jackdawsson
08 May 2019
Buy at 215.96 regardless: Tin hat’s all round Regardless, Barely anything that’s not fallen across the FTSE & elsewhere recently, not without a little help from the devious, unhinged narcissist currently domiciled in the White House. Par for the course, mostly sentiment-driven jitters. Happens every once in a while. The naive & the hopeless react. Wiser heads stay firm, stick by their targets, look ahead, see the bigger picture. - GL.
regardless
08 May 2019
Buy at 215.96 Tin hat’s all round Hahahaha
SaraRacano
08 May 2019
Buy at 215.96 Off to a good start, then!
jackdawsson
07 May 2019
Buy at 215.96 Bought back at 215.96. Reasons: possible double-bottom reversal with 216 closing low seen 25th April, though it went lower intraday. Those were lowest levels for 16 years. Also, after rising to 237.19 highs on 1st May, falls again look overdone. Especially compared to TSCO & MRW. If I’m wrong, will hold longer-term for target circa 230 to 235+ again. NB: SBRY goes ex-date on 6th June for a handy 7.9p for any inconvenience of holding longer. - GLA.
jackdawsson
02 May 2019
Buy at 213.89 SaraRacano: You don´t hang around! A 10% return in just a matter of days is certainly not bad (although a huge element of luck is needed). It just shows that reducing the emotional element to stock your chances of success are much higher, also the old cliché of buying in the red selling in the blue also increases the chance of success. Say if this stock went up another 10%-15% should you really care? Be happy with what you´ve made a profit is always a profit! Sara, Agreed. A lot of good luck with timing also plays a part. Especially before reports. They can go either way. Also agree that many traders don’t care to see a stock continue climbing after they’ve sold. Once the business is done, that’s it. Few exit at tops or buy near bottoms consistently. Besides, markets will aways provide opportunity elsewhere. Indeed, I don’t like to hang around. FWIW, some of my UKX trades last minutes. OTOH, I’ve no unbreakable rules when it comes to sitting longer with beaten-down stocks & collecting yield until closer to targets seen. Depends on their recovery potential. In rare exceptions, I’ll also sell at loss & take my medicine. For eg. with ANTO in 2016 when I called the direction badly wrong & was over-leveraged. That cost me a few grand & was my most expensive single crystallised loss. Of note, SBRY’s closed at 222.50 day low. So that technical gap I mentioned in my sell is filled. Which doesn’t mean it can’t continue falling below it later, but no surprise if buyers return. For my money, SBRY would tempt me again if it heads towards a potential double-bottom reversal. Whether it will do is far from certain. SBRY’s price moves over the past week is a fine example of fickle sentiment trumping reason. A lot of price moves seem quite irrational. Such is the market & human behaviour. As for my commentary asides: they’re just that. In this case I’m mindful that some investors are well-down here, but holding long-term hoping for solid recovery. My aside clarifies that any sell of mine is no reflection on this stock’s longer-term prospects. That’s all. - Regards.
SaraRacano
02 May 2019
Buy at 213.89 You don´t hang around! A 10% return in just a matter of days is certainly not bad (although a huge element of luck is needed). It just shows that reducing the emotional element to stock your chances of success are much higher, also the old cliché of buying in the red selling in the blue also increases the chance of success. Say if this stock went up another 10%-15% should you really care? Be happy with what you´ve made a profit is always a profit! Potential is just potential nothing more. I entered & exited promptly from a trader’s motive. BS, it should also be considered prudent & rational & considering the chart is very much a bearish pattern, it should be considered a very risky stock.
jackdawsson
01 May 2019
Buy at 213.89 jackdawsson: Shares at 213.89. Reasons: good historic support around these levels & much of the recent heavy selling seems mostly sentiment-driven due to collapsed ASDA merger. Sold at 235. Over 10% profit in a few days is more than decent enough. Certainly by my standards. Other reasons probably immaterial, but I’m also mindful that today’s 229.60 open leaves a technical gap below from yesterday’s 222.50 close. My sell no reflection on stock’s potential. I entered & exited promptly from a trader’s motive. Hope this stocks continues to see steady recovery for L/T holders. - GLA.
