sound money
08 Feb 2017
Up Tick Does the markets positive reaction to Firsgroup's results indicate an inflection point in the transport sector?M
soi
20 Jan 2017
Re: I`m in/trade SB long @ 209.72.................This limit closed late yesterday afternoon @ 214.76.Had wanted + 10 but there is not much movement in the sp really.3 longs remain.ATB
soi
12 Jan 2017
Re: I`m in/trade 214.33 long add.4 positions in now.ATBsoi
Hardboy
11 Jan 2017
Re: I`m in/trade Soi "Earlier limit long was filled @ 216.44."I'd set my limit at 216 - Great Minds....
magoo100
11 Jan 2017
South again Can see this hitting £2 again soon
soi
11 Jan 2017
Re: I`m in/trade 213.23 long add.ATBsoi
soi
11 Jan 2017
Re: I`m in/trade Earlier limit long was filled @ 216.44.So 2 long positions in.Would go to 5.ATBsoi
soi
11 Jan 2017
I`m in/trade HiDecided to enter after having watched for a while.SB long @ 209.72 No stop, no limit, prepared to addATB & GL.soi
Johandesilva
06 Jan 2017
Re: BBC: UK car sales at record high in ... I presume we don't have access to segmentation report of customers?We have access to transport segmentation as a population:[link] this I am inclined to agree the growth of car sales is not that relevant due to the high amounts of coach users having no other choice.
Hardboy
05 Jan 2017
Re: BBC: UK car sales at record high in 2016 Probably more relevant on the Pendragon or Lookers site, but of interest. Thanks for sharing. I'm not sure it's a negative for Stagecoach - the more congested roads get the more the Government will encourage people to use public transport, and the more appealing public transport will be.
Johandesilva
05 Jan 2017
BBC: UK car sales at record high in 2016 I am not sure how relevant this is but I suspect it has for what I believe the forcible future, and I remain sceptical:UK car sales at record high in 2016[link]
Hardboy
04 Jan 2017
Re: Top 10 Stock Tips for 2017 Excellent response Bill. You obviously are on top of your shares' businesses. As you say they are generally defensive picks, which I think is good given the anticipated volatility upcoming. Personally I'm currently in more cash than I usually like to be. With markets at all time highs, and no real certainty of sustained global growth; I feel at some stage in the next few weeks pessimism will take over from the current euphoria. It's not unusual to see shares fall back in the New Year after a Santa rally. As for Stagecoach, we've seen a steady recovery since the interims, which is reassuring. I think of it almost like a utility, with the Government doing all it can to encourage the sector, and opportunities for overseas growth too.
Bill1703
04 Jan 2017
Re: Top 10 Stock Tips for 2017 " ... I don't think the UK economy is going to be growing much this year; and with continued low interest rates here and growing interest rates in the US, I suspect the £ will continue to weaken v the $; so I would probably look for more overseas earnings in the group of 10." HB - yes, I am a bit exposed here, I freely concede. And very happy to have IMB and VOD in there... BMS, too, as a bit of a special situation.I think it reflects my central-case expectation - that a pragmatic Brexit scenario will emerge, neither 'hard' nor 'soft'. And likewise, that USD/GBP at 1.22 already discounts the foreseeable likely realistic trajectory of US rates. But you are right, any further lurch down in either/both will mean this portfolio will struggle to perform - even if I am right and that risk/reward is still pretty favourable in a number of these stocks, even on fairly conservative macro assumptions.But as I admitted before, it also reflects my usual bias to value - most of these are "unloved" currently, for one or more reasons. I have said this is a portfolio which, at a minimum 15% discount to my 'fair value', could well do fine, even in an underwhelming market... but this is probably also a self-fulfilling hedge, insofar as if my stocks do indeed perform well, it probably means the market will struggling overall - for the inverse of all the reasons it did well in 2016. "And for the same reasons, personally I would stay clear of supermarkets. There are few sectors with as much fierce competition, and if imported goods begin to erode already thin margins; I don't see much growth in earnings." Overall, I agree with you - I can't get even close to the current TSCO valuation. But SBRY in interesting for a number of stock-specific reasons - now-very-strong FCF generation (appealing in itself, and for the consequent help to both EPS and balance sheet); the arguably under-appreciated synergies (cost and revenue) from the Argos (and Habitat) assimilation; the significant valuation disconnect which has opened up vs quoted peers (IME). Imported cost inflation should be less of an issue vs other retailers, and indeed vs some direct competitors... meanwhile, a little bit of general inflation shouldn't be a bad thing for these thin margins.The next earnings reported will indeed be down, most likely - I am hoping (betting?) that by the end of 2017, some of the above considerations have seen an improvement in at least one of market sentiment and the earnings profile going forward. But even then, SBRY only just scraped into my Top 10, and somewhat reluctantly... it was more compelling down around 215-220p back in the summer. Time will tell!
Hardboy
04 Jan 2017
Re: Top 10 Stock Tips for 2017 Hi Bill, Thanks for posting your thoughts. I wouldn't argue with any of those selections. I own shares in 3 of them, and in at least 3 main competitors of others; and 3 I know very little about.Where I would go away from it slightly is that I don't think the UK economy is going to be growing much this year; and with continued low interest rates here and growing interest rates in the US, I suspect the £ will continue to weaken v the $; so I would probably look for more overseas earnings in the group of 10. Apart from Imperial (I've got BAT) and to a lesser extent Vodafone; earnings are mainly domestic. And for the same reasons, personally I would stay clear of supermarkets. There are few sectors with as much fierce competition, and if imported goods begin to erode already thin margins; I don't see much growth in earnings. But good luck with that. The one certainty about this coming year is that there is going to be some volatility; as (in particular) political events unfold.
Bill1703
03 Jan 2017
Top 10 Stock Tips for 2017 Having perused a few of the usual annual newspaper stock tip lists, I thought I would amuse myself - if no-one else - on a cold day with my own, virtual selection.Same rules as the newspapers typically follow - equal weighted, valid for the whole year with no switching, and full owning-up at year end! Just hope to do better than the papers usually do... Bonmarche Braemar Shipping Servs Capita Card Factory Imperial Brands ITV Sainsbury (J) Stagecoach Vodafone WhitbreadObviously, some of these are more speculative than others. There is a vague attempt at balance and diversification across the list, though it's probably still a bit too exposed to the UK economy - and hence any further Brexit downturn. Probably inevitable, given my usual bias towards 'value' and aversion to buying into momentum.Talking my own book? Of course... would be strange if I wasn't, otherwise I'd have serious questions to ask of my own (real) portfolio. For full disclosure, I own seven of the 10 stocks, with the other three (CARD, WTB, CPI) all under active consideration - to varying extents.
