nk1999
03 Sep 2017
Re: Telegraph- Questor Found this summary:"Look past the uncertainty and buy Shire for its growth and takeover prospects:Chief Executives rarely enter the debate about the performance of their own share price. A bit like their pay package, the appropriate value is for someone else to decide. To imply that the market doesn’t understand the path a company is on is dangerous. If investors haven’t got the story, shouldn’t you be telling it better? It was a sign of frustration that Flemming Ørnskov, the Shire Boss, waded into this area over the summer. Although he said he did not comment on the share price because he was biased, he went and did it anyway. Growth, profitability, improving margin and the product pipeline: investors had yet to fully grasp how well the drugs giant was positioned. They still haven’t.When Ørnskov made the remarks, Shire shares were just north of £41. Since then the group with a £35 billion market value has posted second quarter results and the stock has carried on drifting. Chief among concerns is Shire’s digestion of Baxalta, a rare diseases firm that specialises inimmunology and treating blood disorder haemophilia, which it paid £25 billion for last year. The announced departure of finance Chief Jeff Poulton has not improved sentiment either. Ørnskov is driving Dublinbased Shire deeper into rare diseases, which are more resistant to pricing pressure and copycat competition that targets massmarket blockbusters created by the likes ofGlaxoSmithKline. Baxalta was a big bite for a company that had grown fast by acquiringa series of smaller rivals. Now it is undergoing a transformation aimed at developing more of its own drugs to drive top-line growth. That could take a while to bear fruit. In the meantime, the City has focused on the risks. The launch by Roche of a rival haemophilia drug has rattled some investors. For others, there is concern over Shire’s ability to pay down the debt it took on to seal the takeover. Pointing to early generic competition for gastrointestinal drug Lialda, the group trimmed its sales outlook but nudged up earnings per share guidance for the year. This was significant, pointed out analysts at Goldman Sachs, given there had been concerns in the market about a downgrade. The financials were reassuring. Shire has squeezed an extra $100 million (£77 million) of synergies in the first year after the Baxalta deal. During the quarter, it reduced borrowings by $880 million and says net debt – a chunky $21 billion – is ontrack to fall to less than three times underlying earnings by the end of the year.Ørnskov also unveiled a review of thedivision on which Shire was built. The group will decide by the year-end whether to spin off its nEuroscience arm, which treats attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The patent for its original key drug in this area, Adderall, expired in 2009, but Mydayis, a new once-a-day ADHD medication for adults, shows promise for the future. However, its biggest seller in this category, Vyvanse, is heading towards apatent cliff in 2023. Recent sales of the binge eating disorder treatment came in below City expectations. Goldman Sachs expects the division to contribute 18% of group sales this year and values it at up to $14 billion, or £12 per share at the top end.Berenberg is less bullish, suggesting $8.5 billion, although it points out a listing wouldinject cash to Shire’s balance sheet and help its debt reduction drive. Shire accepted a £32 billion bid in 2014 from rival AbbVie but the deal was called off when so-called inversion deals suffered a clampdown. Since Johnson & Johnson’s $30 billiontakeover of Swiss rare diseases firm Actelion in January, the breakneck pace of deals in the pharmaceuticals sector has paused for breath. But if Shire stock continues to languish it is not impossible that someone with deep pockets will pounce. Questor has been a fan of Shire,tipping the shares in April at £47.52.Ørnskov is not
nk1999
03 Sep 2017
Telegraph- Questor [link] Look past the uncertainty and buy Shire for its growth and takeover prospects James Ashton 2 September 2017 • 2
1pm Chief executives rarely enter the debate about the performance of their own share price. A bit like their pay package, the appropriate value is for someone else to decide. To imply that the market doesn’t understand the path a company is on is dangerous. If investors haven’t got the story, shouldn’t you be telling it better?It was a sign of frustration that Flemming Ørnskov, the Shire boss, waded into this area over the summer. Although he said he did not comment on the share price because he was biased, he went and did it anyway. Growth, profitability, improving margin and the product pipeline: investors had yet to fully grasp how well the drugs giant was positioned.They still haven’t. When Ørnskov made the remarks, Shire shares were just north of £41. Since then the group with a £35bn market value has posted second quarter results and the stock has carried on drifting. Chief among concerns......."Could someone with access post he full article?nk
Thedarkkn1ght
24 Aug 2017
P/E 9 (cheap enough!) .
pharmaspecialist
23 Aug 2017
Re: Not cheap enough Hello Eadwig, if you want a play on the ageing population then you might want to look at Convatec which is currently suffering from negative sentiment and post IPO hangover. Another way to play it is Dignity but I personally have avoided that one because I am concerned about the company's liabilities. A completely different approach is to invest in AIM stocks which enable you to reduce your inheritance tax liability. I am sure their popularity amongst the elderly is one reason why so many of the safer ones (such as James Halstead, Nichols, AB Dynamics, Abcam etc) are on such high ratings and as the population ages, perhaps they will become even more popular.
