittingly become first a medium term play and now a long term one (OK admission : even i thought we’d be here by now). but why not face that reality now - this was always a ‘story’ investment, which would take some time to develop. and given you have unwittingly but, as it will turn out, quite cleverly built a position sub 30p, you could belatedly choose to accept the new strategy that fate has thrust on you. the big point you are still missing is that the ACOES isn’t just a bit of news on progress, it will be transformational to OML18 production and thus revenues. you need to do the maths on what you think the asset is worth now, compared to when it was first acquired. i’ve lost track of production a bit now but something like 30k a day after losses, which is awful but way more than Shell ended up doing. and then take the losses away and you’re north of 50k a day and then with field development you are heading towards their target of 100k plus. but forget the last figure though because it doesn’t matter for now and sure will take more time to reach. at 50k a day, the field will be funding dividends to shareholders for the first time. that’s actual oil revenue for the first time, not just some medium term financing revenue from a very clever deal that Oisin and Martin Hughes pulled off to fund this whole thing. so what value the asset then? this is the only question for investors to ask about san leon. and then you still have the potential for short-term organic growth - what if we acquire a bigger interest in OML18 from NNPC at this turning point in the field’s history, but i think that’s too much story now for your short term sensibilities. if not for you, though, you should sell. one last recent thought to ponder from bluerill on the other board: ‘In the meantime I think that, while the drifting share price is painfully frustrating, this buyback period is not only helping a year-end tax loss/margin-pressured seller to reduce efficiently, but it is also allowing a smart buyer or buyers to build a position outside the company’s buying.’

Eadwig 29 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 Date ++ Shares ++ Price ++ Total. Running Total* 18 Oct . 94,482 -26.46p £25,250 $32,572 21 Oct . 29,000 -27.91p .£8,174 $43,199 22 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $75,771 23 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $108,283 24 Oct. 88,192 -28.35p £25,252 $‭140,859 25 Oct. --------- --------- £--------- $140,859 28 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $173,178 29 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $205,750 10% completed 30 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $‭238,322 31 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $270,895 01 Nov. 88,967 -28.10p £25,250 $303,467 04 Nov. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $336,040 05 Nov. 92,165 -27.125p £25,250 $368,612 06 Nov. 92,592 -27.00p £25,250 $401,184 20% Completed 07 Nov. 90,909 -27.50p £25,250 $433,504 08. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭465,824 11. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭498,144 25% Completed 12. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $530,464 13. Nov. 91,575, -27.30p £25,250 $‭562,784 14. Nov. 93,283 -26.30p £25,250 $595,104 30% completed 15. Nov. 92,250 -27.10p £25,250 $627,677 18. Nov. 94,339 -26.50p £25,250 $660,502 1/3rd completed 19. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $693,074 20. Nov. 97,656 -25.60p £25,250 $725,646 21. Nov. 97,276 -25.70p £25,250 $758,215 22. Nov. 98,039 -25.50p £25,250 $790,535 25. Nov. 96,153 -26.00p £25,250 $823,107 approx 41% completed 26. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $855,680 27. Nov. 97,513 -25.64p £25,250 $888,252 28. Nov. 97,656 @25.60p £25,250 $920,826 29. Nov. 94,768 @26.38p £25,250 $‭953,399** To be confirmed in Monday’s RNS Total number of Ordinary Shares in issue with voting rights now ‭452,911,921‬** *Approx Running total in US Dollars inc. 1% stamp duty Fx rate taken from US close and rounded to the nearest cent.

linksdean 29 Nov 2019

Could be interesting! FXStreet OPEC oil output falls 110,000 bpd in November to 29.57M bpd – Reuters Crude oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November to 29.57 million bpd, a Reute

melody2maker 29 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 Eadwig - Thanks for your comments - your reply to Alaric is more than the little pipsqueak deserves.

