Small_Holding
28 Jan 2020
SDX - RNS Successful drill result in Morocco This extract is taken from an August 2018 presentation but it shows how much the extra reserves are worth
Small_Holding
28 Jan 2020
SDX - RNS Successful drill result in Morocco Very good news, the OYF-2 has encountered commercial quantities of gas in excess of pre-drill estimates. In both the Upper and Lower Guebbas targets reservoir thickness and quality were better than pre drill expectations. Estimated to contain 1.3 to 1.9 bcf of recoverable gas. This discovery has de-risked a further 0.5 to 1 bcf of prospective resources. Good to get an RNS out and their success with the drill bit continues. Before the drilling campaign they had reserves in Morocco of 4 to 5 bcf. The five discoveries in the last RNS added 2 to 2.5 bcf and this result has added 1.3 to 1.9 bcf. With the Moroccan reserves going from 4 to 5 bcf to now 7.3 to 9.4 bcf, SDX have almost doubled reserves in this campaign so far with the exciting wells still to come. Given the way the markets are with the China virus I wouldn’t expect fireworks with the share price but this has again added real value to the company and will surely be reflected in the share price at some point. If nothing else it makes SDX even more attractive as a possible takeover target.
Small_Holding
27 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update I see SDX retweeted Malcy’s Blog as though it is a postive "SDX Energy Delayed from yesterday but SDX in a detailed statement updated the market on production, capex and added some guidance for this year. 2019 production was 4,020 boe/d, up 12% and at the upper end of guidance. 2020 guidance is 6,750-7000 boe/d obviously not like for like particularly after the delayed South Disouq came onstream and also includes 1,000-1,050 from NW Gemsa which is potentially for sale. 2019 capex was $40.7m, $4.5m higher due to two extra wells in Morocco whilst for 2020 the number falls to $25.5m as the 12 well program in Morocco completes but with 2 in Egypt and up to 3 appraisal/development wells in the West Gharb concession. The company is fully funded from cash internally generated from operations, in the balance sheet and the EBRD facility which could be increased. Finally the company has warned about non-cash impairments of some $18m at the final stage." Interestingly he makes no comment whatsoever on whether he considers the shares good value, poor value or whether he would steer clear. I still sense they aren’t on his Christmas Card List.
Ripley94
24 Jan 2020
SDX – M&A activity SDX… XXXX Been trying to slice here all week @ 26.5p did not lift yesterday despite chart showing above 27p. 5.5% spread . Went through when replaced this morning.
Small_Holding
24 Jan 2020
SDX - A Potential Takeover Target? Well everyone has their price to sell. In January 2019 if I had been offered 40p to sell my SDX shares I would have dismissed it out of hand. A year later after a 38% fall in the share price in 2019 and 10 months silence from the management, if someone offered me 40p for my shares now I would bite their hand off. In the January Update our CEO says; ""2019 was a successful year for SDX, with all key metrics being ahead of expectations, success with the drill bit and our key South Disouq development project completing on time and on budget. " Well it may have been a successful year for him on nearly a US$1,000 a week but for shareholders it was an awful year. I suspect there is an army of investors in SDX who would love to get out. They will all have a price in mind that they would take to let go of their shares. As for the large institutional investors, who knows but it hasn’t been a spectacular investment for anyone. If we do see an approach it would at least shake the company up and might finally get them to speak to the investment media
Zelion
23 Jan 2020
SDX - A Potential Takeover Target? than the question pops up , what would be a reasonable price ?
Small_Holding
23 Jan 2020
SDX - A Potential Takeover Target? Given the total apathy shown by SDX with regard to the low share price and the lack of effort being put into promoting the company, probably the best scenario from a retail investor’s point of view is that SDX becomes a takeover target. The following article was written on 3rd June 2019 and it suggested just that Proactiveinvestors UK SDX Energy tipped for significant upside as production growth and M&A looms Stockbroker Peel Hunt set a 38p price target and gave the North Africa focussed firm a 'buy' recommendation. Screenshot_2020-01-23 SDX Energy tipped for significant upside as production growth and M A looms(1).png631x544 16.3 KB As the author points out that given the low valuation SDX could be seen as a takeover target. Coincidentally the share price on the day the article was written was 25.75p, today’s price. However, since that article was written South Disouq has come online, has ramped up to the plateau rate ahead of schedule, the South Disouq reserves have increased by 35% and the Moroccan reserves have increased by 50%. The more interesting wells are still to be drilled later this year. If the author thought SDX could be a takeover target in June 2019, it has to be now. Apache Corporation, mentioned in the article, has a market cap of $11.6 billion. They have assets in Egypt and if they wanted to expand into Morocco where the fiscal terms are attractive, SDX could be a good fit. Some would say that Waha or Ingalls would not sell but they bought in around 30p, if an offer was in the high 30’s or 40p they might be tempted to cut and run. Most CEO’s worry about a low share price because of the risk of takeover, ours doesn’t seem bothered. With a fairly static share price and increasing value of their assets, SDX will just keep getting more attractive to potential suitors.
