Small_Holding
23 Nov 2019
SDX - Friday's Trades - Something is going on Theprior You ought to get out more but many thanks for your weekend support!!
Small_Holding
23 Nov 2019
SDX - Friday's Trades - Something is going on Yesterday 4.3m shares in SDX were traded and the share price didn’t move. So far in the month of November the value of shares traded in SDX is £191m Screenshot_2019-11-23%20SDX%20ENERGY%20share%20prices%20and%20trades%20(SDX)%20-%20London%20Stock%20Exchange|640x260 Yesterday alone the value of shares traded was £82m! Screenshot_2019-11-23%20SDX%20ENERGY%20share%20prices%20and%20trades%20(SDX)%20-%20London%20Stock%20Exchange(1)|640x260 Couple that with the media silence from the company following the two biggest events of the last 18 months (South Disouq and the drilling campaign in Morocco) and it isn’t hard to come to the conclusion that as Thunderclap Newman used to sing “There is something in the airâ€
Small_Holding
22 Nov 2019
SDX - Where are the CEO interviews? With the Q3 results announced today we now have had three big announcements from SDX in a short period. The commencement of a 12 well drilling campaign in Morocco. (25/10/2019) South Disouq online and producing gas (12/11/2019) The Q3 2019 Financial and Operational results (22/11/2019) All three announcements have been announced by RNS and have had absolutely zero effect on the share price. To promote these three big events neither our CEO nor any other spokesperson for SDX has taken part in even one promotional media interview. If any shareholder did believe that the management of SDX gave a damn about the lowly share price, surely this appalling lack of interest in promoting the company will have killed that off. In any year a company gets a few opportunities to bang the drum about the company’s achievements. In 2019 Q4 is that period for SDX. To just sit in their ivory towers and assume that just putting out the required reports is going to convince investors to part with their money is naive in the extreme. I hope investors remember this when the AGM comes round and the board suggests giving the CEO and senior management excessive shares under a performance related bonus scheme to ensure they remain incentivised. When we have seen our share price drop by a third and the management won’t get off their backsides and do anything to promote the company, I for one would be voting against any bonus being allocated. Almost 6 months in office and our CEO has STILL not condescended to give any media interview of any kind. Any future bonus share schemes should be related to share price performance only, if we suffer then so should they. This media silence over this crucial period convinces me more than anything else that there is something going on in the background to take this company private. The only other explanation would have to be they have no idea how to successfully promote a company and if that is the case they shouldn’t be in charge. This could end up being a long thread
Small_Holding
22 Nov 2019
SDX - Q3 2019 Financial and Operating results Some of the points I thought relevant from the results and presentation Q3 Results Gas sales in Morocco growing with 7 MMscf/d sales in September 2019 Trade and other receivables have been reduced to US$18.5 million as at 30 September 2019 Post-period end, the Company has collected a further US$5.3 million of trade receivables, of which US$4.2 million was collected from EGPC, and US$1.1 million was collected from third-party gas customers in Morocco. Discussions have begun with the EBRD to extend the tenor and availability of the US$10 million undrawn credit facility, the availability of which, as at 31 October 2019, has reduced to US$7.5 million in the line with the existing facility repayment schedule. (I expect this might be used to help fund the pipeline should gas be found in Lalla Mimouna) A capital reduction exercise was completed in June 2019 to improve the ability to pay dividends in the future when the Company deems it prudent to do so. (Don’t hold your breath) Morocco - Post period-end, the company spud the first well of a 12-well campaign. Presentation South Disouq - The prospect list for 2020 drilling was finalised and the initial phases of planning for the 2020 drilling campaign were started. The 2020 drilling campaign will consist of two firm wells at the Kafr El Sheikh and Abu Madi targets and one contingent well at the Cretaceous. The surface locations have been permitted and an environmental impact assessment study is being completed.SDX remains fully funded for all existing and planned activities. NW Gemsa becoming uneconomic in 2020 unless opex is reduced materially Significant production uplift expected in 2020 with South Disouq reaching plateau production rate of c.50MMscfe/d,offset by removal of NW Gemsa Low cost existing production base with opex at c.$11/boe2, expected to reduce materially with addition of South Disouq production So far no reaction whatsoever on the share price, the analysts will digest the latest report and give their verdict. I wanted to know the cash in the bank and at US$13m at the end of Q3 2019 that is better than expected. I can remember one analyst predicted they would have below US$10m at the year end, that isn’t going to happen now with South Disouq producing and ramp up happening quickly, things should improve revenue wise from hereon in. Will we see our CEO giving interviews about the latest results/presentation? we live in hope.
