churjones
09 Jul 2016
Re: I'm In Again You are correct on the warning,if your pessimistic about potential earnings, then this is not a buy. Statements already made and forecasts offered do not stand up as valid if you take into account share purchases by management, i have to ask myself would i buy shares if i did not have optimism in the back of my mind for the future ?.As to the earning yes i feel your correct, dividend it's well covered but like you i expect a cut, if as you say it is cut fully to 3p for the year, then that is still a yield of 4,2% which is chunky enough for me in these unstable times. Unstable times to me, does not mean forget about buying just be mindful and look a little more forward and deeper. regards
Boring Bernie
09 Jul 2016
Re: I'm In Again ChurThey've warned on Q4 and all of the next FY, not just Q1 of 16/17.Mind you, I do think St Ives will recover, and, long-term, buying at ~70p should be fine, but I'm more risk averse than normal at the moment !It was only back in Feb that about £13 million was raised via a placing at a bit North of two quid to help fund acquisitions. With cashflow likely to shrink something has to give. The divi is the obvious choice and I'd expect that to be slashed. If the divi for H2 this year is 3p or above then I'll be surprised.Hopefully the next trading update will be more positive on 2016/17. If it is, I'm likely to be joining you as a shareholder, all be it at a higher price than you're paying !
churjones
08 Jul 2016
Re: I'm In Again Bernie Management team has already stated earning will be impacted in the final quarter and first quarter 2017, Management have all bought shares which is always helpful for confidence, but as far as funding debt, from the figures detailed even in the worst times of 2008/9 they have always been able to pay there way and make money, margins are not particularly good but the company is, so much so that i have bought more today , even though others are not as positive as myself, but we all have an opinion good or bad regards
Boring Bernie
08 Jul 2016
Re: I'm In Again Year-end for St Ives is the end of this month so I'm expecting a trading update in early August at which point the outlook for FY 2016/17 should be clearer.My gut reaction is that there'll be more pain before there's an upturn, so I'm avoiding it until we've had another update from the company. I don't think it'll be needed, but the worst case scenario would be if the debt started to look out of control and needed a rights issue to repair the balance sheet
churjones
08 Jul 2016
Re: I'm In Again As long as they don't steal from me, i'll be happy ha ha !!. All your words form a good argument for buying, alas looking at the price today the opposite effect seems to be the norm, all my thoughts are based on a positive element for SIV, a good management team with a proven record of shareholder return, for me a buy and one i will buy again for a longer term element if the funds allow.
Courtier1
08 Jul 2016
Re: I'm In Again It's an enigma this one.On the one hand lots of director buys at between 100p and 126pOn the other hand stock dropped a further 30%+ since thenMarket seems to estimate 17p earnings for the year - if that is true then this is a steal.However, Brexit will have deferred more marketing campaigns in the UK at least so I am sceptical, Suspect earnings will be closer to 12p so dividend no more than 6p to be prudent and possibly only 4-5p.However, they do seem to be much more diversified globally over the last few years with much less reliance on UK. That should also mean that a number of sales will be in $ & € which should help a bit.Longer term their data and digital offerings should performThe debt is the bit that worries me more and I'd like to see this lower.
churjones
07 Jul 2016
I'm In Again Bought a second lot of these yesterday, Can't resist having a positive outlook, when everyone else is doom and gloom, how gloomy can it get for a company with 4 times dividend cover stashed away somewhere in the bowls of its accounts, and with a consistent dividend record going back to the start of the recession 2008, lets hope i'm right or i'll be feeling like one of the remainers from the referendum
churjones
29 Jun 2016
Re: Cut my losses. I said i would buy back in when the price was in the 90's left it to see where it would go,but bought in today, with the pound floundering, foreign assets and earnings will be important and SIV have them worldwide, of course negativity will prevail about Europe, but a diversified company and one that has transformed itself to suit world markets in digital rather than just paper will come out winning.
churjones
31 May 2016
Re: Cut my losses. I can understand your feelings,like anyone who feels the fall of a good share.This share has been down previously, but bounced well after 2008 as has been reported. I find it a good indicator of markets generally, in this instance i to would have sold already, which i did do in 2012, personally i have indulged in this share and seen the rewards, at present i feel it is right to follow caution but if it drops between 90p and 100 then it will be a good risk play based on earning per share and any reduced dividend policy. at present without a doubt a hold and await a larger fall to buy, i will dyor
fifi35
04 May 2016
Re: Cut my losses. Me too. Gutted. I have held this for quite a while and it was by far my best performing share.
Boring Bernie
03 May 2016
Re: Cut my losses. Probably wise.If the companies that St Ives have bought relatively recently perform reasonably, then, in the short to medium term, the ex-owners of the companies may well be due extra performance related payments ( share-based presumably ). If the rest of the business doesn't pick up then, although those share based payments won't effect adjusted profits / eps, they will show up in the official accounts, which is fine and dandy when there's a feelgood factor, but not so great when the sentiment has changed.One to avoid for the moment, but it's likely to be a good recovery play at some time in the future.
Misty Creamybib
03 May 2016
Cut my losses. I thought I would be able to trade this for a rebound is price; however it has become clear that the City number crunchers have given it further consideration and feel further re-rating down in required.Got out at 1.13 having bought at 1.2375 for a 'trading loss'.All a bit of a gamble on my part but I think the company is paying a heavy price for previous false dawns.No position now - Happy to watch and see where this falls to to. The chart doesn't offer much in the way of support!
Misty Creamybib
26 Apr 2016
Re: Pretty underwhelming Interims - Ouch My overall strategy is to hold about 20 long term stocks which have a low prospective P/E and chart indicators showing a bullish sentiment. Included within this are two property investments carefully chosen to avoid over exposure to London and different sectors.At the moment I am struggling to find candidates - It's true I have missed some great gains from the likes of Glencore but I feel they based on the information available they are heavily overpriced.In lieu of suitable candidates I can't resist a bit a speculation - 45% off on a profit warning in one day 6 weeks after interims appears very excessive. I really admire those who can buy and hold and resist such temptation!!May I suggest looking at GEMD, ARW, BXP, CRU and IPL as these are part of my less racy stocks which may suit your B&H strategy.
Boring Bernie
25 Apr 2016
Re: Pretty underwhelming Interims - Ouch I'm not a fan of profit warnimgs,so I sold out first thing Creamy.It may well bounce back, but trading on quick swings doesn't really do it for me, so I'll wait to see what the situation is when some real numbers turn up
Misty Creamybib
25 Apr 2016
Pretty underwhelming Interims - Ouch Re-raise or fold Boring Bernie?Statement seems to indicate prospects are flat with the potential for little profit next year.Having sold out at £2.20 - It doesn't scream buy to me - However I would expect from a trading perspective it may be worth punting for a rebound to nearer £1.50. Nearly £1.00 off looks very harsh but it only somes 6 weeks after the interims which doesn't look good.
