Re: NEW ARTICLE: Chart of the week: Favourit... I read the article very carefully.Apart from general stuff about the overall market having gone up, and that therefore it will come back down again at some point, and general stuff showing how clever the writer is about interpreting patterns in charts, what the article seems to say about Sage specifically is that it might go up, or it might go down, but that it might stay the same for a while.LM
NEW ARTICLE: Chart of the week: Favourite share sends warning "A lesson in trading from SageLSE:SGE:Sage has been one of my favourite shares and now the chart pattern could be sending a warning that what happened to this share could also take place in the general market as measured by the FTSE 100. It is ..."[link]
Re: Xero user base Hi GI, your link referred to an article from April 2016 and compared Sage 50 with Xero.In the meantime Sage have upped their game with SageOne which is also cloud based.Here is a more recent comparison:-[link]
Xero user base [link] to this, and I can't substantiate it's accuracy, Zero has almost caught up with Sage and is set to outstrip it.It looks like an uncomfortable investment, if there is any credence to this article.Games
Sage v Xero [link] Xero a serious contender to Sage?Games
Some numbers Looking at some of the numbers over the last 5 years, I wonder if anyone here can explain the risks associated with them :-From September 2012 to September 2016 respectively :-Revenue rose from £1.34Bn to £1.57Bn - a rise of 17%during that time the pre-tax profit has fallen from £344M to £300M -- a fall 13%now the scary part :-The borrowings have jumped from £200M to £534M - a rise of 167%OK it's still less than 2 years profits so deemed comfortable, but what has happened to all that money? -- It certainly hasn't increased profits.operating cash flow has remained fairly constant over the 5 year period, but last year (to Sep16) the figures changed dramatically :-Operating Cash Flow £284MNet Cash Flow from investing activities (£45M)Net Cash Flow from financing activities (£278M) - this is a big negative number ????Resulting in a net cash outflow of (£39M)Perhaps others here have some explanations or can shed some light on this,In essence the business does not appear to have grown profitability in the face of rising revenue and borrowings. The dividend grew by 40% though.Games
Sage users Are there any on this board who can vouch for the software's performance?I guess I asked back in June last year - this was the content, but no response so far :-"""Any views on threats from Xero or other software packages (Quickbooks etc). Having read a few forums, it appears most users complain bitterly that the Sage software support is almost non-existent or of such poor quality, it seems that way. They also seem to be laughing at the concept of Sage Live (or Life) as an online solution, since non of their existing packages allow data transfer and there is a very big concern about Sage's lax approach to security of passwords. Vital I guess for a cloud based solution.Many of the obviously disgruntled users comment that the only two things Sage are good at is marketing and billing -- harsh I suppose and possibly a minority - I don't know.Any users here that can comment on these observations (I must stress, not my own views)."""Games
Re: BBC reports A data breach at Sage "" Dido Harding CEO of TalkTalk was embarrassingly inept in handling the reporting their data breach incident last year - but long-term damage has been minimal and the share price recovered.""M - maybe it just takes time for the impact to be registered. TalkTalk shares are languishing at their lows now - 153p against a high of 272 - a 44% drop.This drop may be for other reasons, but if not, the impact on Sage could be telling.Sage is now down from 756 to 599 -- a drop of 19%Games
Sage has hit its numbers again Sage has hit its numbers again with this excellent set of results (full year to 30 Sept 16), the published highlights being: Achieved organic revenue growth of 6.1% (FY15: 6.0%) and the fastest rate of recurring revenue growth for a decade of 10.4% (FY15: 9.0%); Software subscription growth of 32.3% (FY15: 28.9%), in line with the planned transition and planned decline in SSRS revenue of 8.5% (FY15: decline of 0.7%); Customers embracing closer subscription relationships with 46% increase in software subscription contracts to just over one million (FY15: 690,000) and an increase in retention rates to 86% (FY15: 84%); Accelerating revenue growth in Europe, Africa and Brazil; slower performance in Asia (one off regulatory change in the prior year); growth in North America consistent with last year; Underlying cash conversion at 100%, supporting free cash flow of £254m and the 8% increase in full year dividend to 14.15p.Sage is managing to maintain its performance whilst undertaking a major transformation: >> Firstly, the conversion to Software-as-a-Service (SAAS) subscription pricing is continuing; and >> Secondly, the new strategy for growth is reshaping the business quite dramatically. SAAS pricing: Is very beneficial, customers like it and if fosters increased loyalty/reduces churn but at the cost of a short/medium term hit to revenue recognition. About 70% of revenue is now recurring and the growth rate is accelerating: 2013 6%, 2014 7%, 2015 9%, 2016 - 10.4% So, at some point and it cannot be too far off this will drive up sales from its current 6% organic growth rate.New growth strategy: CEO Stephen Kelly is making dramatic changes in pursuit of sales growth with 72% of the top leadership changed in the year. In Sales and Marketing, 300 staff left and 200 recruited with new skills in digital marketing. The new strategy is a move away from being federated countryspecific with many products to fewer global cloud-based products aimed at specific market segments Start-up, Scale-up and Enterprise. The new entry-level mobile and revamped cloud-based products look attractive. To support this fewer regional language-specific centers will cover the globe. The cost savings generated, £51m p.a. so far, will be ploughed back into marketing and sales to target new customer acquisition. My opinion: I like Sages existing attributes it has a strong economic moat, reflected in attractive margins and excellent cash conversion. It is the only global player in the SME accounting product market and so has the knowledge and expertise to cater to local tax compliance requirements. The new growth strategy makes sense with a new focus on start-ups and the opportunity to dominate this niche globally. Whilst, its still early days and it is not yet reflected in the top-line numbers there is enough in these results to suggest that the new strategy is beginning to work. Regards Maddox
NEW ARTICLE: Chart of the week: A blue-chip trade develops "Today's Italian referendum 'No' result was greeted negatively by early markets, as was widely expected. As I write, stockmarkets are recovering from these early setbacks.When short-term trading, I like to observe the action over the following day ..."[link]
£ may spur take over interest? Long mooted but if ever there was a time for an overseas bid this must be it.
