Eadwig
13 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! Hardboy, "although it is an AIM stock; I have been very impressed with the management "You summed that up admirably. When it is AIM, you need to know three things about the company: Management, management and management.I expected it to be high right now, H&T, but rest assured it is on my watchlist - gold has pulled back the last two days, if it comes back even more sharply, H&T might also.If I were selling SDP, like Omaha man, I would be selling with the intention of rebuying lower down when the immediate post-Brexit waves reduce to ripples. As it is, I don't have the option, hence the subject line of this thread.I have hung on to my two Indian funds, which had been up and down and about flat on average for the last 13 months, since I bought them. They are now up approaching 30% up on my books and I'm considering whether or not to sell out there. Trouble is they are both 'Offshore UK Authorised " trusts, and when you buy or sell there tends to be a big spread and a delay, so you never quite know what price you are going to get when the transaction executes 1-5 days later. So, I think I'll be leaving those alone, actually.They were bought to add Indian growth to my SIPP (having sold miners to get the money to buy them) and the IMF is predicting Indian growth will be over 8% next year and double figures before 2020. Most of that growth at the moment is in building infrastructure and homes, and the financing of same. Which kind of brings us full circle in terms of our post's contents, ESP, UK housing etc.. Hopefully India has looked at other property booms around the world and is following best practices. Hahaha. Having spent some time there, the very thought of them being that organised is a bit of a joke. They aren't China. India is a massive mix of culture and colour and about the most chaotic place I've ever been - not to mention a democracy. They will grow, they will be a massive world power, but they'll get there in their own unique and generally inefficient manner.I still have about 4% of my whole portfolio in them though, but spread across a general fund and a mid-cap fund, with fund managers who hopefully know the market and have spread the risk adequately. Weeell, one can hope!Good luck
Hardboy
12 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! Eadwig,Great post. It's a while since I looked at H&T; and I suspect after the recent surge in sp it is probably now a little over valued; but certainly one to keep an eye on. It pays a dividend, and although it is an AIM stock; I have been very impressed with the management - the way they rode out the gold price crash after maximising benefit from its high price was pretty impressive. Like you I expected house builders & property to be hit post Brexit - as they have been, but I think it has been overdone; and I was soon back into Barretts - buying more shares and pocketing a cash gain. The country still needs houses, especially at the lower end of the price sector. I like you logic for recommending ESP & will certainly look into it. I also agree about supporting education - I won't bore you with my theory about the best future for this country is to ensure we have the best public (i.e. fee paying) schools in the world. But having top Universities that foreigners want to come to is also very important. (Assuming they will still be allowed to if the migration control lobbyists get their way.) And in many towns, Universities are the biggest employers after the councils these days. As for SDP - before the referendum is was trading around 266, now its around 307 - up 15%. The £ is down around 12% against the $ in the same time; so there has not been a very big rise other than purely related to forex. I understand Omaha Man's plan to sell, but I think I'll hold on a little longer to see where it goes from here. I like to have some exposure to the far East & have recently sold my Indian IT.
Eadwig
12 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! Omaha Man.Unfortunately, i agree with everything you say, potentially. we've just entered earnings season in the US of A, and that could change market sentiment around very quickly, despite S&P 500 hitting an all time high yesterday. Earnings in US companies have been dropping the last few quarters, and they are not going to be helped by a stronger dollar as people fly to safety there.Also, an unexpectedly (record) high number of jobs created in June has put another Fed rate rise back on the table for this year. I can't believe they'll make the same mistake as they did in December - the markets in the first 6 weeks of the year should warn them off, but they may point at that new high and say, well, you recovered ok! (Employment figures also indicate in normal times it might be time to tighten).It really would be a disaster for USA business if they do, and it is the US that has led the globe out of the 2008 financial crisis (not China as I expected, if I'm honest) but the EU and Eurozone especially hasn't really recovered yet.If the Eu and/or Euro gets into trouble, we will all feel it, whether in the UK, USA, China or Japan. And worst case scenario is it would be even worse than 2008 by a long way. That's why people have moved into gold so quickly (I missed that one, almost bought some back at $1050).Let's hope we don't end up there, eh? Good luck.
