dkok
09 Mar 2016
Re: Keeping the faith Hi DaveI agree re: NW, but maybe he thinks he has missed the big gains on the share (ie multi-bagging), or maybe he requires some dividend to be being paid to give some return covering the slightly lower growth capacity. Either way, I personally believe that SKP should reach the £5-£6 shareprice over the next 2/3 years and we may well be in the position of commencement of dividends within 12-18 months, depending on the BoD's strategy for the business, but potential turnover may well allow small dividends to commence.dkok
dave297
09 Mar 2016
Keeping the faith I have a large stake(for me ) which I have no plans on selling unless either the story changes or we are taken over.I am surprised that NW has not bought in here since The Transformation as we have a decent & varied portfolio,cash in the bank,no net gearing,exciting new products,several major global pharma partners & presumably our current Board are developing reputation in the industry for being conservative,honest & very efficient.I would have thought that the sum of our parts substantially exceeds our current SP giving the potential for our SP to increase strongly over the next 2/3 years.
dkok
09 Mar 2016
Re: Large Trades DaveThere were similar large tranches just over a week ago followed by an RNS from Standard Life reducing thier holding, which they have been doing for some time, so it could well be that they are just realising some gains and balancing thier overall portfolios as large institutions often do, particularly if they need to lock in gains for financial reporting and performance target deadlines.As there has been little volume otherwise, then either the MM's are confident to hold ten million pounds worth of shares running up to the results next week, or the shares are already on thier order book for someone else, and my money is on Woodford as he is looking for alternative pharma stocks at the moment.I cannot see the results being anything but positive, otherwise the board would have been negligent in thier recent statements on the company being ahead of expectations, and the positive outcome of the Pacira case with the FDA for Exparel, together with Pacira's quite aggressive approach to expanding the number of surgical/post surgical uses that it can be beneficially used for (and that was the big point of the FDA climb down), to me only means that Exparel is going to become a blockbuster. This has the implication of SKP achieving all of the agreed Exparel milestones over the next two to three years, plus the ongoing royalties, which alone will contribute to strong figures for SKP, and that is without Fluti sales or the other pipeline products.Keep the faith, I think there is a long way to go yet in the upswing of the SKP shareprice.GLTAdkok
dave297
08 Mar 2016
Large Trades Strange to see large sales by large IIs 1 week before Results which,based on the fairly recent trading update,& news from Pacira, are expected to be positive.I do not believe that they would be privy to info not in the public domain although there could be negative news in the industry about Fluti.I a still hope for the positive Results detailed in the update together with a very positive outlook statement & the expectation of the next milestone from Pacira.It would be interesting to know who is buying the shares being sold & perhaps we will soon find out.
MetalMuppet
08 Mar 2016
Re: Large Trades Again Results due next week I think, so maybe they know something already.
dkok
08 Mar 2016
Large Trades Again Looks like Standard Life are at it again? certainly an institutional investor reducing their holding, but someone must be looking to pick them up, perhaps Mr Woodford is coming on board?GLTAdkok
dave297
02 Mar 2016
Re: 2 Large Trades So now we know that Aviva have continued reducing their previously large stake-so I wonder who may have been buying the shares sold.They must have been sold to another II so it would be interesting to know who may be sitting on just under 3% & whether it may be significant.Woodford may have woken up to our potential & Mundipharm,Pacira,GSK & several others are aware of what has been achieved over the last couple of years, & , more significantly,what remains to be achieved.Our SP remained firm which is clearly positive
dave297
29 Feb 2016
Re: 2 Large Trades Volume here is usually fairly low & it must be very unlikely that these transactions were bought/ sold in the market in the normal way & the MMs wont be holding them.It would be interesting to discover who has bought almost 1% of SKP today-although we may never know.Clearly the MMs arent getting too excited as our SP hasnt moved by much
dkok
29 Feb 2016
2 Large Trades A couple of large trades gone through for a touch over £1.5m each, so would guess that an institutional investor is either coming on board or departing/reducing their holding. Difficult to tell with the share price, as it could be delayed trades built up over a few days and reported now.If it an existing institutional investor reducing, then we should get an RNS sometime soon.GLTAdkok
dave297
28 Feb 2016
Re: Pacira Results I would be very happy if SKP doubled in 4 years as I have a decent stake &as tarted buying again the 40s.However it may not take 4 years for our sp to double as Exparel are expected to grow strongly,Fluiti should also grow strongly & we have our exciting new COPD products which we should know much more about in the next year or so.That ,of course ,is without any new products which we develope or buy in & my continuing dream of Mundi taking Fluti back to the FDA