Small_Holding
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update Today just sums up the utter frustration of being an SDX share holder. A positive RNS giving the operations and financial update, giving confirmation that SDX have no debt, money in the bank, five successful wells drilled adding 50% to the Morocco reserves and potentially transformational drilling prospects in the next few months in both Morocco and Egypt. The market reacts by the share price remaining static and only 335,500 or 0.16% of the shares in issue traded on the day. We may get updated broker notes over the next couple of days but my perception is they are disillusioned with SDX as well. We get very little coverage and what we get seems to be indifferent to the company or the share price. Rightly or wrongly I get the impression that the brokers have also lost interest. Surely even the most passionate of investors here can see that something is very wrong with the total silence from the company, in terms of interviews and promotion. During the course of the year a CEO gets a few opportunities to promote the company, today was one of those for SDX. Given our CEO has been the invisible man for nearly eight months one would have hoped that he might have granted an interview but no he decided against it. As I have said before some of the interviews can be conducted over the phone without the need to leave home but still our CEO, for some reason, does not want to speak to the investment public .
Small_Holding
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update If there are no buyers the share price will stay at this level until SDX sells the company to a bigger oil/gas company. The volumes are pathetically low so most investors must believe institutional investors are not currently buying. If it is to be retail investors we want to attract then even more reason for the SDX Roadshow to leave the garage and start promoting the business. Retail investors are scared by the silence, I wouldn’t invest another £1 here until we hear from the management.
suicidal_tendencies
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update SH, those ii and HL holdings could also be made up of some large sub-3% holdings too, and I would expect they are. HL and ii are two big brokers in the UK but there are plenty of others. The trend has been for retail to dump their shares and they’ve been taken up by strong hands. It does explain the slow trading and low volumes.
Small_Holding
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update As you say the latest presentation gives the significant shareholders, holding more than 3% as 75.57%. They show in the small print that that is made up of 64.21% Institutional and 11.36% Retail Investors. Screenshot_2020-01-22 Investor-Presentation-January-2020 pdf.png1168x826 45.3 KB That at least clarifies that the significant holders of Hargreaves Lansdown AM 6.9% and Interactive Investor 4.46% are the significant retail investors ((6.9 + 4.46 = 11.36) In other words those holdings are the total sum of all the SDX shares held by their retail account holders. With 204,723,041 shares in issue that 11.36% equates to 23,256,537 shares With 75.57% total holdings of the significant shareholders, that leaves 24.43% or 50,013,838 shares not accounted for on that table. There will obviously be institutional investors who own below the 3% threshold who have no requirement to declare their holding. In addition, the total holding of all the board members is also taken out of that figure. The bottom line is we do not know exactly how many shares are held by retail investors. With so many companies offering share dealing accounts and just two between them holding 11.36% of the shares in issue, I think it is reasonable to assume that at least 20% of the shares in issue are held by retail investors, possibly more. Liquidity is important in a share and although institutional investors are welcome, we don’t want them to hold too many, it jus reduces the number of shares in free float.
suicidal_tendencies
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update I don’t think retail really knows about this stock and certainly isn’t interested. The stock is over 65% held by strong institutional/HNW hands. Likely even more than that with >3% holdings not reported.
theprior
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update And, yet, the sp languishes. Wonder when the market will realise the potential here. Agree the CEO could do much more to promote the company but the facts are there for all to see. One day, my friends, one day! TP
suicidal_tendencies
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update I agree. A very nice update. 50% increase in Morocco reserves with the ‘play-opening’ drills yet to come. There could be a very decent amount of cash on the balance sheet come the end of 2020.
Small_Holding
22 Jan 2020
Sdx - operations and financial update **The big one for me, they still had US$11m in cash at the year end. This is very good as it should be as low as the cash falls, the big expenditure of South Disouq CPF purchase and installation has now been paid. ** SDX should be generating more than enough to pay the capex and have some left over to build their cash reserves/war chest. Edison, in their note on the 12th December 2019 estimated that SDX would finish the year 31st December 2019 with only US$5.1m, in the event they had more than double that. No real bad news, North West Gemsa is still on borrowed time but who knows they might still get a good few months out of it. Seven wells drilled, five successes, adding 2 to 2.5 bcf or 50% to the existing reserves. This will satisfy the existing customer’s demands for the next three years. Anything found in the next five wells could be sold elsewhere, a big result in Lalla Mimouna North could go to the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline. South Disouq drilling mid/late February and great to hear only 8 kilometre and 5 kilometre pipelines required to link to the CPF, if successful. In short, a very good update and we haven’t even touched the exciting wells yet. This update should give a lift to the share price but if it doesn’t there can only be one reason why not, silence from the company. I hope we see an interview from our CEO later in the day, there is no reason not to. This update contains a lot of good information that he could talk to, it is a perfect opportunity to break the silence