Eadwig
12 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! Hardboy, "uncertainty, which markets hate, is going to be around for years, so I'm expecting a correction from this euphoria before too long"Me too. Also been building a cash position since before the vote as I always believed it was too close to call.Pawnbroker business is a very good idea, I shall look into that, as I too believe this will largely be bad for business in the UK, certainly in the short term, probably in the medium term and possibly we will never make back losses to GDP even if things work out OK in the longer term.One of my best ideas for places to put cash has been, and so far seems to be holding up, with some wobbles, ESP a REIT specialising in student accommodation. It might seem strange recommending a property portfolio in this environment, but for a long term investment, (Ie one that will cover at least one full UK property sector cycle) they look very good. I've always believed one of the few areas UK can compete globally is in education, and attending college in the UK has just got a whole lot cheaper for foreign students. And they happen to be ESP's biggest market, especially post grad students.They are a new company, still issuing regular IPOs as they build towards their target of 10,000 beds under management. They have about 2,800 still to go, which should be another couple of IPOs and if property prices do plunge, they will benefit (they sometimes order new builds, sometimes convert old commercial properties, sometimes buy out existing accommodation from colleges or other providers).The first issue was 100p and the plan is to pay 6% + RPI on that amount, rising each year. They've more or less achieved that level of dividend. Being a REIT they're obliged to pay out 80% of all profits out in dividends (or some similar rule). They had a high of about @114p and dropped to approx @99p around Brexit, but are now back about @108p. I picked some more up @103p and have a limit order @97p, just in case. Considering the main asset value of the company is property, then the fall has been exceptionally modest compared to other property, I think you'll agree. The sp has never really taken off, because so far there was always another IPO on the horizon which would be offered at a discounted price to the share price. I expect the next one will be in the Autumn, probably, although I guess they're waiting to see what happens to property prices. They will definitely already have certain properties, or land, targeted, but no commitments yet, so flexible with that last 25% of their target portfolio. To some extent, anyway, they do look to achieve an 'optimum number of beds in each city' which presumably means enough to keep any support staff optimally busy.ESP should be held in an ISA or SIPP if possible, due to new tax rules. I have some in a trading account, and it did shave some cash off one dividend payment compared to what was paid in my SIPP.Brexit is a personal catastrophe for me, as I split my time between UK and Poland, but also the timing could hardly have been worse due to endowment mortgage maturing next month, already earmarked to be spent abroad, so FX affected and many other factors I wont bore you with.I'm not moaning, have to get on with it and simply make as much cash as possible from trading the volatility. I note the pound is a little stronger today, and already some of those 'safe haven' companies that earn US dollars are showing signs of money leaving them. Talk about volatile. Piling into oilers and miners was NOT what I had expected to see. Or HSBC. I've taken the opportunity to reduce my holdings in some of them at small profits, with every expectation of being able to buy back in cheaper later if I choose to do so. That has been quite a silver lining after making some big mistakes chasing dividend yields.Good luck - thanks for the response. Eadwig.
Omaha man
12 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! I agree it's very hard to keep track on evderything which is going on when markets are this volatile. I am personally thinking about reducing here following the strong bounce; my expectation is that sterling will stabilise around these levels which removes an important potential source of further upside. I think there is a very strong probability that the UK will drop into recession - and personally I would expect it to stay there for at least a couple of years unless we see a significant relaxation of government spending targets - so I too have increased my cash. There is a disconnect at the moment with both bonds and equities rising globally and my concern is that the bond markets will prove to be right, growth globally will slow again and non-UK equities will then come under pressure - particularly in the US where record high's keep on being recorded. If the US market slides, then all will follow to a greater or lesser degree.
Hardboy
12 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! Don't beat yourself up Eadwig.One can not keep one's eye on all shares all the time; and there has been a lot going on. From other posts I get the impression that you've been making some other good decisions so this is one that got away - no point crying over spilt milk; as they say. I was determined to get back in to Dignity when/if it fell back below £24 - missed my chance. There are other fish in the sea. The effect of Brexit was predictable - Financials, House Builders, Property, Travel Companies, Net Importers get hammered; whilst net exporters, foreign investments, and companies dealing in $ based items shoot up. what I had not quite anticipated was how large the falls and rises were, and still don't know how long the effect is going to last.Apart from the forex effect, I still think Brexit is by enlarge bad for business, and uncertainty, which markets hate, is going to be around for years, so I'm expecting a correction from this euphoria before too long; and have been building some cash in readiness. 2 shares that have interested me in post brexit are H&T - the only listed pawnbroker, which has shot up, despite a trading statement saying that apart from the price of gold helping a bit, things are pretty much as they were. The other is IGG. This is one business which should benefit big time from market volatility and increased trading levels, but the share price has only moved more or less with the market, if that. They have an update a week today, so I will be up at 7 reading that.