dkok
27 Feb 2016
Re: Pacira Results Hi AmbiorixI understand what you are saying, but at the end of the day, if HBM are faced with a multi-bagged return via a takeover then what difference is that, to say waiting four years for the SKP value to double otherwise? At the end of the day they are not in SKP for altruistic purposes, they are there to make money, and I haven't come across many investment companies, particularly Swiss ones, who were averse to making a wedge no matter how it happens. A take-over of SKP would have no effect on thier Pacira holdings, perhaps they could just invest thier profits into there?dkok
Ambiorix1
27 Feb 2016
Re: Pacira Results Hello DK OK and other SKP followers,This is the actual portfolio of HBM Healthcare Investments (copied from their site) Fair value (CHF m) as at 30.9.2015 In % of net assets as at 30.9.2015SkyePharma 154.3 15.0Basilea Pharmaceutica 69.9 6.8Pacira Pharmaceuticals 44.0 4.3Advanced Accelerator Appl 41.2 4.1Ellipse 32.8 3.2Opthothech 30.8 3.0Paratek Pharmaceuticals 30.4 3.0Incyte 27.5 2.7Nabriva 34.1 3.4ZS Pharma 26.5 2.6 When looking at this, do you really think HBM would let go SKP so easily? I can be completely wrong on this one but I don’t think they would sell this success-story. The SKP-Pacira tandem is the main engine of HBM. Add to this, HBM has a lot of spare cash in the bank (and it is also paying a 5% dividend). What would they do with so much additional cash; return it to the shareholders? And then what to think about the fact that (Japanese) Astellas Pharma is one of the main shareholders of HBM (5 - 10%).I'm in no doubt the SP could go up nicely this year but IMO a takeover is not in the cards yet.Ambiorix.
dkok
26 Feb 2016
Re: Pacira Results Hi Daveits pronounced DK OK. I know pretty lame really, but it was 15 years ago when I set it up, and I was young and stupid. It actually is pretty much a play on my name.With regards to SKP I think we have a promising pipeline, and the potential of some potentially good increases in turnover for the next few years which should see the SP rise reasonably significantly from where we currently are, but I also think we have a strong chance of being taken out by a larger player, as I think the story of new SKP is becoming more compelling. GSK is potentially facing a generic asthma inhaler filing with the FDA in the USA which could challenge its main US asthma inhaler product which delivers it £3Billion a year turnover to it, and so the Fluti offering of SKP may well be in its sights. It already has a relationship with SKP because of the Breo Ellipta product, and so a take out of SKP by GSK would be partially paid for in not having to issue royalties on that product, whilst allowing them to go through the USA filing for Fluti, and subsequently a further new product to offer their existing customer base in the USA market.I may be barking up the wrong tree, but I am sure that GSK will be looking at the possibilities.GLTAdkok
dave297
26 Feb 2016
Re: Pacira Results Good to see you back DKOK,presumably pronounced "dekoh".I have remained loyal to the "new " SKP & increased my holdings further when our SP declined recently to about 320 & I now hold a decent number ( for me)It seems certain that we will received the £8mill milestone this year for Exparel sales exceeding $250mil & ,of course, the weakness of the £ should be good for us in respect of all $ received , although the opposite will prevail in respect of our exports of Fluti.Our new prospective products appear to be exciting & could fairly rapidly be monetised.There remains the holy grail of Fluti being resubmitted to the FDA.Mundipharm & their related parties are so influential in the US & know better than anyone how well Fluti is being received in the rest of The World that you would have thought they would be tempted to inject a few $mill to reformulate & re present to the FDA-unless they have a major competing product in the US market.I expect our results & the outlook statement to be positive & assuming no unexpected problems I hope that our SP will continue its ascent.
dkok
26 Feb 2016
Pacira Results & Progress After a nine/tenth month break I got back in here yesterday via a couple of 5k share trades as I think we are due some positive uplifts.Pacira announced their results yesterday which were broadly as they had advised and which showed good progress over the 2014 figures, even allowing for the impact that the FDA shenanigan's had had in holding back the figures slightly whilst agreements were reached.However, what is interesting from the Pacira results are their comments in relation to the studies on the use of Exparel for oral and maxillofacial surgery and their intention to market the product for this from Q3 '16, and the work they are doing for the its use in breast cancer.It is clear that Exparel is going to be a major drug treatment across multiple surgical/post surgical uses, which will give the potential for exponential growth in revenues for Pacira over the coming years, and thus increasing royalties and milestone payments for SKP. Happy Days.GLTA and good to be back.dkok
