Smurfit Kappa Group Live Discussion

Gamesinvestor1 13 Feb 2019

Venezuela [link] “”""The Irish paper and packaging firm’s 2018 pretax loss was EUR404 million, swinging from a EUR576 million profit the year before. This was a result of the deconsolidation of Smurfit’s business and operations in Venezuela. The government took control of Smurfit Kappa Carton de Venezuela in the third quarter of 2018, and made two arrests.""" “”"""On a pre-exceptional basis, Smurfit Kappa’s pretax profit was EUR938 million, up 56% from EUR601 million last year. Revenue was EUR8.95 billion, up 4.6% from EUR8.56 billion in 2017. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation totalled EUR1.58 billion, versus EUR1.27 billion the year before. Consensus was for EUR1.53 billion. The company declared a final dividend of 72.2 EUR cents per share, bringing the total for 2018 up 11% to 97.6 cents from from 87.6 cents in 2017.""" The 2nd part is obviously better - 11% hike in the divi. Games

elliottsilverman 01 Jun 2018

time is running out....

elliottsilverman 08 Mar 2018

One report y'day suggested SKG would be open to offers of €40+ ,,, hard to see Intl Paper upping their offer by that much especially if they had to make more of it in cash as opposed to shares ???

Stoater 07 Mar 2018

Re: We have become a akeover target You are probably right, I was happy to lock in my profit quickly as I had been getting frustrated with the gyrations of this share. No regrets as I made nice wee profit in a relatively short time frame.Good luck to you and well done for hanging in.If you ever needed a pretty obvious sign of insider dealing, I think the £1.22 rise the day before the official RNS should be ringing alarm bells!

dokp 07 Mar 2018

Re: We have become a akeover target I may be wrong but I can't see them giving up without coming back with at least one improved offer so I shall hold.

elliottsilverman 06 Mar 2018

Actually, another thing to take into account is that Intl. Paper, although its recent return-on-equity no. is decent (>20%) its return on capital is not great (5%) and according to a cursory analysis I just saw, it may be over-valued by as much as 40% based on discounted cashflow method of valuation. Therefore, it would be in its interests to use as much of its equity to pay for SKG as possible if it is that much over-valued. If correct, the share component should only be valued at 60% which brings the effective offer per share down to around €32.33. Maybe that is why SKG are so insistent that it is indeed, opportunistic...

elliottsilverman 06 Mar 2018

Sold about 25% of mine @ 34 as planning to hold SKG long-term but had target of around 33 to slice some off the top. Price is out in RNS this eve. from Intl. Paper who claim it amounts to €36.46 per share but only €22 of it is in cash and the rest in Intl. Paper shares...think it would be a lot more attractive with a larger cash component but still Smurfit board are facing it down... you would wonder what it would take for them to recommend... Obviously hostile approach from the tone of the Intl. Paper RNS. Either way, v. happy with getting €34 for a tranch of them and will buy back in if it drops back below €30 again in the event improved bid doesn't materialize... at least now we know what other people thing of SKG's potential/valuation.

Stoater 06 Mar 2018

Re: We have become a akeover target I sold as well and may go back in if it drops enough. Today's rise was in excess of what I was looking for as medium term exit....very happy with this.

DIE HARD 1 06 Mar 2018

Re: We have become a akeover target sold at 3062, bird in the hand, may by back if they go below 3000

elliottsilverman 06 Mar 2018

Excellent bounce today on news of bid $$$ ...fair play to DAVY - they have consistently said SKG was undervalued and price seems to have moved up to around where they said it should be on the bid news. Wonder what value the offer put on the shares???