Eadwig
11 Jul 2016
Bo!!ocks! For various reasons this year i took my eye off this particular ball and missed my re-entry points.I made the right decision to get out when I did @285p just about 13 months ago, but the intention was always to buy back in, probably starting around @250p with the first tranche. I was considering that back in Feb this year, but then got distracted, and never really came back to it - that's the trouble when no one else is posting on a board like this.I think its probably well and truly too late to catch the fast rebound growth in this one. I never anticipated it being used as a safe haven post Brexit, I must admit. Whether or not I'd want to just invest in at as a fund covering the region and paying a divi I don't know, I'm now going to have to spend time looking at other available options and weighing them up also, before I can make that decision.I would imagine there will be a pull back at some point, and perhaps @280p is a more reasonable figure for re-entry now if the GBP stays devalued as it currently is. Meanwhile, I don't really have the region covered, apart from a little overlap from some other funds.One thing for sure. I need to shorten my shopping list if I can overlook the kind of rise SDP has had in the last 2 weeks until noticing it just today.
Eadwig
23 Aug 2015
Re: Sold @285p With an ask price now @250p, and various talking heads saying that most of the last few days drops on the S&P (5% in 3 days) are actually on emerging market companies, it is hard to judge if it is time to buy back in yet. when i sold, i always had 250p in mind for re-entry, if it dropped that far, now I wonder if I shouldn't be waiting for 220p ... or maybe looking at a different fund altogether...
Eadwig
18 Jun 2015
Sold @285p I sold out of these to preserve profit @285p in fear that shennanigans on the US dollar front might cause a dip like we saw in 2013 when fears that financing in Asia and emerging markets would become very tight causing a rapid slowdown in growth.Plus, it is perhaps not the worst time to build up some cash reserves given the uncertainty over Greece. I also sold SOI (Oriental Income) a few days before, which has been a pretty disappointing performer and virtually back to where I last bought it with just some modest dividends to show.I have every intention of getting back into SDP again, but as I am exposed to Asian markets elsewhere in my portfolio, I thought i would have a go at missing some of the potential drop. Of course, as can be seen from the chart, I have acted late and any froth may have already been removed from the sp. Still, if i can buy back in 5%+ cheaper (say @270p or under) I'll count it as a worthwhile saving.It may not be the right timing or decision for other holders, but given my action I give SDP a weak sell at this point.
Eadwig
23 Mar 2015
Re: good progress citytrade, "Hard to get enough information "Not if you take the time to use this link below to update yourself every month. I would prefer to see the portfolio holdings updated each month too, the current page is November 2014. However, working from that using the monthly updates can pretty much keep you full informed on the situation.[link]
wineberry
16 Mar 2015
Discount & DT comment NAV currently 332, so on a good discount. Mentioned in Daily Telegraph Money as an investment trust to play the Asian stock markets over the next 5 years. Approx 66% of assets held in Hong Kong, China and India. Fund manager has long experience of investing in Asian markets
citytrade
10 Feb 2015
good progress Hard to get enough information
Eadwig
05 Feb 2015
Re: New Highs Re: India - I'm just looking for growth in a market that should mirror the Chinese emergence. It wont though - and if you have ever visited both countries, as I have, the reason why is immediately apparent. Still - no reason why india can't achieve high levels of growth year on year for decades, just as China did, even if they can't control thiungs in the same way and are generally terrible at efficiency.For that reason, if I was building a position in an India fund, I wouldn't be too concerned about my first tranche in-price. I do understand its different once you've been in and sold and then want back in, Hardboy. Psychologically different that is. Shouldn't really make any difference if you are a believer in the long-term Indian story though - but it does, as I know from selling my S&P tracker about 18 months ago and I watch it continuing to make new highs even now. I should havew realised quickly what i thought was the top, wasn't, and got straight back in ... but I'm still on the side-lines and the longer I wait the more likely it seems a large correction is just round the corner.
Hardboy
04 Feb 2015
Re: New Highs I held NII too for a while, but sold just before Christmas when there was a pull back in the price. Generally India was looking a bit over bought. Sadly for me it has continued from strength to strength since I sold. So I'm looking for a dip to get back in. But, in short to agree with Hanoiboy is answering the good king's query, NII is a fine vehicle for India (unless you want a dividend - so far it just aims for growth.)
hanoiboy
04 Feb 2015
Re: New Highs "still looking for a reasonable fund to track india for the next 5 yearsd or so. open to suggestions, anyone? "Have a look at JII and NII. Both have done reasonably well recently although my holding in NII has outperformed JII by a small margin. Neither have paid dividends for years
