II Editor
02 Aug 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Nine adventurous investment trust tips for 2017/18 "Fiona Hamilton runs through Money Observer's adventurous investment trust tips.Global: JPMorgan Global Growth & IncomeLSE:JPGI:JPMorgan Global Growth & Income is our new adventurous choice*, replacing LSE:FRCL:Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust, ..."[link]
brahms
27 May 2017
Now over £4! Up over 55% in a year. Sold some at £3 and some more at £3.50. There must surely be some sort of large correction at some point........
Omaha man
03 May 2017
Re: Returned I still have concerns over the risks of Trump adversely impacting trade in the region, to say nothing of what might happen with North Korea, but am also concerned that in being too cautious I could be deserting one of the more dynamic regions of the world economy. Everything I have seen in the last 6 months confirms my view that Brexit will be initially a shambles and then a disaster for the UK economy and that medium term the only way for sterling is down. Having drastically cut my overseas exposure late last year, buying back a bit here doesn't seem too high risk.On the NAV front, the long term performance tables indicate that over 3 years the share price has risen slightly less than the NAV, while shorter term it's done a bit better. Overall therefore the discount seems to be relatively stable in this type of area - though this could hide greater short term fluctuations.
Eadwig
02 May 2017
Re: Returned Omaha man, "The discount to NAV is ~11% (I didn't note what it was when I sold)"There is usually a graph somewhere that tracks the price and the NAV. It would answer your question above - but more importantly give you a better idea of what the average discount to the NAV is.I've found trading funds like this based on the NAV fluctuation alone can actually be pretty profitable, especially with those that occasionally go positive to the NAV (there isn't many of them).I was thinking of getting back in myself recently, with lots of good reports about the global economy and Asia specifically. Then just this weekend China took an unexpected dip and another fund manager was reported as talking about 'the recession in emerging markets' - which was news to me!Ultimately, the weakening dollar will play a large part here, also don't underestimate the influence of North Korea and Trump. Both have hammered one of my funds, many of the holdings are priced in dollars and the biggest holding (ten percent of the fund, no less) is South Korean.I happened to buy just as the dollar started weakening and the sabre rattling started. Luckily, its a long term play for me (cyber-security) so I bought a second tranche and am prepared to go another two if necessary. I say 'luckily', the fund is very volatile so buying in tranches is my normal practice, so luck didn't enter into it, really.Good luck!
Omaha man
02 May 2017
Returned I have bought back in today - about 6% above the level at which I sold back in November. Missed my chance to get in lower, but now feel on balance this is likely to continue to make steady progress, so it's better to be here than out. I also expect sterling to weaken again in the medium term which would help.The discount to NAV is ~11% (I didn't note what it was when I sold) but over the longer term I wouldn't expect it to average much lower than that.
Omaha man
11 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale Increasingly looking like the market's initial reaction to sell was the right one and the immediate bounce-back was the mistake. I think the transmission mechanism to lower equity prices is likely to be though rising bond yields. Bonds were already over-extended and had begun to slip; I would expect the current slide to continue on fears of higher inflation and a larger US budget deficit.There has been a general assumption that Trump will be able to do what he wants because Congress is in Republican hands, but it will be interesting to see how that plays out if he cuts taxes, boosts infrastructure spending and the deficit balloons. The fiscal-nazi's of the party are not going to be happy. At the moment both markets and commentators are rationalising things and assuming he wont be too radical and everything will be ok. That may be true, but there is a lot of downside risk if it isn't.
Hardboy
10 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale That was one thing he was consistent about - he would cut taxes, but no specifics about what taxes to what levels. He also said he'd simplify the tax system and close loop holes so people like him can't earn billions and not pay tax; but it was all airy fairy: no substance. That would be a large cut to public finances in the short term, and he needs to find money to spend on rebuilding all the inner cities, not to mention a wall along the Rio Grande; and the extra armaments to keep up with the Ruskies and to destroy ISIS. There's a friendly soccer game this week between Mexico & the US. There may be an extra spice to it now. I think international businesses will still open units in Ireland. The EU is still the biggest single market in the world, and it is best to be in it to trade within it. English is the most common business language, so International businesses are generally more comfortable in an English Speaking country. So what country speaks English and is in the EU? Ireland could do very well out of UK's vote to leave.
Eadwig
10 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale I heard some specific policies from someone today, who used the term 'We' when talking about the in-coming administration. The one specific he put numbers to was to bring US corporation tax down form "around 30-35%" where it is now to "15-20%, which means that it will no longer pay US companies to set-up in places like Ireland ... " he went on to name several other countries, and actually remembered not to name the UK as he was talking to the BBC, so at least he had his head screwed on diplomatically.The rest of the talk was whether or not these tax cuts would 'trickle down' which I thought was a silly question and so did he replying that if those companies are opening new manufacturing in USA then of course they will be employing American 'middle class' workers. (Americans always say middle class when they mean working class).Which was a fair enough answer if it works, but it wont work quickly enough I'm guessing. You need to have policies already making an impact by the time you're 2 years in or you start losing senate and congress members at the mid-term elections.Americans will almost always vote against the president's party to grid lock Washington anyway because they don't really want government messing around too much, so he's into damage limitation quite quickly in terms of policies with a quick impact. This is why they say you only really get anything done in the first 100 days of taking power, after that you're fighting the mid-terms and raising cash for them.The rest of the interview was arguing about whether or not this would add 1% to GDP growth or not, and the guy said there were other policies too, but we didn't get to hear them in this interview. Sometimes I wish the BBC journos would actually shut up and let people talk instead of interrupting them all the time think they're all Paxman.Of course, I don't need to add that needing to make a quick impact is NOT the best way to plan for and to change an economy as a rule.The one thing you really can't go wrong with is building infrastructure. Its almost always worth while and employs people pretty much from day one. In the Us you have to get the budget and pick your state and congress area you want to influence of course - and then swallow the pork that gets added to the projects to buy votes in the house.