Stoater 06 Mar 2018

We have become a akeover target Well at least one company has spotted the potential of Smurfit after tabling a takeover offer which has just been rejected by the board of directors.And yesterday one of the analysis companies raised the Smurfit share price target to £30 I wonder if they knew about the takeover bid before posting the upgrade?Smurfit Kappa Group06 Mar 2018 0700Smurfit Kappa GrpPLCStatement re Rejection of Unsolicited and Highly Opportunistic ApproachSmurfit Kappa Group PLCNOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN, INTO OR FROM ANY JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OR REGULATIONS OF THAT JURISDICTION.Smurfit Kappa Group plc(?Smurfit Kappa? or the ?Group?)Rejection of Unsolicited and Highly Opportunistic ApproachSuperior Prospects as an Independent Business6 March, 2018 | Smurfit Kappa, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, announces that it has received an unsolicited proposal from International Paper Company (?International Paper?), headquartered in Memphis, USA, whereby International Paper would acquire Smurfit Kappa and Smurfit Kappa shareholders would receive a combination of cash and a minority holding in the combined business (the ?Proposal?).The Board of Smurfit Kappa has carefully considered the Proposal and believes it is in the best interests of the Group?s shareholders and other stakeholders to pursue its future as an independent company, operating as the European and Pan-American leader in paper-based packaging. Smurfit Kappa is a world leader in paper-based packaging with an established track record of consistently delivering strong and improving operating and financial performance.Smurfit Kappa recently announced record EBITDA for 2017 of ?1,240 million and a full year ROCE of 15% and the underlying positive trading conditions have continued into 2018. As part of its year end results, Smurfit Kappa announced an acceleration of its investment programme based on plans to improve its market position and strengthen its integrated model between 2018 and 2021.The Proposal fails entirely to reflect the Group?s strong growth prospects and attractive industry outlook.Smurfit Kappa is Europe?s largest producer of paper-based packaging. Europe contributed 75% of the Group?s annual earnings and, according to the Global Corrugated Forecast prepared by NOA PRISM for the International Corrugated Case Association (ICCA), European demand is forecast to grow at a CAGR of between 1.7% and 2.3% up to 2021.Factors contributing to strong, sustained European demand growth and the emergence of corrugated as a highly sustainable transport and merchandising medium include: the substitution of plastic with paper-based packaging; the significant growth in e-commerce; and growing demand from discount retailers for shelf ready packaging.Demand in Latin America, again according to the ICCA report, is projected to grow at a CAGR between 3.3% and 4.6% between 2017 and 2021.With its market leading positions across Europe and as the only major pan-regional producer in Latin America, Smurfit Kappa is uniquely positioned to capitalise upon projected industry growth.With significant growth opportunities, both organic and through acquisition, the Group has previously announced a range of increased medium-term performance targets including:an objective to invest an incremental ?1.6 billion to capitalise internal and external growth opportunities;a medium-term, increased ROCE target of 17%;a revised, lower target leverage range of 1.75-2.5x; and,a continuation of an attractive and progressive dividend stream.The Board, together with its advisers, has carefully evaluated the Proposal and believes it:is fundamentally opportunistic and conditional;in no way reflects the Group?s true intrinsic business worth or its short, medium or long-term prospects;would involve our shareholders receiving a high proportion of

Stoater 07 Feb 2018

Big swings today! Wow almost a £2 swing today at one point from being +£1 to down £1.Results show profits down on last year, but still a healthy profit!

elliottsilverman 07 Feb 2018

Results didn't seem quite as positive as DAVY were implying by talking up SKG the other day ... in hindsight, looks like a pre-emptive strike to counter some of the negative sentiment around the results announcement today ... that said, results seem steady enough despite some drop in the Americas, some of which must be -ve currency movements. Also, div increased so must be a bit over 3% annualized now. Seems more like a hold than a buy though around these levels...

Stoater 30 Jan 2018

Re: Not a good couple of days Share price seems to be doing a bit of yoyo-ing just now. Some positive reviews from analysts yesterday and a new contract from Poland has just come in.Smurfit are looking good to take advantage of current wish to recycle or compost packaging.

Stoater 25 Jan 2018

Not a good couple of days The share price has been pretty volatile in the last week with some big swings. Not a good day today, down 62p.I'm hoping all the bad press plastic products are receiving just now will give Smurfit a bit of a boost as they are in a fantastic position to capitalise.