The White Rider
08 Jan 2018
Re: Business Update Don't understand the impact on sp, unless the market thinks that debt reduction isn't progressing fast enough? I sense a good buying opportunity here for some. Not for me though - I've committed as much as I want on this one.GLA
gamesinvestor
08 Jan 2018
Business Update [link] like this is a precursor to splitting the company into two :-"""Target Non GAAP Net Debt to EBITDA* ratio of less than 2.5x by end of 2018Dublin, Ireland - January 8, 2018 - Shire plc (LSE: SHP, NASDAQ: SHPG) ('Shire' or the 'Company'), continues to progress its strategy as the leading global biotech company focused on rare diseases. Shire expects continued revenue growth driven by a diverse portfolio of leading brands including those within its Immunology franchise, which grew 21% in the first three quarters of 2017 on a pro forma basis. In addition, Shire continues to have a promising late stage pipeline with fifteen programs currently in Phase 3. The Company projects total revenues to reach $17-18 billion by 2020. In August 2017, Shire announced that it was conducting a strategic review of its neuroscience business. Following the first stage of this review, the Board has concluded that the neuroscience business warrants additional focus and investment and that there is a strong business rationale for creating two distinct business divisions within Shire: a Rare Disease Division and a Neuroscience Division. Each division will benefit from sharper management focus, greater strategic clarity, and an increased ability to deploy resources to key growth priorities. The Board believes this will be an important first step in enabling both divisions to maximize mid- to long-term product sales, cash generation, and innovation."""Games
nk1999
22 Dec 2017
Jefferies From Citywire yesterday:"US tax reform could push forward Shire takeover, says Jefferies Takeover speculation pushed up Shire (SHP) on Tuesday and Jefferies believes US tax reforms could be the catalyst for a bid. Analyst David Steinberg retained his ‘buy’ recommendation on the shares, referencing reports US and European pharmaceutical names were circling Shire, whose shares recently fell to 15-month lows. He reduced his price target to £49, down from £52.50. The shares fell 23.5p to £38.95 yesterday.‘In our view, US tax reform legislation – which includes far lower US corporate tax rates and access to ex-US cash via repatriation – could drive a mergers and acquisitions reacceleration in the broader healthcare arena,’ said Steinberg. ‘This dynamic could potentially result in another bid for Shire… we have long had Shire on our “takeout” list. That said, we think the potential group of buyers to be very limited.’ "
lotcangorong
20 Dec 2017
Re: A clever ruse? Could be, but then you have to wonder where these people get their numbers from: Wed, 29th November 2017 - 11:40 Societe Generale today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Shire PLC (LON:SHP) and raised its price target to 8000p (from 7500p).
gamesinvestor
20 Dec 2017
A clever ruse? [link] has downgraded Shire to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 4,100p from 4,200p, saying the risk/reward is more balanced."""Perhaps Liberum are now aware of an imminent bid and want to drive the price down while they accumulate more stock?Games -- or is that just a wicked thought on my part?
gamesinvestor
20 Dec 2017
Bid Speculation "Is this the start of a dust storm?"lotcan -- I've been out and bought some goggles in preparation for it.I think the start has been triggered by this bid speculation.[link]
sound money
19 Dec 2017
Re: Why over 6% rise in SP today? Well it should be but who knows.The pipeline is so strong I have come to the conclusion it can only be about debt.The cash generation and high barriers to entry should provide a comfort blanket. As the debt falls the story will become compelling IMO.M
lotcangorong
19 Dec 2017
Re: Why over 6% rise in SP today? Is this the start of a dust storm?