Tipped by Questor in the Telegraph The first in a series of shares recommended by Questor features SageWelcome to the first of Questors new Wednesday columns, in which our share selections are prompted by where the professional investors we most admire are putting their clients savings. But the follow the money idea goes further than merely aping the investment decisions of some prominent portfolio managers. Read our introduction to the revamped Questor column hereThe professionals whose actions we believe are most worthy of private investors attention are those who invest their own money in the funds they run and in the asset management firms they work for. This gives them the best possible incentive for making decisions that will enrich their clients.Many fund managers, unfortunately, are more motivated to make their funds as large as possible, as their employers income is normally a percentage of fund value. There is a final element to the follow the money method: we will be particularly inclined to invest in companies whose directors have large shareholdings.Many of the portfolio managers we respect share a similar approach to investing, which is broadly along the lines of Warren Buffetts. They are long-term holders of shares, and pay great attention to the quality of the management teams concerned. They look for effective and sustainable barriers to competition Mr Buffetts famous economic moats. When it comes to financial performance, we follow the advice of those professionals who say the most important measures are return on capital, the ability to deliver profits in hard cash rather than as a notional figure that derives from complex accounting techniques, and low debt. The best growth comes from those companies that can produce these high cashflows from their assets and then reinvest that money in new assets at similar rates of return. Any business that can do this reliably over the long term will deliver a strong compounding effect and should reward shareholders handsomely.The only instance where such a company will not deliver for shareholders is when the shares were bought at too high a price. As a valuation yardstick, we will look at the much-loved price-earnings (p/e) ratio.Among the professional investors who focus on return on capital, cash generation and low debt are Terry Smith of Fundsmith, Nick Train of Lindsell Train, Sebastian Lyon of Troy Asset Management and Hugh Yarrow of Evenlode. Mr Smith founded Fundsmith and has a large stake in his flagship Fundsmith Equity fund, while Mr Train co-founded the firm he works for and has a multi-million-pound holding in the Finsbury Growth & Income investment trust, which he manages.Mr Lyon has a similarly large stake in his Personal Assets investment trust. The family of Hugh Yarrow, manager of the Evenlode Income fund, owns a large slice of the management company.All can therefore be said to have significant skin in the game and all four of the portfolios mentioned own a stake in todays tipped share, Sage Group.Sage share price graphThe software company has modest debts and good return on capital of 18pc (Mr Smith looks for figures in the mid-teens or higher). Cash conversion which reflects the firms ability to produce real profits unadulterated by accounting trickery is more than 100pc.The firm has a record of investing the money it produces in bolt-on acquisitions that allow the group to show decent growth profits on a per-share basis have grown by an average of 7pc over the past five years, according to Morningstar, the investment analyst, while the dividend has grown by 9.5pc annually over the same period.While Morningstar has rated Sages economic moat as narrow it pointed out that the companys brand is well-recognised throughout Europe . It added that Sage had created a great deal of trust in the small business community, with more than 50pc of sales generated by
Re: BBC reports A data breach at Sage Sage actually closed up on the day of their data breach report! Sage's share price has shown remarkable resilience closing up 0.5p after opening down 34p (4.6%) in response to news of their data breach. Clearly this is early days and there will undoubtedly be more detail to be revealed - and one would envisage that the sp would suffer a dip just in view of the uncertainty and potential reputational damage. But no, Mr Market has shrugged-off this incident and is priced Sage a tad higher than the previous close. I'm both astonished that there isn't a sp fall and as a holder very impressed.Regards, Maddox
Re: BBC reports A data breach at Sage There is a saying within the cyber security community 'that there are those businesses that have been hacked - and those that don't know that they have been hacked!' These announcements are unfortunately becoming a fact of business life, and destined to increase as mandatory reporting becomes the legal requirement.Whilst, the news that Sage have suffered an internal breach of security is very disappointing it is unlikely this will cause a material cost to the business. Dido Harding CEO of TalkTalk was embarrassingly inept in handling the reporting their data breach incident last year - but long-term damage has been minimal and the share price recovered.It will be interesting to watch how well Sage respond and manage the PR. It is these, what I call, 'acid test' moments that provide a great insight into how good the management team of a business is. A serious challenge such as this, if well handled, can reinforce confidence that you can trust them with your personal investment in their business.Regards, Maddox
BBC reports A data breach at Sage A data breach at large UK software company Sage may have compromised personal information for employees at 280 UK businesses, it is understood.Police are investigating the breach and Sage is probing the "unauthorised access" of data by someone using an "internal" company computer login.The information was accessed at some point over the past few weeks.It is unclear whether it was stolen from the FTSE-listed firm, or merely viewed. 'First priority'The company, which provides business software for accounting and payroll services to firms across 23 countries, says it is taking the breach extremely seriously.The police are investigating and the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), responsible for the enforcement of the Data Protection Act 1998, has been informed.Sage has notified those businesses whose data may have been accessed and has advised them to look out for any unusual activity.A Sage spokesperson said: "We are investigating unauthorised access to customer information using an internal login."We cannot comment further whilst we work with the authorities to investigate - but our customers remain our first priority and we are speaking directly with those affected."Sage was founded in 1981 and now has more than 13,000 employees around the world.The group has an annual turnover of £1.3bn, and is the only remaining technology stock on the FTSE 100.If the ICO decides that Sage has been negligent there are a number of actions it could take, including criminal prosecution, non-criminal enforcement, or undertaking an audit at the f