Hardboy
09 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale OM & Eadwig, "the one I think is most crucial here is that his policies have been superficial (at best) to date."To be fair that was true of both candidates. I watched all 3 debates hoping to hear some specific policies, I learnt Trump's tax returns and not been audited and the date of Clinton's Grandchild's birthday, and they struggled to find anything they respected about each other, but policies? Effectively nothing. I wasn't keen on either winning, but I reasoned if Clinton won it was likely to be more of the same, and with the 2 houses in Republican hands, she would be prevented from doing anything too stupid. And she has got a lot of experience around her. They both talked about what they were going to achieve, but not how they were going to achieve things. You never know if he goes too far off the rails he may regret cosying up to the Gun Folk. Today's initial reaction was expected, but the recovery through the day was surprising and kind of reassuring. This is now the only specific emerging market share I hold; but I expect weakness there for some time over the coming months, so there may be good opportunities.
Omaha man
09 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale Eadwig, you make a lot of good points there - the one I think is most crucial here is that his policies have been superficial (at best) to date. He has run on slogans not policies. Unless things have changed he doesn't even have serious advisers in many key areas as far as I'm aware.As I posted before, for me that implies huge uncertainty and I'm very surprised the markets have reacted as calmly as they have so far. Maybe they expct a re-run of Brexit with a sharp sell-off followed by a strong recovery, so people have avoided the sell-off. To my mind this has potentially much more serious economic consequences globally if he follows an aggressive trade stance.All of that though pales into insignificance in view of the risks he, together with a scientifically illiterate Congress, poses to the climate.
Eadwig
09 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale Hardboy, "I certainly expect some changes in the US's relationship with the outside world. "He's promised his (what was previously thought of as too small) base; male, blue collar workers, protectionist policies to win them jobs back in manufacturing and other raw materials type processing across the US rust belt.He's also a big supporter of coal use, apparently. The USA has the biggest coal reserves in the world, much of which looked set to stay un-mined, and probably still will be, given they reckon 300 years of mining to get it all out. However, I can see a lot of previous restrictions of the production of fossil fuels being lifted without Obama's stance against them.This might put the US on collision course with the rest of the world over climate change - I'm not sure what he thinks about it, and the USA are signed up to the Paris treaty ratified a few days ago. His stance against the drug companies is not clear either - during the campaign he and Clinton promised to stop them price gouging.The fact is, though, that the US market's high drug prices is the only real market-led driver for research and development in new drugs which don't have huge potential across massive swathes of the population. Drugs aimed at 1 in 1000 or 10,000 people, which are extremely expensive, will suffer in development if he carries through his campaign threat against biotechs. The same risk was there whoever won, I might add.I bet he'll change the law that allows US companies to repatriate profits from abroad without suffering heavy tax penalties. This might cause a lot of money to be withdrawn from emerging markets and possibly make US investment in those economies less likely if the balance between re-investing in an Asian manufactury or repatriating previously earned profits is less of a one way bet.His policies, if they exist, have been so superficial and under-reported, it is very hard to make predictions. But unless his own party turns on him - which is very possible - he has a 2 year run where he can really make a difference while both the senate and congress are held by republicans.
Hardboy
09 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale OM,Very good & well timed decision to sell. Congratulations. I confess once the FBI had cleared Clinton I thought the opinion polls would have got it right & she would win; but I should never over estimate the American People's intelligence, or knowledge of anything outside their home town.Sell off not as big here as I expected this morning; but I too expect volatile, unsettled, markets over the coming months. Miners up - on the expectation that a Trump win will herald a massive rebuilding programme in the US. Not surprisingly Pharmas are up too. As you say it is scary to imagine what he is going to do. It is possible he will be good for world economies. It would not surprise me, for instance, if he & Putin got on well; which could relieve some political tension; but I certainly expect some changes in the US's relationship with the outside world.
Omaha man
09 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale 'We live in a volatile and strange world, which might be about to become totally surreal come next Tuesday ... I shudder to think.'Sadly we now have to think about that. I'm very glad I sold and I would expect this to lead to quite a prolonged sell-off. We have two months before the man even takes power and nobody has a clue what he will do (probably including himself, he seems to make most things up as he goes along). Markets hate uncertainty and we now have that in abundance.There has to be a good chance of this triggering a full-blown global recession with even the Chinese economy slowing right down over fears of market access into the USA.
Eadwig
03 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale The Fed have more or less pencilled in a rate rise for December, and that will strengthen the dollar and make loans to emerging markets more expensive - and commodities they buy for construction or turning into finished goods to export will also become more expensive to buy.I think this might be the main reason for the move today.I think taking some profit after such a good rin is never a bad idea no matter what. I already took all mine having been in them from the start also, brahms, so I missed the recent rises.I've done just as well in Indian based funds instead - but they've been slammed the last couple of days too.We live in a volatile and strange world, which might be about to become totally surreal come next Tuesday ... I shudder to think.
brahms
03 Nov 2016
Re: Pre-emptive sale Thanks for your thoughts. Good timing given today's slide!