regardless
01 May 2019
Buy at 213.89 Bootiful Jack As they say in Norfolk
jackdawsson
26 Apr 2019
Let the trend be your friend Sara, Thanks. Some valid points. Indeed, I’m not primarily a fundamentalist. However, fundamentals & especially changing data are important. Ditto TA. But neither, IMO, is gospel. Factors like fickle sentiment also play a part. Hence stocks frequently get overbought or oversold & why markets tend to be irrational. SaraRacano: 15% growth in 4 years = 3.35% growth per year between 5 major players. You have the Co-operative as well. Sainsbury´s would be lucky to get 1% growth a year, Is this enough? Much of this growth is likely to be in small locals not your big hypermarkets. Population growth doesn´t equal prosperity, you need to add in demographics (an OAP time bomb). SBRY’s potential growth isn’t limited to just food. That’s without taking into account likely future food inflation & that SBRY’s convenience stores see above average growth. SBRY also sells a wide range of non-food items & provide various financial services. - As an aside, no question of the positive impact of growing populations on sectors like food. Whilst indeed population growth doesn’t guarantee a growing global economy (realistically, we can expect periods of greater economic turmoil), look at the most populous nations like China & India. Evidently they’ve certainly grown substantially for many years. They’re still growing by percentages that the West can only envy. Much of Africa may soon follow as more citizens there also embrace free enterprise & improving technology. Senior citizens (OAPs) may pose a time-bomb, as you say. Though many of that generation, & certainly those in more prosperous nations like UK, also have significant surplus cash. Collectively, their financial activity adds considerable stimulus to any economy. But there are better ways of dealing with this before any time-bomb or crisis explodes. Do OAPs really need their considerable perks in added benefits, such as free TV licences, heating allowances, free bus travel? Can we have a fairer taxation system, mindful of many generous tax-cuts given to wealthiest citizens since Thatcher’s time? Does UK really need to remain a nuclear power & bear that huge expense before the welfare of its more vulnerable citizens? Just a few examples. Governments will one day have to deal with such major issues, stop pandering to the grey vote & get real. That’ll surely happen by force of circumstance if nothing else. SaraRacano: I would have assumed that a pure fundamentalist would be that of contrarian (anyone as well as jackdawson have any views on this?). Can you be a contrarian & a trender at the same time? Interesting questions & I shall leave that for other posters to respond to more fully, mindful that many have moved to other sites since ii changed to their current format last July. - GL.
SaraRacano
26 Apr 2019
Let the trend be your friend I would like to see a probability of chance from investors that are contrarian to those that go with the flow. I always presumed that chartists go with the flow they are not fundamentally contrarian. I would have assumed that a pure fundamentalist would be that of contrarian (anyone as well as jackdawson have any views on this?). Can you be a contrarian & a trender at the same time? Value investing is contrarian but this hasn´t had a too greater success ratio over the previous years. There are value (contrarian) institutional funds out there. You don´t act like a fundamentalist that can sit & wait, you appear to be flow oriiented you see a profit & you book it. Your chances of success are higher. 15% growth in 4 years = 3.35% growth per year between 5 major players. You have the Co-operative as well. Sainsbury´s would be lucky to get 1% growth a year, Is this enough? Much of this growth is likely to be in small locals not your big hypermarkets. Population growth doesn´t equal prosperity, you need to add in demographics (an OAP time bomb). Forget the U.S. federal government deficit this guy raises some very serious questions about consumer debt, the same applies in the UK
jackdawsson
26 Apr 2019
Let the trend be your friend SaraRacano: ¨Firstly I think you need to look at historical share buy backs going back to 1980. Share buy backs are funded mostly by increasing leverage. Basically directors remuneration is based on SP performance. Look what happens when share buy backs end, the SP goes down basically any company grossly over-pays for its shares. GE, is just one of a vast number of illustrations. Lloyds, excess profits? Isn´t it still partly nationalized? All those massive fines for dodgy practises, fleecing their customers. Sara, LLOY has been 100% free of government ownership since circa May 2017. Also, banking sector obviously underwent seismic & systemic changes after 2008’s financial crisis. All UK banks are now far better capitalised as demanded by regulatory measures. Central banks are also more likely to make further interventions to provide added liquidity in future periods of crisis. Indeed, all banks are leveraged to varying degrees. But unlike more risky global debt & its added variables that all investment banks are constantly exposed to, at least LLOY is mostly a binary bet on UK PLC. Granted that’s also far from risk-free, hence my planned continued exits, but LLOY should be okay from current levels if looked at longer-term, bar of course deteriorating macro-factors delaying matters. SaraRacano: You´re dealing with irrational markets, does common sense really come into the equation? What were the fundamentals 16 years back, how does those fundamentals relate to today´s fundamentals? e.g. Sainsbury´s may have had a p/e of 8, today it may have a p/e of 14, so historically Sainsbury´s shares look very pricey. This is just an example but you do pull words out of thin air without any using data. To the contrary, I bought SBRY largely on technical data as evidenced in chart linked to my buying reasons. Precisely because markets are often “irrational†& sentiment-driven, flexibility is indispensable to reading them. FWIW, I’ve made most of my money by not following all rules & adages as gospel, including occasional selective averaging down. Especially with real shares. That’s been very profitable for me over years. However, it’s not recommended so much with leverage. But my general point stands: being held back by holding too many dogmatic views isn’t the best approach to markets. Likewise, you’ll appreciate that existing data is often half the picture. Markets always look ahead. Food sector is a growing market. Forecasts remain bullish for very significant further growth ahead. SBRY remains a major player. A position not under any threat today as even discounters are now struggling to finance further cost-cutting without hurting profit margins. [link] At a tangent, despite your consistent bearishness on other BBs, IMO, just as human populations rise, so will global economic growth, be it with occasional periods of slowdown. That’ll most probably continue even long after we’re dead & when humans colonise other planets. Is any of this 100% guaranteed? Of course not. Humans are highly fallible. For example, their capacity for war & mass destruction means that nothing is ever totally risk-free. But bar those extreme exceptions, IMO, being on the long side of the market is often to be on the right side of it. History confirms that, despite transient periods of panic-selling. Thanks for other comments & GL.
