Small_Holding
15 Nov 2019
SDX - Where are the CEO interviews? On Thursday 24th October the share price closed at 22p. The next day the drilling campaign in Morocco was announced and since then the big news of the year South Disouq is producing gas. At the time of writing the share price has rocketed to 23p. In terms of promoting these two items of major news SDX have held an investor call. We are still waiting for any media interview by the new CEO to promote the company. As many of these are conducted over the phone he doesn’t even need to leave his office but still nothing. The Q3 2019 results will be released in the next couple of weeks but there will be nothing of note in them. The main bit of news will be how much cash in the bank they have left after the latest spending. I suspect these results will go out without any interviews taking place, so just how long after taking over as interim CEO and now the appointed CEO will investors have to wait to hear just one interview promoting the company?
Small_Holding
14 Nov 2019
SDX - Where are the CEO interviews? For months we have been told that bringing South Disouq online would be transformational for SDX. Two days ago came the big announcement by RNS that this milestone had been achieved. Following this sort of major news for the company you would expect the CEO or at least someone from the company to be giving interviews to the usual investment websites banging the drum about the company’s achievement. Paul Welch for all his faults would at least have done this. We now have a newly appointed CEO, so where is he and what media interviews has he done? Well as far as I can see a big fat zero. Then they wonder why nobody is interested in buying the share. I can’t believe that people in their position cannot see this is the best opportunity of 2019 to promote the company; it is this years major achievement for SDX Energy. You have to surmise that they don’t want to promote the company or raise awareness of the share. Surely this is exactly the moment to tell the market that they have delivered on this project.
Small_Holding
13 Nov 2019
SDX - Investor Call The Investor Call was recorded and should be uploaded I would have thought. I was going to write my recollection of it but many thanks to Harts on LSE I don’t have to, his report is far better than I would have done "Apologies only got half the call got cut off half way through and by the time I got back on the meeting had concluded. Here’s the extra info on top of what was stated in the RNS… Morocco Drilling Campaign 3 key objectives First 7 are lower risk, will be able to flow gas into customer base instantaneously, 2 wells in north are testing the same play as the south, objective is to test whether it does extend to the north. Further north Lalla Mimouna: 2 concessions that we have tested in the past but haven’t proved commerciality, drilling 3 deeper targets, larger in size and potential, testing deeper thermogenic play, could open up a new play. Further updates will be in the coming weeks and months Morocco Demand: 8 customers, 4 have been slower to take up demand, seeing a change now that they are speeding up their consumptions in particular Peugeot. The Atlantic Freezone is the largest driver of new customers on top of these 8. Peugeot factory will act as a magnet to fill up the other 2/3 of rental space, Peugeot is ramping up in 2020. South Disouq Revenue for November and December sales will be received in January from EGas and expectation is to ramp up to 50 MMscf/d in Q1. The wells and CPF are currently performing very well. Capacity is 60 Million for the CPF currently with throughput of 66 million, guidance is 50 to take into account that you don’t produce 364 days a year, can expand the CPF in the future by ordering parts. Won’t take as long due to knowing what needs to be ordered and the design. However can only expand output at SD through discovering and testing more wells in 2020 by exploring the lookalikes early 2020. My own take from this Shakey is that the pipeline can take much more than 50 million but our CPF is currently limited to 66 and our gas supply is limited to the 4 wells, so to get higher than 50 million a year we would have to 1) find more gas at SD and 2) Order extra equipment to increase CPF capacity. Apologies for not being able to ask questions I got cut off when someone was asking about condensate income, if anyone has any info that would be great." I was surprised only two of us asked questions but apparently Harts was cut off before he could speak. I found it very frustrating as I had loads of questions but finished early as I thought I was hogging the line. I wanted to ask about the decline of North West Gemsa especially as the September presentation gave a bleak picture and I wanted to ask if that was the worst case scenario or whether it was dependent on the oil price. Mark Reid came across well and seemed confident and competent which should be a positive for the future.
Ripley94
12 Nov 2019
SDX – M&A activity SDX… XXXX Just noticed i sliced the last tranche ( 53% deal lifted it appeasers ) on 24th September at 24p around today’s improved price .
