Small_Holding
28 Nov 2019
Low volume and interest, but As you say painfully low volumes and you have to wonder what is going to generate interest. Clearly our CEO does not see media relations as part of his job description. In the short term a rapid ramp up of South Disouq would be very positive and might have an effect. I am glad you posted because I would like your views on the lack of updated broker notes since South Disouq and the Q3 figures. As far as I am aware Peel Hunt reiterated their 35p target on November 22nd but I have seen little else. For example Edison used to do regular updates but have done nothing since June. In that note they said Clearly their prediction of SDX having only $4.9m of net cash at the end of 2019 now seems to be completely wrong. With $13m at the end of Q3 it now seems they should end 2019 in better shape with more cash on hand. So why no update when they usually put them out every two months? Have you seen any updates anywhere? More positive broker notes might generate more serious investors to fancy SDX as a recovery play. I still don’t think we will get any drill results until the new year unfortunately
suicidal_tendencies
28 Nov 2019
Low volume and interest, but Volume has been terrible for months, it’s lower than it used to be over on the TSX when SDX was also listed there. There is next to zero what I call ‘mug-punter’ PI interest in SDX like you’d find in an awful AIM listed O&G stock such as UKOG (which has a significantly higher market cap than SDX I might add). Mug punters play an important role in liquidity and the share price and they just aren’t present in SDX. The free float here is small, the stock is tightly held by increasingly fewer hands. However, despite this pathetic volume, over the last week there seems to be a persistent bid and the price I am being quoted to sell my stock (all of it - which is not an insignificant amount) has been consistently rising, and now that price is 22.91p. Someone else with lots of money being allowed to accumulate shares on the cheap here? Quite possibly.
suicidal_tendencies
28 Nov 2019
SDX - The last CPR dated 31/12/2018 That last table shows that SDX definitely need further exploration success in South Disouq. Everything regarding SDX requires a caveat, but that could be a catalyst for a decent re-rate.
Small_Holding
28 Nov 2019
SDX - The last CPR dated 31/12/2018 Screenshot_2019-11-27 GetFile do.png854x472 30.5 KB
Small_Holding
28 Nov 2019
SDX - The last CPR dated 31/12/2018 I appreciate this is now an old document but it is the latest CPR. Not only does it give details on the assets of SDX it also gives details of the current drilling campaign prospects but also for South Disouq in Q1/Q2 2020. I am assuming many investors have not seen it, with 164 pages it is detailed but some of our more qualified investors might glean information from it. [link] If the link doesn’t work go to www.sedar.com and search under SDX for all documents in April 2019. The file you want is Screenshot_2019-11-28 Companies Search Results.png766x53 1.58 KB It gives the chance of success of some of the upcoming wells In Morocco the two medium risk wells BMK 1 - COS 50% OYF 2 - COS 72% The high risk speculative wells at Lalla Mimouna North LNB 2 - COS 35% I can’t see anything about the other two LMS 2 and LGC 1 but I preume they will be similar Egypt in 2020 Salah - COS 29% Sobhi COS 35% Young - This is a strange one as the CPR still talks about this as an oil prospect something SDX previously said. Now they seem to have dropped the oil interest and just show it as a gas prospect
Small_Holding
27 Nov 2019
SDX - Corporate Presentation November 2019 Slide 17 of the presentation “Valuation & Share Price Performance†It doesn’t actually say the company is undervalued, it lets the reader form their own opinion. I prefer the left hand table that shows an independent valuation of the proven and probable reserves at 31/12/2018 of US$94m. With a market cap of $61m less the cash on hand of $13 gives a net value of $48m In a perfect world, with no other baggage, it is clear to see that SDX is about 50% undervalued on its assets alone. However, this is SDX and there are other issues affecting the share price. The right hand side of the slide isn’t as good, it shows the correlation between the SDX share price, the AIM O&G Index and the Brent price. It is almost laughable that they have chosen to highlight the point where a small spike is shown “Half Year results and positive update on progress with South Disouq development†If we look at that spike more closely the share price spiked from its lowest ever price of 16.25p on August 19th to the dizzy heights of 24p on August 22nd, not only that but it fell sharply back to 19p straight afterward. Historically on the chart SDX did have had a correlation to the AIM Index and the Brent price but it doesn’t have a divine right to do that. Issues like the Paul Welch affair and the endless delays with South Disouq had an adverse effect. That is all hopefully in the past and the company should be moving on. Following the loss of confidence the company needs to do a few things. They have to draw a line under the Paul Welch period. Merely replacing PW with his understudy Mark Reid is not going to do