Eadwig
23 Aug 2017
What do Analysts think? 22/08/2017 Citigroup reaffirms BUY, set its price target at 6300p.11/08/2017 Barclays Capital today downgrades its investment rating on Shire PLC to equal weight (from overweight).07/08/2017 Jefferies International today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Shire PLC and cut its price target to 5250p (from 5600p).04/08/2017 Beaufort Securities today downgrades its investment rating to long term buy (from buy) and cut its price target to 4900p (from 6200p).I'm no wiser, to be honest. "downgrades its investment rating to long term buy"??
EssentialInvestor
23 Aug 2017
Re: Not cheap enough The best article on Shire I've read in a very long time was published on Seeking Alpha yesterday.Whether or not you agree with the author's conclusion,it provided a decent summation of the risks/opportunities, - just IMV.As always DYOR.
Eadwig
23 Aug 2017
Re: Not cheap enough dazurtrader,Thanks for responding. I certainly have no argument with your Shire price. I'm persuaded that there is potential growth here in the out years that the market will be prepared to pay a premium for, IF management execute well. If that happens and a growth premium starts to be put on the price I'll be selling at that point, before we ever see if the thesis plays out. I'll also try and trade the position so that I'm going forward with as low an average as possible (currently @3745 two tranches in). Delighted to find SHP has no stamp duty which makes that process much easier (I did own years ago, but don't remember there being no stamp duty then. Probably just forgotten, it was a long, long time ago).Good luck with the health care play. I've struggled very hard to find a way to play the ageing population thesis, especially in the UK. I do have an investment in a new REIT (LXi) which is aimed at commercial property and has a number of care homes in its mix already, but there was yet another warning from the industry on the news today that UK health care, for the aged especially, is approaching crisis levels - and I'm not arguing.I've been tempted to buy Walgreen-Boots but the fx rate is so bad right now that if I'm risking US stocks I want fast growth stocks (not a long-term thesis play) plus they've run into some difficulties recently - although that is an opportunity to get them below $80 perhaps if you are in for the long haul. I think they can only keep growing being the biggest chemist in the US and now in the UK (I assume Boots is).I've had your WWH Investment Trust on my watchlist for a while, but there's always been a reason to not go with it - sometimes just that I fancy something else more and I'm trying to keep a reasonable amount of cash on hand at the moment (15% minimum) for bargains when the next (overdue) correction comes. Its also not exactly what I'm looking for in terms of 'health care' - my idea of what that means anyway - I.e. a play on the ageing population. It has a bit too much general big pharma in it, and replicates many of my biotech holdings, so isn't the greatest fit for me. It also misses some obvious ones if they were aiming at health care for the elderly also.I spoke with someone else about WWH a while ago and they reckoned that it was the best I.T. for healthcare and is, of course, diversified globally. That means not going to suffer from the UK-specific doldrums that we have managed to create here (living wage, business rates, cost of land and premises, employment contract standards, lack of skilled medical staff etc etc). WWH hasn't yet been through a downturn though, which is often the best measure of a fund.I don't know anything about AMS or BVXP off hand, but I like the look of the returns to date, so I shall be making a note of them and looking into them.Good luck and thanks again for getting back to me.Eadwig
dazurtrader
22 Aug 2017
Re: Not cheap enough Eadwig,Your charts showing the general pharma decline indicates my shift to wider healthcare. Big Pharma seems to be increasingly hidebound by regulations in new drug approvals, price controls and SHP's rapid growth days seem behind it.I agree that UK Care homes are struggling but in a wider context I have now made four purchases of the WWH (World Wide Health) Investment Trust (+18% YTD plus small divi). I also have wound treatment company AMS (+48% YTD) and biotech/medical firm BVXP (+43% YTD).However the recent big falls in SHP's SP will see a reversal soon, but today's rise may not be the start. I'll stick with my view that 3500 or less would be a good purchase point as long as the charts show support.
