Disorder
27 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? "However, I don't always get it right, but on a percentage basis, I do OK, For every five companies I think will crash, three see falls in their share price, one will go bust, but the remaining one will see their share price double. I see St Ives as a 60 percenter. "I see what we are dealing with.You can read and understand the accounts. Great.You like to pass comment on shares you dont hold and offer advise to people to sell.You have a mathematical equation you use to determine percentages against success vs failure.With a mathematical equation which detrmines success vs failure to such a clear % point you really should win 100% of the time.I am with ALL the ANALysts that have issued targets.I see this stock as oversold and underpriced.I believe the board have been honest (Unlike you who think they are lying).bad news (And more) is factored into the sp and no upside or positivity has been given to the factors put in place to arrest the decline.All signs are that they will also be paying their divi.
numberbiter
26 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? NK, All I am suggesting is that the numbers do not correlate with the targets the directors have set themselves. In their last full year accounts cash inflow from operating income hardly covered the dividend payment and after normal levels of investment debt increased significantly.Since then the directors issued a profit's warning suggesting things would get worse. They then say that they will reduce debt, but in my view the only way they could achieve this is by slashing the dividend (which they don't mention). But if they slash the dividend the share price will fall. So this does not seem to be an option. In other words, I cannot see it!
numberbiter
26 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? Dear Disorder my credentials are that I can read published accounts. No, I have no holding in St Ives and never have had. I only invest in companies that make a profit, generate lots of cash and have either no, or very little, debt. St Ives fails on all three counts.I have over twenty years investment experience and have beaten the FTSE 100 in 17 out of the last 20 years,If I own shares in a company that suddenly moves into a loss or suddenly takes on more debt than I would like I will sell half my holding, for the reasons already given,However, I don't always get it right, but on a percentage basis, I do OK, For every five companies I think will crash, three see falls in their share price, one will go bust, but the remaining one will see their share price double. I see St Ives as a 60 percenter.
nk1999
26 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? numberbiter,All good points. But the directors have already issued a profit warning that they will not meet the projections. So is there anything new since the profit warning (and the associated share price falls) that you have information on (as you indicate there will be another profit warning)?nk
Boring Bernie
26 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? DisorderRe "Yesterday we saw Delta announce they had increased their holding by over a Million shares."No, no we didn't. They increased their holding by ~557,000. To be fair, you did say you got confused with figures.Also, today, RWC decreased their holding by ~625,000. Which one was right to increase or decrease ? Only time will tell.St Ives may well recover, and you could do nicely with your buy at 78p. Equally, it could get worse, and we could see the sp below 50p. To be honest, it seems finely balanced as to which way it could go.I'm sure we all appreciate you passing on the advise of your CFO friend, but, to the readers of this board, you're just some bloke or woman on the internet, so you asking numberbiter, or anyone else, what their credentials are just sounds a tad silly.
Disorder
26 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? Thank you numberbiter.Indeed I am not an accountanat, and truth be told, i tend to get confused somewhat when indepth figures and especially "goodwill 
" and the likes are used...However, an extremelly good friend of mine is CFO (along with head of legal) of one of the top 20 globally listed companies in terms of Market value. I am very lucky I suppose in that I was able to ask him for his advise. Would you mind telling me your credentials?I assume they are better than that of the board of SIV, as you are able to dismiss them and in effect suggest they are wrong, and you are right?Yesterday we saw Delta announce they had increased their holding by over a Million shares.We also saw a revised ANALyst target, again of over £1So, whilst I thank you kindly for your advise on what you would do, I actually chose my own method and purchased a load more last week at 78p.PS: You said what you would do...What are you actually doing?Do you hold stock? Do you use CFD's and maybe short selling, or are you just providing your advise because you are right and everyone else is wrong?My Opinion = Strong Buy.I do hold shares and will benefit from an increasing sp.
numberbiter
25 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? Disorder, you say you are not an accountant, so I would like to give you some figures from the company's latest full year accounts, 2016 £8.3m loss, 2015, £8.7m loss. 2016 bank loan £92m,, 2015 bank loan £79m. 2016 cash inflow from operating activities £14.5m, dividends paid £10.9m.Since these figures were published, the Board has stated that their current results will be materially below previous expectations.Now, as you can see, before the latest profit's warning, cash inflow from operating activities just about covered the dividend and because the company needed to make some investments debt (as you can see above) actually went up.Given the company's 2016 result was bad and they now say things got worse, it is hard to see how the directors will manage to actually do what they hope to do.The company is in a mess and it is just about even money which way it will go. Under these circumstances my strategy would be to sell half my holdings at today's price. If the price recovers I have half my shares increasing in value; if they go down further it is not a complete disaster.As someone who has studied gambling, I can tell you that the quickest way to bankruptcy is to double up on a loser,
Boring Bernie
25 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? From the finals"Our balance sheet is sound and we have the necessary cashflow capabilities both to support our dividends and to reduce debt. Assuming no marked change to current market conditions, we are confident of making further strategic and financial progress during the current year."From the trading statement "The balance sheet remains sound and we have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and to further reduce debt."Although they havn't specifically aid they'll reduce or stop the divi, the lack of any text saying "to support our dividends" in the trading statement says to me, that it's under threat. In the short term, I can't see how they can keep paying the dividend without increasing debt ( or issuing more equity ).The sp has bounced from it's lows, so well done to those that have benefited from that, and, if when the results come out in early March it can be seen that the business has got back on track, then a rise in the sp from it's current position ( ~77p ) should be supportable, but, for the moment, I'm avoiding St IvesFAOD - I'm an ex-shareholder and currently hold no position in SIV.