that. Mark Reid served as the CFO under Paul Welch throughout the entire period he was giving false information. There will be the perception that nothing has changed. No matter how friendly MR and PW were he needs to tell the market that he is in charge, things have changed and the mistakes of the past will not be repeated. Bringing South Disouq through to production on time and on budget helps to do that. They had eight weeks contingency and they almost used it all, I put that down as achieved not over achieved. Missing the opportunity to tell the market then that things have changed at SDX was in my opinion a mistake. Having had a long period of expenditure they now need to start to build the cash balance in the bank. They can say they are generating multi millions in revenue but if they are spending it all, investors don’t like it. Establish a regular contact with the investment media and under declare/over achieve. It isn’t difficult, they have started with the South Disouq ramp up which they have said will plateau at 50MMscf/d in Q1 2020. After an 11MMscf/d ramp up already in two weeks, we might get the 50MMscf/d by Christmas. Keep investors informed of what is going on, use the Twitter feed many companies use it to good effect by posting pictures of say the drill rig arriving on site. They might not tell us the results of each drill (another mistake) but at least investors can see the drill campaign progressing. I would also like to see a photo gallery on the website showing regular updates of images from the drillig campaign, connecting wells, laying pipelines, analysts visits etc It is hardly rocket science as it only needs an employee with a mobile phone and the costs would be virtually nil but it keeps investors in the loop and not waiting endlessly for any update. Kill the takeover speculation, if it is nonsense say it is. During any media interview say there has been specualation of a takeover, as far as I am aware there is no strategy to take the company private. If nothing is said and no media interviews take place it just increases speculation.
suicidal_tendencies
27 Nov 2019
SDX - Waha Capital - average share purchase price 29.7p Well, Ingalls did increase their stake relatively recently so they can’t be too p*ssed off. I think there is some arrangement behind the scenes that stipulates that Waha will hold the most shares and Ingalls won’t exceed their number. Just speculation of course.
Small_Holding
26 Nov 2019
SDX - Waha Capital - average share purchase price 29.7p I was assuming Mr Raynes wasn’t tough enough on the other SDX management but whatever his reason for leaving, I can’t see Mr Menhali being impressed with the WAHA investment three years down the line. I hope he ensures that not all of the generated revenue is spent on exploration, having had a period of draining cash from the bank it would be good to see funds rising again. He could also ask what our CEO is doing to promote the company, considering it is one of the duties of a director. As I have said previously if SDX want to make an acquisition it is these two shareholders you would expect to make the big investment, given the last three years performance they may not be so keen to do so.
suicidal_tendencies
26 Nov 2019
SDX - Waha Capital - average share purchase price 29.7p Nice calculations. It’s important to note that Waha had another man on the board, their previous CEO Michael Raynes. He looks to have walked the plank at the same time as PW. It’s possible those two were deliberately misleading Waha.
Small_Holding
26 Nov 2019
SDX - Ingalls and Snyder - average share purchase price 26.6p Applying the same criteria to our second biggest shareholder 25th January 2017 Fundraising ($40m) 107,056,351 new shares issued Ingalls subscribed for 15,600,000 shares at 30p, following this fundraising Ingalls held 27,144,902 or 14.52% of the issued share capital. Therefore prior to the fundraising they held 11,544,902 shares. Following this Fundraise the issued share capital was 186,900,253 shares 6th September 2017 US$10m Fundraising. Ingalls subscribed for 3,500,000 shares at 43.75p Following this fundraising Ingalls held 33,847,714 shares or 16.55% of the share capital (Before this Fundraising they held 30,347,714 so between these two Fundraisings they acquired a further 3,202,812 shares) Following the US$10m Fundraising the issued share capital of SDX was 204,459,708 The issued share capital of SDX is now 204,723,041 and on the SDX website Ingalls now hold 18.91% of the issued share capital or 38,713,127 shares Between the September 2017 Fundraising and now they have acquired a further 4,865,413 shares. 11,544,902 x 18p = £2,078,082 (shares held prior to January 2017 Fundraising) 15,600,000 x 30p = £4,680,000 (25th January Fundraising) 3,202,812 x 30p = £960,843 3,500,000 x 43.75p = £1,531,250 (6th September 2017 Fundraising 4,865,413 x 22p = £1,070,390 (estimated price of these additional shares) Again I have had to estimate the purchase price for some of the shares but I have given a low estimate Total paid £10,320,565 divided by their shareholding 38,713,127 = 26.6p a share At today’s share price of 23p I estimate they are 15% down on their investment. This again just gives an idea of their break even price.
