Omaha man
02 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale 'Just wondering how a falling dollar is bad for Asia?'If the Dollar falls then there are two potential outcomes for Asian economies: 1) their currency is effectively tied to the $ so it also falls reducing share prices in £ terms 2) their currency strengthens against the $ reducing corporate margins or cutting demand. Both of these are clearly negative for Asian markets. More broadly I just fear that everything will sell off if Trump wins - nobody (possibly least of all he) knows what he will do if he wins. There is a long period of uncertainty given the January start before anything is revealed and markets just hate uncertainty.
brahms
02 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale Agreed. I sold a few this morning (2000) too as a precaution ahead of the US election. I still have quite a lot but having watched the price go from 260 to 360 in a few months which I never seen before (I have been invested in SDP since 1998!!), it seemed prudent to cash in a few shares. Just wondering - I am no economist btw - how a falling dollar is bad for Asia? I think I read somewhere that a rising dollar is bad as a lot of Asia's debts are dollar denominated. Thanks.
Omaha man
02 Nov 2016
Pre-emptive sale I have sold my holding this morning as I am very concerned that Trump may actually win the US election. If he does then I think not only will all markets slide - the smaller Asian ones probably more than most - but we would almost certainly see a fall in the Dollar as well. Such a double hit could see this fall back quite substantially.I hope to goodness I am wrong and that I can buy back in at roughly the same price in a week or two. The alternative doesn't really bear thinking about.
Hardboy
18 Aug 2016
Re: Where next? Maybe the FED are going to wait to see who will be the next president; and whether economic policy will be more of the same or designed to split the world into USA & the rest.
Eadwig
18 Aug 2016
Re: Where next? Well, I haven't seen the FED minutes, but the USD weakened 2 cents plus against the GBP, so i'm guessing there is no sign of a rate hike any time soon. That means emerging markets go onwards and upwards.It isn't just about their loan rates, which I mentioned in my previous post, they also buy lots of commodities for infrastructure etc, so they remain relatively affordable for them, although if they are net exporters of a commodity, it may work against them. Just to be clear on that, places such as Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong are always going to be packed full of electronic manufacturers etc who will be buying in components in dollars and so will benefit from it remaining low. They definitely will not be exporting things like base metals mined out of the ground (Eg. the likes of Indonesia).Last time I looked the SDP fund had a lot of manufacturers like Samsung in its top 10 holdings, they are only going to benefit from a weaker dollar, on the whole.
brahms
18 Aug 2016
Re: Where next? Indeed - thanks. I remember the taper tantrum! Crazy times in so many ways.
Eadwig
17 Aug 2016
Re: Where next? brahms,Watch out for any indications from the FED minutes today if there is a rate hike on the cards before the end of the year. If there is, watch emerging markets dive as their loans become more expensive. Personally, I don't think they'll dare after what happened following the December rate hike. The world economy just can't take it, plus no great inflationary pressure in the USA anyway. Then again, same could have been said last December.
brahms
16 Aug 2016
Where next? Having watched the share price go to 318 or there abouts a year or so ago and then sink to the 230s, I recently sold a few at 303. Now we are around 339! Quite (!) a dramatic rise since Brexit and not it would seem confined to SDP. The $64000 question is when will the party end? Perhaps when the summer is over and folks are back at work in earnest? So difficult knowing when to sell - much easier buying.
Hardboy
27 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! Eadwig, it may have been prudent to jump in 2 weeks ago instead of cursing yourself for missing the boat. it's up over 5 % since you posted your first message. The trend's your friend. (Or whatever the chartists say.)
Hardboy
19 Jul 2016
Re: New High Two good posts, gents. They sum up many of the fears I had in the event of a Leave Vote. All the positive movements are down to the weakness of the £. "companies are going to put capex on hold for a while " or they might just relocate it to Ireland. Aye biggorrah, this could be a Godsend for the Emerald Isle.
Omaha man
19 Jul 2016
Re: New High I would agree the pound is probably going to fall back again: we have had the relief rally that our political shambles has been sorted, but markets will now refocus on the economics which to my mind looks very poor. We may get a rate cut, though I doubt it has much potential to stimulate the economy. More importantly markets are going to look at our horrific trade deficit, which is about to get much worse following the devaluation. I am still pretty sure that we will go into recession: companies are going to put capex on hold for a while as they wait to see what the trading relationship with Europe looks like and consumer confidence has fallen so they are not going to continue to ride to the rescue. Short of a big boost in government spending (which I actually think is quite likely, but not in the next six months) there is nothing to prop up growth.If the currency pushes this on to new highs then I will look to take a bit more out, though I would like to see the discount closed too before making any further move.
Eadwig
19 Jul 2016
Re: New High The pound appears to be weakening again, so the fund may push on further yet ... especially if a rate cut in August as has been hinted.I'm not sure that will happen. Inflation rose more sharply than expected in June and is bound to surge again in July with the full impact of the falling pound after Brexit applied.I don't think a rate cut will truly stimulate the economy very much - but it will hit the pound further. And the banks, who Carney is hoping will be more open with their lending. So long as they are, he doesn't need to try and force them with a rate cut. Plus a fed hike this year is now more likely after the last US jobs figures, so the pound might be weakening further against the dollar (and buying less global commodities) anyway, generating more inflationary pressure.I know he'd like to see inflation at 2%, but not from a weak pound, from genuine economic growth. I think QE is more likely to help stimulate thatBut what do I know?.
Hardboy
18 Jul 2016
New High Friday saw a new high for the NAV; whilst the share price is still about 8p off its high.
Omaha man
14 Jul 2016
Partial sale Following from my earlier comments, I have sold just over 20% of my holding today at 309. With the pound having rallied somewhat I'm happy to trim my exposure. I can't help but feel we are due a pull-back in markets; not just in the UK following the relief rally that we are going to have a grown-up as PM, but moreimportantly in the US. If the latter proves correct, then I expect Asian markets to follow down.
Hardboy
13 Jul 2016
Re: Bo!!ocks! I'm a long term India fan - it has to be where the growth of the world is - 2nd biggest population, and all under 25 (slight exaggeration.) China's is an ageing population. And India is a democracy. The growth is bound to be choppy; that's why I'm trying to dip in and out (having just sold on the recent rise) while the world economy is fairly flat. Of course this fund has around 12% in India too.
