TheFamousGrouse
01 Jun 2018
Re: What To Do I'm out. Takeda share price not recovering and this could scupper the deal.
axolotl
30 May 2018
Re: What To Do To much or not to much, that is the question. Anyway selling can't be a bad idea unless it is. I hope that helps.
cudntpikmynose
30 May 2018
Re: What To Do just sold. to much going on.
KeithLeo
30 May 2018
What To Do The following view is from Seeking Alpha and does not make happy reading if the merger fails or indeed if it goes ahead! Does anyone know where we are at in terms of what is currently happening? Not sure whether to sell and take a loss and move on - any views welcome.SummaryTakeda's proposed merger with Shire will be the last in Shire's life, and possibly the worst in Shire's 20-plus M&A deals since inception.A massive success story for Shire turned sour when management overstretched the company in a mega dilutive merger.Takeda is likely to face a similar fate to Shire by elevating debt levels and surrendering shares to merge with Shire.Share prices of Shire and Shire-Takeda are likely heading in a downward direction for the medium-term.The recent observer might be tempted to think that the acceptance of the board of Shire, the Ireland-based, US-focused pharmaceutical group, of a bid by Japanese pharmaceutical company Takeda, is a fantastic achievement by Shire's board. Takeda is offering London-listed Shire GBP 49 per share, a 69% premium to the GBP 29 per share that Shire traded at just before the acquisition was announced. It is a fascinating achievement indeed for the board of Shire - but unfortunately not for the long-term shareholders of Shire.Shire is a group that was built on mergers and acquisitions in the rare diseases sphere. It has gone from humble beginnings to being a star in the global pharmaceutical sector. Until 2015, Shire was an innovative and cash-rich company, with organic revenue growth levels consistently in the high single digits and with high profitability - performance that was enviable by its peers in the pharmaceutical and biotech sector. It had managed to bridge the gap between being large and between actually making good money - a bridge many biotech companies never cross. It grew revenues by more than 40% between 2012 and 2015, and enjoyed a net cash position up until 2015.Shire's success was widely recognised in the pharmaceutical sector. In 2014, mega US pharmaceutical group Abbevie made a bid for Shire at GBP 53.19 per share, which was a 53% premium to its pre-announcement share price. The acquisition did not go through at the time, due to a change in US tax rules, but it resulted in a breaking fee of USD 1.64 billion paid by Abbvie to Shire, doubling Shire's net income for 2014, and leading to increased confidence in a massively cash-rich Shire. Shire's share price in the months after the failed acquisition reached GBP 55 per share - an all time high. Optimism was sky high.Then Shire's management lost their way. Following a relentless five-month pursuit in 2016, Shire paid USD 32bn for the takeover of Baxalta, a US biotech company that was spun off by larger group Baxter. The acquisition price represented a 37.5% premium over Baxalta's stock price before the former’s initial approach was made public. Shares in Shire fell more than 25% as a result of its pursuit of this deal. Instead of recognizing that shareholders overwhelmingly reject the deal, Shire's management continued with the Baxalta merger. The deal consisted of 40% cash and the rest in Shire stocks. This resulted in a significant dilution to existing shareholders of Shire, and turned Shire from a company with a strong positive cash position to one carrying a significant debt burden, and with a credit rating one notch above junk.The Baxalta acquisition represented a gamble by Flemming Ornskov, Shire’s chief executive, who had doggedly pursued his target of merging with Baxalta in the face of initial resistance from Baxalta and skepticism from his own shareholders. The gamble had failed, and led to an almost halving of the share price from a high of GBP 55 in 2014 to GBP 29 in 2018, just before the Takeda acquisition was announced. The 50% share price loss was a big corporate failure, turning a cash-rich, high growth and very promising business to an over leveraged and laggard business. Shire's bank debt to ope
Val U Search
24 May 2018
Fallng share price Don't understand the logic of the price drop over the last few days unless it is based on the possibility of Takeda shaeholders rejecting the offer.OK the Takeda share price has dropped about 3% since the offer was announced and given the variation in its share price over the last 12 months there is a potential further drop of about 8% to the 12 month low but also a potential rise of about 50% to the 12 month high.The currency is about mid range with a potential rise/fall of about 6%(not very significant)
Val U Search
24 May 2018