Small_Holding
12 Nov 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable Investors Chronicle comment SDX Energy (SDX) has announced the beginning of production at the 55-per-cent-owned South Disouq gas project in Egypt, its company focus after failing to buy BP’s (BP.) Gulf of Suez assets last year. The company said the four discovery wells at the project had fed gas in to the central processing facility for the past three days. The production goal is 50 million standard cubic feet of gas (MMscf) per day, which SDX says it will reach in the first three months of 2020. The company’s shares are down a third from the start of the year at 23p. The last sentence sums it up.
Small_Holding
12 Nov 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable Fantastic at long last South Disouq is producing gas and as I predicted they have let it flow since 7th November to confirm flow rates. They have stuck to their timeline and not dissapointed the market which should go someway to restoring confidence in the company post Paul Welch. Mark Reid has been appointed the new CEO and I don’t think it is a surprise, after the the delay in appointing a new CEO many predicted he would get the job. I will delay judgement on this appointment until I see him giving interviews to the media and analysts. Hopefully today he will be busy doing that. The four wells are currently flowing at 24 MMscfe/d with a ramp up to the plateau rate of 50 MMscfe/d in Q1 2020. “All gas production will be sold to the Egyptian national gas company, EGAS, at a fixed price of US$2.85/Mcf, with the Government of Egypt’sentitlement share of gross production equating to approximately 51%.†I would expect a new presentation to be forthcoming but I will try and estimate revenues. Please feel free to challenge my calculations, I am no expert. US$2.85/Mcf x 24,000 = US$68,400 gross per day US$68,400 x 30 days per month = US$2,052,000 per month Less the Egyptian Governments share at 51% US$1,046,520 = US$1,005,480 That is shared between SDX at 55% and IPR at 45% US$1,005,480 x 55% = US$553,014 net per month to SDX Obviously the plateau rate is 50 MMscfe/d not the current 24 MMscfe/d, so that figure can be doubled once the CPF is operating at the plateau rate. From Q1 2020 South Disouq will be worth circa $1m net per month to SDX. If Paul Welch can be believed the pipeline will take 120 MMscfe/d so there is plenty to come if the 2020 drilling campaign is successful. At the time of writing the share price is up around 7%, I would hope as Mark Reid is now the CEO we will see at least one interview over the next couple of days.
Small_Holding
09 Nov 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable Small_Holding: “First Gas 1 week Sunday 10th Nov to 17th Nov 2019†Well here we are starting tomorrow this is the week SDX predicted South Disouq would start producing gas. I was genuinely confident they would deliver SD early, I thought after the wildly ambitious timelines given by Paul Welch that they would have given a timeline, including eight weeks contingency, that they could easily beat, it appears not. The market has been unimpressed by SDX so I hope we get the RNS this week. No investor here wants to see an update saying, we are close but not quite there yet. If the news comes we might actually get someone from the company to give an interview outlining the good news, it has been that long I cannot remember the last time I heard anyone from the company talking. I expected SD to be the news that would be the catalyst to re rate the share price to at least the 30p level, whether that happens now I am not so confident. The market generally is in a terrible state and if SDX announce the news as understatedly as they did the drilling campaign, who knows. We could have been getting regular news by now as each of the 12 wells were spud and then the results of each drill. Unfortunately SDX are going to keep it quiet until 3 or 4 wells have been drilled and then they may condescend to pass on the news, if they can be bothered.
Small_Holding
06 Nov 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable Last year the Q3 Financial and Operating results were released 26/11/2018. Assuming this years will be released around the same time, they are three weeks away. Before announcing South Disouq is producing gas, it is reasonable to assume they would want the gas to flow for a while to establish the flow rate and wait to see if there were any teething problems. The timeline said “First Gas 1 week Sunday 10th Nov to 17th Nov 2019†so is SD already producing gas?
Small_Holding
01 Nov 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable I have now written to SDX through [email protected] four times without reply or even an acknowledgement. It doesn’t inspire confidence when pretty much the only means of contacting the company appears to be a black hole. I would be interested if anyone else has contacted SDX recently and actually got a reply, whatever the query.
Small_Holding
26 Oct 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable The last South Disouq timeline had first gas to be produced w/c Sunday 10th November to Sunday 17th 2019. That timeline allowed eight weeks for contingencies. Tomorrow Sunday 27th October they will have used five weeks of their contingency. Assuming they are going to stick to that timeline, and we haven’t been told anything to the contrary, we should get the first gas RNS anytime in the next three weeks.