Small_Holding
22 Nov 2019
SDX - Corporate Presentation November 2019 New presentation on the website sdxenergy.com SDX-Corporate-Presentation-November-2019.pdf 3.04 MB
Small_Holding
22 Nov 2019
SDX - Q3 2019 Financial and Operating results Will have a good read and post later but first impressions, two bits of excellent news US$13m cash at the end of the period South Disouq ramped up from the initial 24 MMscfe/d to 35 MMscfe/d (about a 50% increase) in only two weeks. The plateau of 50 MMscfe/d should be reached far earlier than they predicted.
suicidal_tendencies
21 Nov 2019
SDX - Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline Just so you know SH, I am ShakeyPremis.
Small_Holding
21 Nov 2019
SDX – What has gone wrong with SDX Energy? Thanks for both your comments, keep them coming. SDX are a bit of a conundrum because they give the impression that retail investors are more of an annoyance. Not only do they release as little information as possible, they appear to go out of their way to suppress any positive news, as they have shown recently with the drilling campaign and South Disouq. For most of this year they have been painfully quiet and that has done nothing for the share price, you would now expect them to try something different but it appears not. AIM is a tough market and they have chosen it, if they want to attract retail investors they have to promote the company. If they don’t there are plenty of other CEO’s out there that do. As you rightly point out following the delist from TSX the two cornerstone investors could have added to their stakes up to the allowed 30%, they haven’t and if a takeover is planned you might have expected that. Do they just think this is a dog and won’t invest further? With the CEO of Waha Capital now a Non-Executive Director of SDX we might now see his influence on the company. Surely they cannot be happy about the transformational South Disouq coming online yet their investment is still down a third on the year. We did have the investor call and it was tape recorded. Why hasn’t it been uploaded to the website so that anyone who missed it can hear what was said? We haven’t heard anything to the contrary so we have to assume that the company strategy as stated on the website remains the same “Create value through high margin production growth†SDX also say they want “to grow through the acquisition of suitable high value asset opportunities in North Africa†This is when the share price really matters, with their policy of spending all the revenue on exploration, any acquisitions have to be financed by loans, equity raises, or a combination of the two. With such a low share price the number of shares that would need to be issued would be ridiculously high, effectively making the acquisition more expensive. This would also be the point when we would find out the views of the largest shareholders as they would need to take most of the shares, with little appetite from retail investors. This is a scenario that will happen at some point, I just hope it is some way off to give the share price time to recover. Q3 results will finally be out sometime in the next week and we can see how much cash we have left. We will get a new presentation after the results are announced. Hopefully with South Disouq producing the analysts will be invited to Egypt to see it for themselves and see the scope for expansion. If SDX find large amounts of gas in Lalla Mimouna and we are right that they would look to connect to the Maghreb-Europe pipeline then the last three wells of the campaign at LNB-2, LMS-2 and LGC-1 are the ones we are really interested in. I think currently the main drivers for SDX are Ramp up South Disouq as soon as possible Positive drill results at Lalla Mimouna Q1 2020 Positive drill results at South Disouq Q1 2020 Managing to keep production going at North West Gemsa as long as possible (that may depend on the oil price rising) Don’t make any acquisitions until the share price recovers As always, this time next year……………
johnlawsonmoorlandminerals2
20 Nov 2019
SDX – What has gone wrong with SDX Energy? Lawson 75, Hi, as a shareholder in this outfit I totally agree with your assessment of this company. The management seems to be clearly out of its depth or alternatively they are looking to keep their shares as low as possible. When I bought into this company I thought bearing in mind the shares were then about the same as Hurricane`s and since this company, was already producing gas it should be a sure fire winner but since that time it has gone down the pot luckily I did not add to my initial share purchase!
suicidal_tendencies
20 Nov 2019
SDX – What has gone wrong with SDX Energy? I am not amazed. It does seem they are trying to keep the price low or are simply just not bothered by the price. One thing regarding a cheap takeover. If they were going to do that why haven’t Waha bought more shares up to 30% (which they can do now having delisted from the TSX)? They did a private investor call recently after the news, which they didn’t have to do either. I think this company is just unknown to general AIM muppet investors. The larger shareholders have been slowly buying up stock in this company, as such the free float is now low.
Small_Holding
20 Nov 2019
SDX - Waha Capital On the day that we are informed that Amr Al Menhali has been appointed as Non-Executive Director of SDX, it seems a good time to look at their investment. In their 2018 year end report Waha shows a 19.5% holding in SDX with a carrying value of AED 66.3m. (around £14m) As of today Waha’s holding is now worth £9.2m or roughly AED 43.6m down a third on the year. Presumably Mr Amr Al Menhali is just as excited about that performance as the rest of us are.
