Bill1703
07 Mar 2017
Re: Why the dip today? "I know many of us scoff at broker notes, not least me ... However, some undeniably move the market I have come to realise to the extent that when I see a quite sharp move out of nowhere on no news, I go search for one and 90% of the time I find it.... I might try and do an analysis on the impact they have and which brokers have more than others, if any, or which companies are more susceptible."Eadwig - I've never been convinced that broker notes have too much lasting impact... even when I was writing them myself! Yes, on a quiet day in thin trading, you might get a temporary reaction, but more often than not this works its way back out quickly enough. Unless there is some kind of follow-up corroboration by way of fundamental newsflow, or (more usually) significant genuine institutional net buying (or selling)... but few brokers have that much clout with their clients on any regular basis.There are exceptions, where an analyst comes up with a meaningful new angle which the market has hitherto overlooked... but such is relatively rare, amidst the bombardment of more mundane views churned out on a daily basis.But I'd be interested in the findings of any such analysis... The irony is that broking analysts are supposed to offer medium/long term investment views rather than trading tips, yet the short-term SP impact of their views will likely have more influence on those trading rather than investing. For the long term buy-and-hold people, it's probably much less of an issue. "I now find myself looking at broker coverage and where its at when I'm verging on making a buy decision.... I haven't been doing this long so can't say if this is a worthwhile practice as yet, I feel it probably is."I too often look at broker views as a cross-check, without ever putting too much weight on them... likewise with their consensus forecasts (which at least save me from having to run the numbers myself). I tend to liken brokers to football pundits... there are loads of them, filling the airwaves and wires with an incessant cacophony of noise, and all you want them to do is tell you something you didn't already know. And when they do, it's a real event... but a rare one. It's hardly surprising, in a very saturated field, with so many effectively working with all the same information (at least these days) - most of which is freely available to us amateurs on here. The thing to remember, as I always advise... for most of us on here it is natural to think of the brokers' recommendations and price targets as the be all and end all of their work (it is all the amateurs see, typically). Yet their clients have always ranked these pretty far down on the list of useful things that brokers do, whenever they have been surveyed. And there has always been pretty low correlation between how a broker's stock views fare and how highly they are ranked among peers - and how much they are paid.
EssentialInvestor
07 Mar 2017
Re: Standard Life in bed with Aberdeen A... Sold my small amount last week at 3.70 and was particularly pleased with myself,that changed for some reason ).Buying DLG today, like it a lot, lower would be lovely.Extraordinary lack of volatility for markets, a very long time since I remember conditions like this, usually ends with a bang.
Bill1703
07 Mar 2017
Re: Standard Life in bed with Aberdeen A... "I've been mulling over that statement of yourn and I don't see why that should necessarily be the case, though I may be overlooking some basic point.... Whether markets/indices are in a bull, bear, or flat phase there will always be some shares which are doing particularly well or, at worst, less worse than the market/index.... It is the job of the active stockpicker to seek out them "better" shares and buy the suckers. If'n he does that he'll do better than the passive algo monkey innit though?"LKH - fund managers earn fees as a % of FUM... in buoyant markets, FUM tends to go up, so fee income goes up! Bingo.... And no matter how differentiated and 'active' many like to portray themselves, in buoyant markets the big majority will do well (though some better than others, natch), and in bear markets most will struggle in absolute terms.And also - historically at least - you had the tendency for most fund managers to find it easier to attract new money if their funds are going up (even if not as 'up' as others - when times are generally good, people tend not to look too closely). So you had further positive gearing to rising markets... of course, with the (relatively new) growth in cheap passive options, this has probably been less of a positive for many (and will have worked against some, as peeps withdraw high-charge funds to put into a tracker which will still do pretty well in buoyant times)."Looks as if Mr Market is having second thoughts about the horrifying image of Gilbert and Sullivan clambering into the sack together."Certainly, from everything I hear from people in the market, nobody is buying this co-CEO thing... a contradiction in terms in itself. I think people need to look at it, not as some whizzy value-creating growth deal, but as an essentially defensive move in an industry under considerable pressure - not matter if you are, or at least have been, a leader therein.
pearlsasinger
07 Mar 2017
Re: Why the dip today? Eadwig - Thank you--a very good dissertationon 'market realism'. There are so many potentialforces(electronic, human and other) out there - that sometimes I think it is amazingthat small fish- such as I - survive the sharks.But we do. And we shall!