Fallng share price Don't understand the logic of teh rpice drop over teh last few days unless it is based on the possibility of Takeda shaeholders rejecting the offer.OK the Takeda share price has dropped about 3% since the offer was announced and given the vaiation in its share price over the last 12 months there is a potential further drop of about 8% to the 12 month low but a potential rise of about 50% to the 12 month high.The currency is about mid range with a potential rise/fall of about 6%
Val U Search
16 May 2018
Rising share price About 6% gain on the additional shares I bought last weekMore to come in the weeks ahead and on shareholder acceptance of the deal in particularStruggle to think of a better place to put my money (particularly given the typical general share price drop in the coming months and the Brexit nonsense)
nk1999
10 May 2018
Shore Capital From Citywire:"Shire-Takeda deal is ‘reasonable value’, says Shore Capital Shire (SHP) has made an agreement with pharma company peer Takeda on a £46 billion takeover offer, which Shore Capital says looks like ‘reasonable value’. Analyst Tara Raveendran retained her ‘buy’ recommendation on Shire after a deal was reached that sees each Shire shareholder receive $30.33 in cash plus shares in Takeda, worth a total of £49 a share. ‘The deal represents a 56.2% premium to Shire’s 30-day trading day volume-weighted average and values the group at £46 billion,’ said Raveendran. ‘Post deal close, Shire shareholders will own c.50% of the enlarged group.’The Shire directors will recommend the deal unanimously and the acquisition is expected to become effective in the first half of 2019 subject to shareholder approval. ‘While we acknowledge the consideration as including the part receipt of Takeda’s equity, given the absence of predictable catalysts over the next 12 months to close the fundamental valuation gap, we see the current proposal offer as offering reasonable value to shareholders over this timeframe, ‘ said Raveendran.Shire shares jumped 4.6%, or 178p, to £40.34, a discount to the offer."
Val U Search
09 May 2018
Re: Institutions holding Takeda I don't think Shire should need a lot of convincing.The cash offer component is c. 50% of the offer ie about 2400p per share.If the offer does not go ahead the Shire share price could well drop below the price prior to the bid speculation ie less than 3000pie Accepting the offer gives something like 100% profit relative to the offer failure cas
Val U Search
08 May 2018
Re: And still... No I mean 4% dividend on Takeda shares (if/when I wait until the potential Shire shareholder sell-off of Takeda shares following implementation of the deal has subsided)
TheFamousGrouse
08 May 2018
Re: Institutions holding Takeda Takeda’s chief executive, Christophe Weber, is heading to London next week to explain the deal to shareholders. It needs support from 75% of Shire shareholders and two-thirds of Takeda investors to succeed.-I think they need a lot of convincing
gamesinvestor
08 May 2018
Institutions holding Takeda despite the negative press, it appears that the main institutional investors in Takeda are holding their share and slightly increasing their holdings :-[link] at Olivetree, analysts addressed the concerns within the market that large Takeda shareholders are rebelling against management’s acquisition ambitions and voting with their feet, which some people have taken as a threat to any vote to approve the deal. But OIivetree said they saw "no evidence" of a wide-ranging shareholder rebellion."The data doesn’t support this...Outside of one holder, there has been very little activity at all amongst the large holders. In fact, this group has actually been a small net buyer, there are very few sellers indeed."While someone is selling the stock, an institutional group representing nearly 50% of Takeda has remained loyal and will be the investing community that Takeda "will most likely rely on to carry a shareholder vote", says Olivetree. "Even if we model a 66% voting hurdle, modelling a turnout of 75% (last year’s was c73%) sees this close to being cleared with just the support of this group."""Games -- Could see a recovery after this more +ve view
gamesinvestor
08 May 2018
Takeda On the Tokyo Stock Exchange this is the ticker symbol - 4502.TThe share price is up 3.99% today at 4638The low for 52 weeks was 4398 and the high was 6693It has some way to go to recover but I guess 4% is +ve on the day of the announcement.I guess Shire's shares are now predicated on the movements of 4502.T so worth watching over the coming days to see if the recovery is sustainable.Games
gamesinvestor
08 May 2018
Re: And still... "Meanwhile getting a 4% dividend"Who's giving you a 4% dividend Val U?It's certainly not Shire, yielding less than half a % and you won't see any Takeee shares until well into 2019.Might be as well to split the holding and hedge bets - half in Shire and half in something like BATS at 5.3% yield -- there is a risk that Takee never recovers from this.Then again I thought Softbank had blown it when they bought my ARM shares with a load of debt .Games
jaxonsax
08 May 2018
Re: And still... 4% divi ?? on shire? you sure?