Small_Holding
20 Nov 2019
SDX - Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline Doing a bit more digging I found this old map showing the Maghreb pipeline and I presume the other pipelines to the industrial area of Kenitra are the SDX pipelines Screenshot_2019-11-20 page_5 jpg (JPEG Image, 960 × 682 pixels).png960x682 392 KB
Small_Holding
19 Nov 2019
SDX - Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline Again thanks to shakeypremis on LSE [link] This article says that Morocco will take over ownership of the pipeline in 2021 and speculates that the Algerians may stop using this pipeline in favour of a direct one. Even more reason for the Moroccans to want to fill up the pipeline.
Small_Holding
19 Nov 2019
SDX - Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline Firstly, many thanks to shakeypremis on LSE who posted yesterday on this possible connection. I have posted before stating my concerns about SDX’s expansion in Morocco. Drilling 12 wells when they only have eight customers and all their hope seems to revolve around the Atlantic Free Zone being filled at a later date. An SDX presentation stated that this drilling campaign could “grow and transform SDX’s Moroccan business†At this point I should hold my hands up and say I didn’t appreciate how close the Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline was to Lalla Mimouna. It is the last three wells of the current drilling campaign which will target Lalla Mimouna North. This is the exploration drilling where SDX hope to find gas on a much larger scale than they have previously. The below shows the existing pipeline that carries gas from Algeria through Morocco to Spain and Portugal. It is this pipeline that Sound Energy, or the new buyer of their Moroccan assets intends to connect to. Screenshot_2019-11-19 Home - EMPL.png1009x1102 112 KB IF SDX made a significant discovery of gas in Lalla Mimouna it would be relatively straight forward for them to connect to this pipeline and sell the gas this way. The beauty being that this pipeline has been operational for years so they would only have to connect to it. I appreciate it is not going to be simple but the major problem, the export pipeline is already in place. Having the Moroccan Government as a 25% partner would also assist with getting the relevant permissions through. As this pipeline provides gas for two of their power stations I would think it is just what the Moroccan Government would want. Forgive my map below but using the reference points of Taz, Ouezzane and Tangier I have tried to overlay the pipeline on the map to show where Lalla Mimouna is in relation to the pipeline. pipeline.jpg1085x537 145 KB This could all just be conjecture but it does seem to fit the bill and it would explain their enthusiasm for Morocco. They can’t really say anything about it either until they have found gas in large volumes.
Small_Holding
16 Nov 2019
SDX – What has gone wrong with SDX Energy? SDX had and still has excellent fundamentals. They generate revenue from oil and gas assets in Moroccan and Egypt; they have no debt and have an undrawn debt facility if they should need it in Morocco. Everything was progressing well but the then CEO started over predicting future production and timelines. As a result the South Disouq project was put back again and again, with the share price crashing. Paul Welch, the previous CEO, was found to be wildly over optimistic with his timelines and predictions and he fell on his sword and resigned. The ex CFO Mark Reid took over as the interim CEO whilst a recruitment process to replace the CEO was undertaken. With the removal of PW and the lack of confidence in its leadership it was imperative that MR delivered on South Disouq on time and within budget. The market and investors had lost confidence in SDX. With a strategy of re investing revenues into the ground, no dividends, plus the cash in the bank sinking fast, the share price suffered. Everything hinged on the transformational South Disouq coming online. This has now happened but there has been an almost insignificant movement in the share price, despite the additional commencement of a 12 well drilling campaign in Morocco. Why is SDX still not seen as a good investment by potential investors? There was a loss of confidence in the company after Paul Welch, the ex CEO, was found to be making wild claims and giving timelines which it is obvious now were impossible to deliver. It takes time to restore confidence and eventually delivering South Disouq could have been the start of doing that. However the media silence will not help at all, it just gives the impression that nothing has changed. Malcy took SDX out of his bucket list partly because he said two analyst’s visits had been cancelled. Keeping the media and the analysts in the dark is not a good recipe for restoring confidence. Watering down the release of information on the current Moroccan drilling campaign, just means that SDX will not get the media coverage it did during the last campaign, during which the share price rose around 50%. Previously I didn’t believe the conspiracy theories about SDX doing everything in their power to suppress the share price in order to facilitate a cheap takeover of the company and take it private. The management’s latest actions however just serve to keep SDX off the radar of new investors and you have to ask yourself why would any credible CEO do that? Creating share holder value is supposed to be their primary objective and after a very quiet forgettable year for SDX, Q4 2019 was going to be the period when the company would announce to the market a string of positive news. In reality, South Disouq producing first gas has come and gone without a whimper and I suspect we probably won’t get drilling results from Morocco until next year now. The way this has been handled has now changed my opinion and I cannot think of any other reason why a company does not take every opportunity to promote the share unless they are deliberately trying to keep the share price depressed and the only obvious reason for doing that is to facilitate a cheap takeover of the company. By remaining silent it just increases speculation that this is what they have planned. To be fair to SDX, reading the boards, I seem to be the only investor who seems amazed by the fact that the biggest piece of news for SDX in probably the last two years goes by without even one media interview.