Disorder
25 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? "You will be OK until the next 'profits' warning'."So you don't envisage them delivering on their statements?To further reduce debt.To deliver upon the group savings.To reap any rewards (or see outlook as delivering upon) the strategic investments they will prioritise.The rate of decline to further reduce.Further diversification of the client base to prove more resilience.New client wins to start paying dividends.(You know where im going.. )In effect am I right in saying you dont believe a single word that the board of SIV have said?I guess I am biased as I am a shareholder and a rising price will benefit me.Do you benefit from a falling price? (I ask out of interest to guagae motivation as to why you only see bad here)My Opinion = Strong Buy.Based upon my own understanding of the company (I am not an accountant, nor do I have access to all company records). But based on what I know and considering the law regards release of RNS and duty owed by the board, I conclude that at the current market price the stock offers what is in effect quite a massive potential profit in % terms.If the company pays the divident as ANALysts predict then it only serves to add to what a bargain this really is.
numberbiter
24 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? You will be OK until the next 'profits' warning'.
Disorder
24 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? Trade volume dropped like a brick.If we look at things on a minute by minute or day by day basis we could post akin to yours all day long.I could have started yesterday morning with "Nice 5% profit for people already", but of course that changed at 9am.What is your position? (Purely out of interest?)Mine is that I hold shares.If you are leveraged and short selling then clearly its in your interest to see them go down.If you hold no position then maybe its your ego that requires massaging in wishing to be proven correct?Having spent the weekend chatting to a CFO of a global entity, and asking him to look over results and figures for me, I am happy in my assumption that the sp has been oversley marked down.Whether I agree with current ANALyst targets of £1.55 and £1.85 is irrespective.What I do believe will result fairly soon is a couple of quick succesive days with reasonable gains added and £1 breached with ease.Its way to cheap... Way way to cheap.The warning was grim, that is undeniable, but contained within the warning was a few positives as well. However, the market makes money in a direction be it up or down, therefore it is not in its interest to consider both at the same time, but to concentrate on either bad, or good.Another few days and the talk will be of picking up bargains and SIV falling into that category.My Opinion = Strong BuyI am biased in that I hold stock.
numberbiter
23 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? Add more? Still going down! 72.75p and falling. 70p soon to be breached,
nk1999
20 Jan 2017
Re: Add more? Agree with your comments.Purchased my first ever St Ives just now at 73.7p.Now be prepared for a steep fall - LOL !nk
Disorder
20 Jan 2017
Add more? Yesterdays news was grim.But first half revenue falling by 2% warranting over a 40% drop.With ANALysts still pushing £1.55 and £1.85 target prices and stating they expect the dividend to hold one absolutely has to ask..Is this sell off overdone?I hold shares in SIV and today added further.I am therefore biased.My Opinion = Strong Buy
Disorder
20 Jan 2017
Nothing We Don't Know. St Ives has initiated further cost-reduction measures in its Marketing Activation segment, leading its share price to fall to a six-month low.McCleery said SP Group had undertaken a "strategic review" in response to shifts in the marketIn a trading statement issued prior to its half-year results, due in March, the company stated that due to the increased pressure on operating margins in the division, it had initiated the cost-reduction measures and that it expected to reap the benefits of these actions by the end of this financial year.While it expects the rate of revenue decline to have lessened (2% over the half-year period compared with 7% for the previous full year), it said pressure on operating margins had increased.The company said the ongoing decline was due to the division's heavy reliance on the grocery retail sector, which was also experiencing pressure.Mark McCleery, managing director of SP Group, part of St Ives' Marketing Activation arm, said: “SP Group has undertaken a strategic review in response to market changes, including the continued move from traditional to digital printing platforms.“This has resulted in a consolidation and reduction of workforce requirements, which is necessary in order to help us continue to be the UK’s leading provider of cost-effective point-of-sale solutions. St Ives PLC is committed to SP Group and our clients’ changing business needs.”McCleery went on to say that as part of an investment to support the re-shaping of operations, it had approved the installation of new capital equipment in SP’s Redditch facility “to ensure the ongoing delivery of customer service excellence”. At time of publishing it was not clear whether the other businesses within the Marketing Activiation arm – St Ives Management Services, Service Graphics and Tactical Solutions – would also be affected.Following the statement, St Ives' share price plummeted 39.7% overnight to 76.25p, its lowest level since July.St Ives board said that in light of pressures within the Marketing Activation segment, profits for the full financial year are expected to be “materially below” its previous expectations. It remains confident in the long-term strategy and growth opportunities to the group.In its Strategic Marketing segment, revenue is expected to be approximately 9% above the equivalent period last year. Excluding acquisitions, it would be roughly the same.The group said that revenue growth and operating margin had been impacted by a number of project cancellations and deferrals in Q4 of the previous financial year, but added that progress to replace cancelled work was "encouraging" although taking longer than previously anticipated.In its Clays books division, revenues are expected to be up 13% on the previous year, mainly due to strong pre-Christmas trading helped by two recently published JK Rowling novels.The group said in its full-year results last October that profits were “very much on track”, even after a £10.2m goodwill write-down at SP Group had led it to a £5.7m pre-tax loss for the year. At time of writing, St Ives' share price had fallen further to 75.8p.