Eadwig
22 Aug 2017
Re: Not cheap enough dazurtrader, "I'm reinvesting the cash in health care rather than pharma"What's your play, or plays, in health care? Its a very obvious thesis - especially care for the elderly, but it seems an awful hard business to make money in. I'd be interested to know if you've found a profitable niche.Eadwig
Eadwig
22 Aug 2017
Re: Who is selling Games,"CFO left"Its a proper managed departure though, not a sacking or 'leaving to spend more time with the garden'. It shouldn't have impacted the share price so strongly if the price was seen as robust.There's some other weakness here, possibly just sector weakness on future US price clampdowns, which are likely to hit Shire and rare disease drugs more than the big boys - although generics are going to be hit hard too, it seems.If they ever get their act together, that is.
dazurtrader
21 Aug 2017
More Views From The Charts Still heading down! No good signs as yet, but 3400 could be towards the bottom. Once below 3500 I'll be looking for a period of support and a turning up of the 25 and 50 day moving averages and buying back in. Thankfully sold out at 4200, so I have some margin for error to buy back and own more shares than before. Given the general weakness in the market, patience could be rewarded.
Proverbs 26 vs 5
21 Aug 2017
share price drop
ossible reason Shire21 Aug 2017 140:10Shire plcShire plc Director and Senior Management ChangesAugust 21, 2017 - Shire plc (LSE: SHP, NASDAQ: SHPG) ("Shire" or the "Company"
, announces changes to its Executive Committee, as it progresses its strategy to sharpen its focus as a leader in rare diseases. Jeff Poulton, Chief Financial Officer, will be leaving Shire at the end of the year to serve as CFO at Indigo Ag, Inc., a start-up company based in Boston that uses the plant microbiome to improve the productivity and sustainability of agriculture. The Board will commence a formal search for a successor and Jeff will continue to serve in his current role as this search progresses. During this transition period, Jeff will remain on the Executive Committee and on the Board of Directors of Shire plc. Jeff will also continue to support the Company's on-going strategic review of its business.Dr. Flemming Ornskov, MD, MPH, Chief Executive Officer, said: "It is with regret that we announce Jeff's upcoming departure. Having held numerous roles within the Company, Jeff has demonstrated steadfast commitment to Shire through a very intense period of activity and has made significant contributions to our organization. Jeff will continue to lead the Shire Finance team through the Q3 reporting period and to the end of the year, and will play an active role in the search for his successor. On behalf of all Shire employees, we are grateful to Jeff for his dedication and leadership and wish him the very best in his future endeavours." Jeff Poulton, Chief Financial Officer, said: "It has been a privilege to work for Shire and to have played a part in the exceptional growth story of such an inspirational company. It has been a difficult decision, but in departing Shire, I wanted to join a smaller organization where I can play a role in building a new company. As Shire finalizes the integration of Baxalta and focusses on paying down debt, this also presents a perfect time for me to begin this transition. I know I leave Shire well positioned to pursue its strategy and deliver value for shareholders, supported by a strong Finance team." Susan Kilsby, Chairman of the Board, said: "On behalf of the Board of Directors, I want to thank Jeff for his long tenure and unwavering dedication to Shire and our patients. While we will miss Jeff's positive spirit and professionalism, we understand his decision to start a new career. During Jeff's time at Shire he has travelled the globe, transformed the Finance department, and led the continued successful integration of Baxalta and many other acquisitions. We fully appreciate his contributions that have helped to make Shire a great organization."This notification is to satisfy the Company's obligations under LR 9.6.11R of the UK Listing Rules.The Company also announces that Joanne Cordeiro has been appointed Chief Human Resources Officer and a member of the Executive Committee, effective immediately. Joanne takes over the role held by Ginger Gregory. Joanne joined Shire in March 2011 and has been serving as Interim Head of Human Resources since March 2017. Before joining Shire, Joanne served in various Human Resources management and executive search roles at Teradyne Inc., Covansys Corporation (now a DXC Technology Company), Avid Technology, Inc., and Sybase Inc. (now an SAP company).In reference to Joanne's appointment, Dr. Ornskov said: "I have worked closely with Joanne over the past several years as we have transformed Shire into the global leader in the treatment of rare diseases. Joanne's dedication, skill, and expertise have been an invaluable resource in the successful integration of Baxalta into the Shire business. She is a trusted partner to the entire management team and a passionate supporter of our in-house talent and leadership development programs, which are crucial to our business."Joanne Cordeiro, Chief Human Resources Officer, said: "It is an honor t
gamesinvestor
21 Aug 2017
Re: Who is selling CFO leftGames
KeithLeo
21 Aug 2017
Who is selling Anyone got any idea which large shareholders/institutions continue to sell - down 20% since I bought?
dazurtrader
11 Aug 2017
Chartist View I sold a week ago and there have been further falls since, despite the good results and MF analysis.Moving averages are still pointing down and momentum is very low. On a chart basis I see further falls, so on a long term basis this still seems a good investment/takeover opportunity, but short term expect more pain.