Small_Holding
26 Nov 2019
SDX - Waha Capital - average share purchase price 29.7p Like many LTH here I am significantly underwater and frustrated with my investment in SDX. Three and a half years ago they began trading on AIM with a closing price of 20.75p and today they are 23p With the appointment of the CEO of WAHA Capital as a Non Executive Director of SDX I am hoping there is some significance in this appointment. Are WAHA Capital as frustrated as the rest of us? In an attempt to gauge how their investment is performing I have attempted to calculate their average purchase price. Following the initial flotation the first mention of a Fundraise was a private placing at 18p in May 2016, I have taken this as their entry point for their initial purchase. They have then bought shares in a US$40m Fundraise in January 2017 and a US$10m Fundraise in September 2017. I have given a low estimated price for any additional shares purchased. Whilst my calculations won’t be exact they give a reasonably accurate idea of their break even point. 25th January 2017 Fundraising ($40m) 107,056,351 new shares issued WAHA subscribed for 15,419,437 shares at 30p, following this fundraising WAHA held 26,919,437 or 14.4% of the issued share capital. Therefore prior to the fundraising they held 11,500,000 shares. Following this Fundraise the SDX issued share capital was 186,900,253 shares 6th September 2017 US$10m Fundraising. WAHA subscribed for 9,832,366 shares at 43.75p Following this fundraising WAHA held 39,051,803 shares or 19.1% of the share capital. Before this Fundraising they held 29,219,437 so between these two Fundraisings they acquired a further 2,300,000 shares (29,219,437 – 26,919,437) Following the US$10m Fundraising the issued share capital of SDX was 204,459,708 The issued share capital of SDX is now 204,723,041 and on the SDX website WAHA hold 19.48% of the issued share capital or 39,880,048 shares Between the September 2017 Fundraising and now they have acquired a further 828,245 shares. (39,880,048 – 39,051,803) The figures in bold type are accurate and taken from the relevant RNS’s 11,500,000 x 18p = £2,070,000 (shares held prior to January 2017 Fundraising) 15,419,437 x 30p = £4,625,831 (25th January Fundraising) 2,300,0001x 30p = £690,000 9,832,366 x 43.75p = £4,301,660 (6th September 2017 Fundraising) 828,245 x 22p = £182,213 (estimated price of these additional shares) Total paid £11,869,704 divided by their shareholding 39,880,048 = 29.7p a share At today’s share price of 23p I estimate they are almost 30% down on their total investment. Not the best performance
suicidal_tendencies
24 Nov 2019
SDX - Friday's Trades - Something is going on SDX shares have traded weirdly for a long time, but I’ve never seen anything like yesterday.
Small_Holding
24 Nov 2019
SDX - Friday's Trades - Something is going on I am having problems understanding the figures from the London Stock Exchange graphs. 4.3m shares traded around 23p is around £989,000, even if you count the shares twice for the buy and sell, surely it is only £2m Anyway, nearly half the value of shares traded so far for the month of November 2019 went through on Friday and the share price stays nailed at the same price.
suicidal_tendencies
24 Nov 2019
SDX - Friday's Trades - Something is going on That is very suspicious trading.
theprior
23 Nov 2019
SDX - Friday's Trades - Something is going on Haha. Stymied by wind and rain so hunkered down. Log fire, beer, and telly! Have a good weekend TP