Eadwig
07 Mar 2017
Re: Why the dip today? After a big rise like yesterday, there will always be some profit taking, and perhaps sober reflection too. If you're a slick, leveraged day trader, they are the sorts of predictable moves you can make fast bucks on.Also, A broker note downgraded AAM this morning quite significantly. I don't remember the details, sorry. Whereas another note on SL was a re-affirmation with a 10p upgrade in target price from @440p to @450p - not enough to offset any impact from the other. I know many of us scoff at broker notes, not least me, especially Liberum capital spring to mind with their mining coverage. However, some undeniably move the market I have come to realise to the extent that when I see a quite sharp move out of nowhere on no news, I go search for one and 90% of the time I find it.Once you're at that stage, you can no longer dismiss them as irrelevancies, I think. If I had more time on my hands (like about an extra 12 hours in the day), I might try and do an analysis on the impact they have and which brokers have more than others, if any, or which companies are more susceptible.I now find myself looking at broker coverage and where its at when I'm verging on making a buy decision. If whatever coverage there is is all in the hold or sell areas, and I think I have seen a catalyst for this stock approaching, I'm now factoring in the fact that there may be a number of positive broker notes released which may help propel any upward movement in the share price over time. I haven't been doing this long so can't say if this is a worthwhile practice as yet, I feel it probably is.I just sold a tranche in a company who had slightly worse than expected results, a company I actually like very much for the long term. I expect on the back of the results there will be a number of brokers downgrading or reducing price targets, which should accelerate the downward move on the share price that is due anyway judging by the pattern of the last 2 years. My aim is to buy back the tranche I just sold around 5-10% lower.If someone had suggested a year ago that I would be doing such a thing, I'd have laughed at them. Perhaps I'll be laughing at myself in another year, but for now I'm paying more attention. Yahoo finance tends to show the number of brokers covering a company and the current average recommendation, if anyone is interested.
LK Hyman
07 Mar 2017
Re: Standard Life in bed with Aberdeen A... Bill,"you also highlight the paradox confronting the active guys... They make more money in buoyant bull markets"I've been mulling over that statement of yourn and I don't see why that should necessarily be the case, though I may be overlooking some basic point.Whether markets/indices are in a bull, bear, or flat phase there will always be some shares which are doing particularly well or, at worst, less worse than the market/index.It is the job of the active stockpicker to seek out them "better" shares and buy the suckers. If'n he does that he'll do better than the passive algo monkey innit though?Looks as if Mr Market is having second thoughts about the horrifying image of Gilbert and Sullivan clambering into the sack together.[link] on the flybridge I am the co-Captain of the Pinafore LO
pearlsasinger
07 Mar 2017
Re: Why the dip today? I would say the dip is a consequence of mature reflection by analysts on the merger.Essentially there is no compelling argument in favour.;And no sign of any early profit/reward-even -if the merger is seen to have worked in two or three years
LifeInPlastic
07 Mar 2017
Why the dip today? Just a general market drop or is there something particular in the many rns's that just came out?
Eadwig
07 Mar 2017
Re: Standard Life in bed with Aberdeen A... Bill, "yet their reason to exist will increasingly only stand up in less prosperous times"I use funds to diversify my portfolio, both geographically but also in sectors that require a lot of specific knowledge such as biotech. I often buy into these with every intention of holding long term, 5-10 years.When picking a fund, as long as I can remember I've always tried to compare their performance during bear markets as the best indicator of the one to pick. You then have to keep an eye on the fund in case the fund manager changes, though.
Eadwig
07 Mar 2017
Re: Standard Life in bed with Aberdeen A... LKH, "anyone with even a passing interest in the stock market ... such as presumably the great majority of those who post here ... ought to have a sporting chance of outperforming both via picking individual stocks"I think that's true. But, by the time you've diversified enough it takes quite lot of time up keeping an eye on your picks and being ready to change them if they go off the rails. Which also generally means keeping another one or two on your 'shopping list' unless you're prepared to sell a company that has gone bad and sit in cash for quite a while until you get time for your next pick.Clearly, not everyone has that kind of time - and many people don't have enough interest. Picking your own stocks and not putting the effort into monitor them regularly is a recipe for disaster. A tracker is much safer (but not while the markets are where they are!).Jim Cramer (Mad Money/CNBC fame) recommends having one or two 'exciting' stocks - presumably the equivalent of AIM stocks in the UK - which make you want to check your portfolio more frequently. Well, its an idea I suppose. Once the novelty wears off you could find yourself in even deeper trouble when you next check out your portfolio 6 months down the line.
Bowman
06 Mar 2017
Re: Share certificates??? Up until today there was nothing to tell shareholders about. However, now the tentative deal has been announced details can be made public. Both sets of shareholders have to agree to the merger, and , as is clearly stated in the announcement RNS, documents will now be sent to all shareholders and they will have a chance to vote on accepting the deal or not.The RNS states that the documents will be sent out in May, but they will also be available online.
Mike in Horwich
06 Mar 2017
Re: Share certificates??? Does the S.L. EVER tell us shareholders what is happening. They cannot communicate detailed and useful information as a policy reaches maturity so I'd expect no info. from them on any merger or acquisition.
batteryman15
06 Mar 2017
Share certificates??? Does this merger mean that I will get one nice new share certificate to replace my original share certificate and all my old paper scrip dividend certs with a few shares here and there, all rolled into one?Will I own a different No of shares in the new company than I own now or will SL shares be 1 for 1 in the new company?As a shareholder I haven't really been told what is happening. Nothing through the post or anything???Anyone know?
LifeInPlastic
06 Mar 2017
SLAM! How about that?.......
pearlsasinger
06 Mar 2017
Re: BBC This morning 7.20 am It was the most un- convincing interview at takeover/mergertime that I have ever heard.It made me doubt the validity for the merger. and certainlydid not raise the image of AAM in my mind.(holder of SL.)