Small_Holding
25 Oct 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable If the share price recovered to around the 40p mark I would be far happier, I would still consider it to be cheap but this low price is very frustrating. I would also like the CEO position clarifying, appoint a new CEO or is Mr Reid going to take it as a permanent role. We need someone promoting the company and at the moment we haven’t got that. From the latest presentation Screenshot_2019-10-25 PowerPoint Presentation - SDX-Corporate-Presentation-September-2019-as-at-26 9 19 pdf.png763x75 6.5 KB That doesn’t look to me like we are going to get dividends anytime soon, so it is strange that our core shareholders do not seem to be particularly upset by the poor performance of the share price.
suicidal_tendencies
25 Oct 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable It seems to me Small_Holding that SDX aren’t concerned by the share price, and when I say SDX I am referring to the two large holders (Waha Capital - SDX SPV Ltd and Ingalls and Snyder). It’s very strange but given they aren’t selling and other large holders (including Ingalls) have increased their holdings I am not as concerned as I otherwise might be. It’s like they want to keep the share price low. I don’t really know why that would be though unless they are trying to sell the company and a cheaper price assists in doing so or because they want to buy even more shares at a later date. Given SDX are now solely listed on AIM, Waha etc are no longer constrained by the TSX takeover code whereby they could only own up 20% of shares before having to issue a mandatory takeover offer. on AIM they can hold up to 30%. I wonder if we’ll see the top two holders buy more shares in the future perhaps? It’s an odd company but I’ve been invested here since 40p in 2017 and I don’t intend to exit. The recent rock bottom share price has allowed me to buy many cheap shares so at some point I do expect to be handsomely rewarded.
Small_Holding
25 Oct 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable RNS - COMMENCEMENT OF DRILLING OPERATIONS IN MOROCCO This is good news but it now explains why my emails have been ignored by SDX. My suspicions have been confirmed in that they won’t notify the market by RNS as each well has been spud and then announce each individual result. The campaign is in three stages 7 appraisal wells, 2 step-out higher risk exploration wells and finally 3 higher risk exploration wells. After months of news starvation we could have have now had a six month spell with regular RNS’s announcing the spud and result of each well. Hopefully with good results that could boost the share price but SDX in their wisdom are doing what I feared. "SDX will update the market on the progress of the drilling campaign at the earlier of the completion of the first testing campaign, which will cover up to four of the first seven appraisal wells, or the issuance of the Company’s planned year end operational update in early January 2020. " So we have to wait for the completion of up to four wells or the year end operational update in early January 2020. Instead of 8 RNS’s we now get 1. Why are SDX doing this? Is it to save cash as each RNS costs money, are they not in the least bit interested in trying to boost the share price, is it because they have no new customers for any gas they find or are they deliberately holding back news so that Mr Reid can stay in the bunker and avoid all media contact as he seems to have done extremely well since taking over as interim CEO. Some investors may not be bothered by this approach but with their previous high hit rate of discoveries in Morocco I was hoping for a prolonged run of regular positive news updates to boost attention and gain the interest of new investors. Other companies would issue each and every RNS to raise the profile of the company, not SDX and that is why I suspected something and wrote to the company. They certainly have a knack of putting a negative spin on all good news
Small_Holding
24 Oct 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable The list of significant shareholders has been updated on the website. This shows that none of the major shareholders has reduced their holding, on the contrary a few have added. Previous holdings shown in brackets. Screenshot_2019-10-23 Significant Shareholders.jpg838x715 105 KB
Small_Holding
23 Oct 2019
SDX - South Disouq Predicted Timetable I am getting more and more frustrated with SDX The news flow is non existent, it is almost contempt for private investors. So bad is the news flow that I was worried that SDX would not announce the spudding of each well during the 12 well drilling campaign in Morocco. To that end I wrote to Mark Atelme on the 15/10/2019 "SDX are starting a 12 well drilling campaign in Morocco in Q4 2019. During previous drilling campaigns SDX have released an RNS announcing that each successive well has spud. Can you confirm that SDX will again announce by RNS as each well is spud? I only ask because SDX have gone painfully quiet since Mr Welch left and the latest presentation did show drilling beginning Q4 2019." I didn’t realise I was asking such a difficult question but obviously I was. Havng tried that avenue this Monday I copied my email to the SDX website email address [email protected]. I explained that Mark hadn’t replied and could they help At the time of typing the SDX investor team have not replied to either of my emails, not even an acknowledgement. Are these the actions of a company that wants to encourage new investors? You would think SDX pay Celicourt, why?