Eadwig 29 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 Alaric: in my view san leon is far too risky a play, as you appear to have done, for short term gains A lot of people would agree with you on that - in fact several have warned me against a basically standard trade in a company that is so illiquid. I may well end up paying a price for such a mistake. It wont be the first or last time. If I get 3 out of every 5 right and keep the losses down on the bad ones, that equates to a reasonable profit at the end of each year. Usually. I thought I was being clever and that the illiquidity would play into my hands and that even such a small buyback might push the price up for greater gains. I didn’t expect the daily buy to be so small and regular and evenly spread though. Not that I had any reason to believe it would be otherwise. That’s the risk though, isn’t it? There were a couple of other reasons (bad ones it seems now) I won’t bore you with, but at the end of the day it hasn’t worked - and doesn’t look like it will at this point. I’ll have to take a decision when the dividend is finally announced, probably, because I don’t think anything else will boost the share price prior to the next trading statement - which will have to be a lot better than the last one. Alaric: if you don’t buy that part of the story (as clearly i do) then i don’t understand how you remain invested here. Its not that I don’t buy it necessarily. It is a timescale I’m not interested in for my own investment strategy/horizons, or whatever you want to label it. I hoped to be out of this trade before Xmas, for example. If I can make 15% in 6 months I’m well ahead of the game. I thought I saw an opportunity to do that here. Alaric: i think we will still need more visibility on the ACOES and next year, than some clever posters tracking the FSO’s progress through the indian ocean. I’m skeptical about rises on progress because SLE’s price hasn’t reacted to positive news for a long time. It doesn’t react to oil price rises, which is a sign too I think. SLE is stuck somewhere between jaded investors (and market) and producing accounts showing an operating profit - with the wild card of the loan note cash to pay out. So, positive news flow isn’t going to move the needle very much, I don’t think. It will have to be hard news of cash pay outs or accounts showing operational profits made … not more promises about potential. That is my genuine view based on past observations. I’ve been involved in an energy company for a long time that had got itself into a similar position. Too many promises, too little delivered, especially on time. Recently they took on a new non-exec from Rolls Royce who is used to the technology and put in charge of the commercial side and paid in warrants at @5p I’m not quite sure what he’s done differently, but after 10 years there is a product launch coming on 6th December (clearly timetabled in advance), and suddenly every time a little bit of positive news was released it has raised the share price. A big announcement; 100% in two days, then another and another 100% rise. Then a small one … a director buys about £10ks worth of shares (big deal!) and it adds another 100%. @5p to @28p in about 6 days… and I’m betting it goes again on the 6th Dec now it has fallen back a bit. That is the sort of thing SLE need. I mean P.R.-wise, not a new product. They’ve never been any good at P.R. and don’t seem to care about the share price. Some people say management shouldn’t. I’m in the other camp. I think that is one of the jobs of a CEO. So there you are. You may not understand my strategy still, but for a full understanding of anyone’s approach you do actually need to know their age and what their goals are and how long they are allowing to achieve them. Its the first thing a financial advisor wants to know from you, and with good reason. If you think its garbage you should maybe talk to a professional some time and put a plan in place for yourself. First thing he’ll say is ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’. You can have that one for free.

Alaric 29 Nov 2019

New Buy Back Oct 2019 maybe we’re at cross purposes Eadwig. personally i reckon anything you’ve bought sub 30p is pretty decent but i would, at this late stage of the story, be patient for a bit longer. i am also surprised that people are selling at these levels (particularly given the story slowly unfolding now and the hugely improved downside exposure) and that we have slid back as much as we have. the principal shareholders haven’t been selling though. that said i am not so surprised that the sbb and general divi announcement of themselves didn’t do it. i think we will still need more visibility on the ACOES and next year, than some clever posters tracking the FSO’s progress through the indian ocean. in my view san leon is far too risky a play, as you appear to have done, for short term gains in a broken AIM hydrocarbons sector and given our heavy institutional ownership (unattractive to other hedge funds coming in and thus rendering us too reliant on retail buying in the free float). but any maths you do on the value of OML18 now compared to when it was acquired quickly and easily demonstrates the value proposition. as you know i see efficient export of oil from the field now as the key to value release and further value enhancement through field development. if you don’t buy that part of the story (as clearly i do) then i don’t understand how you remain invested here. reading your comments about the company’s role in the further exploration and development of OML18 suggest you are badly out of step with the reality here, though. i don’t look to mock you but i genuinely don’t understand your strategy. i am not addressing the rest of your garbage about your portfolio management, my age and my portfolio, as it is what it says on the pack, just that.

linksdean 29 Nov 2019

Could be interesting! OilPrice.com This U.S. Shale Giant Is On The Brink Of Collapse | OilPrice.com Chesapeake Energy, one of America’s largest shale drillers, saw its share price plunge earlier this month when it warned investors that it may not be able to service its debt - but the company isn't dead yet