gamesinvestor
22 Nov 2017
Re: Why over 6% rise in SP today? "When the market starts to focus on that and not the debt you wont see this for dust."I'd like to see some dust as this is my second biggest holding.Games
lotcangorong
17 Nov 2017
Re: Why over 6% rise in SP today? Hope you're right about not seeing it for dust, SM, just bought a shedload
sound money
16 Nov 2017
Re: Why over 6% rise in SP today? It could have something to do with the fact that this is heavily oversold.This is a growth story with a credible pipeline. It's also generating plenty of cash. When the market starts to focus on that and not the debt you wont see this for dust.M
danshelton
16 Nov 2017
Re: Why over 6% rise in SP today? Probably to do with this (a couple of days ago): "CHMP Recommends Hemophilia A Drug ADYNOVI For EU Marketing Authorization"[link]
Rhigos
16 Nov 2017
Why over 6% rise in SP today? Does not appear to be any new broker upgrades, no RNS so why big jump today, not that I'm complaining, about time SP went North.
lotcangorong
15 Nov 2017
Re: Telegraph- Questor I must say this is looking tempting in view of the fact that the stock is now about 1200 below Questor's last tipping price and recent broker comments: The valuation of pharmaceutical group Shire (SHP) is still attractive despite overhanging concerns around its haematology division, says Berenberg.Analyst Klara Fernandes retained her ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price from £59 to £60 after third quarter results that reported ‘mixed product sales coupled with good cost control and earnings 3% ahead of consensus’. The shares were up 23.5p at £37.47 yesterday.She also noted the outcome of ‘a manufacturing network review that uncovered cost synergies of $100 million [£76 million] in 2019, increasing to $300 million in 2023’.‘Shire has been one of the stocks most under pressure in our covered as overhangs around haematology have created uncertainty,’ she said.‘We expect data from phase III Haven [a haemophilia drug trial] before the end of the year and believe that this could act as a clearing event. Furthermore, we expect the outcome of the neuroscience review before the end of the year to clarify deleveraging plans and capital allocation from 2018 onwards.’15/11/17Liberum has upgraded pharmaceutical group Shire (SHP) after falls in the share price that has made the company ‘too cheap’.Analyst Roger Franklin upgraded his recommendation from ‘hold’ to ‘buy’ with a target price of £42. The roses rose 2.1% to £35.73 yesterday.Franklin was upbeat about the prospects for Shire’s haemophilia drug trials, with haemophilia worth £8 a share, he said.‘Shire is down 21% since we downgraded the name on 1 June,’ he said. ‘We have resisted upgrading it twice since then as we were insufficiently excited by the valuation for a stock with limited near term pipeline catalysts and the double overhangs of haemophilia and M&A.‘However, with the stock now below £35.00, we believe almost the entire value of haemophilia has been discounted from the shares.’
nk1999
13 Nov 2017
HL view [link] few years ago, Anglo-Irish group Shire was facing a problem. While sales of blockbuster ADHD treatment Vyvanse were still growing, the question of what happened when the patent finally expired was a pressing one.For answers, management focused their search on deal-making. Initially, it looked like Shire itself would be a target, but a proposed tie-up with American giant AbbVie fell through. This led Shire to put the boot on the other foot. The first step was the $5.2bn acquisition of NPS, which was swiftly followed by the $32bn Baxalta deal. At current exchange rates, the sum of these two price tags equates to around 85% of the current market cap, showing how crucial the successful integration of these rare disease specialists is for Shire. While a niche focus should help Shire avoid some of the intense competition in the sector, Baxalta was also at the other end of the development spectrum at the time of the deal. With numerous products either recently launched or in the latter stages of development, revenue growth should be impressive in the next few years. The early signs have been promising. Cost saving synergies are now set to exceed $700m a year, comfortably ahead of the original $500m+ guidance. All the while, profits have risen handsomely. However, the cloud hanging over the group is the debt it took on to finance the deals. Despite falling $2.1bn so far this year, Shire’s net debt position is still over $20bn. This means that analysts expect the group’s dividend to remain at token levels for now.Limited near-term dividend prospects, plus the ongoing task of integrating Baxalta mean the shares trade on the lowest rating of the three, at 9.1 times expected earnings. "