SaraRacano
26 Apr 2019
Let the trend be your friend ¨Firstly I think you need to look at historical share buy backs going back to 1980. Share buy backs are funded mostly by increasing leverage. Basically directors remuneration is based on SP performance. Look what happens when share buy backs end, the SP goes down basically any company grossly over-pays for its shares. GE, is just one of a vast number of illustrations. Lloyds, excess profits? Isn´t it still partly nationalized? All those massive fines for dodgy practises, fleecing their customers. The bell shaped curve. " hardy anyone would risk buying near technical bottom". No one knows a technical bottom until long after the event. You could have said the same about many shares hitting lows only to go lower. Not many people call absolute lows or highs, hardly any consistently. I am still confident about Tesco, we have been at these levels not so long ago! Can it go much higher, I personally doubt it. It has long been argued that one of the UK supermarkets will fold. What are Sainsbury´s margins? 2%-3%? There is hardly any room for error. You need to look at debt structures. You need to look at the trades & volumes for a technical argument. You´re dealing with irrational markets, does common sense really come into the equation? What were the fundamentals 16 years back, how does those fundamentals relate to today´s fundamentals? e.g. Sainsbury´s may have had a p/e of 8, today it may have a p/e of 14, so historically Sainsbury´s shares look very pricey. This is just an example but you do pull words out of thin air without any using data.
jackdawsson
25 Apr 2019
Let the trend be your friend Sara, I imagine the gist of your comment won’t surprise many. However, some of these oft-quoted market adages can become almost worthless truisms without also employing some flexibility & basic common sense. Otherwise, hardy anyone would risk buying near technical bottoms, just as many continue getting caught out buying near tops for following these adages as gospel. IMO, technically & fundamentally, SBRY’s SP at 16 year lows on the basis of today’s confirmation that the increasingly unlikely merger with ASDA is dead after all, seems well oversold. I suspect you may be as mistaken about this as you were about TSCO on their BB. As for LLOY: I’ll be gradually exiting the rest of what I hold there & all UK banks for reasons already expounded more fully on LLOY’s BB. However, it’s hardly manipulation when a company uses excess profits to reduce its number of shares in market. Especially when it’s also creating loads of new shares every year in generous director bonuses. - Cheers.
SaraRacano
25 Apr 2019
Let the trend be your friend Come on the Lloyds SP has been grossly manipulated by share buy backs. The number 1 rule for small investors is to stay clear of stock where there are share buy backs, any such company become the market maker, The trend for the last 11 years for banks SP has been down. I can remember in the late autumn of 1999 but it could have been early 2000, two “old†guys buying Sainsbury´s shares at 300p after the profits warning started to arrive thinking that they were a bargain. In 20 years they have lost 30% of the capital (not including dividends). You have the old Tesco problem, selling your assests & buying them back leasehold which grossly distorts true trading over the medium run. Perhaps one might do better than look at debt levels at Sainsbury´s before deciding whether they are indeed a recovery stock. The food industry might be a growth industry abeit a very light one say 2% a year but the competition is increbibly strong, Tesco on the way back to past glories (hmmm). I still think that if you´re looking for a play in this sector, it would be Tesco simply by trends (it´s 25% off lows) so historically/technically it could be well be judged as a recovery play. Although historically Tesco looks grossly over priced for what it is & the dangers of another UK recession, it´s so long over due even I have given up waiting for this.
jackdawsson
25 Apr 2019
Buy at 213.89 regardless: A great buy in price You done well talking your Lloyds money of the table and moving here IMHO Hi Regardless, Thanks. Though as usual I’m taking little for granted, if this isn’t yet oversold, it surely can’t be far off. As for LLOY & other UK banks, as mentioned elsewhere, I only changed my mind more recently & started reducing due to the ongoing impasse in external macro-factors that have little to do with those actual stocks. As you know, the uncertainty & chaos UK faces has no obvious easy fix. It may be resolved in a few months, or it could drag on for much longer. It may even lead to a change of government. Banks will be particularly sensitive to that. As I say, no predictions made as I’m no wiser than the average Joe on this. Much comes down to personal targets, timeframe, risk-appetite, etc. That applies to SBRY, LLOY or any other stock. By the by, LLOY has recent resistance below 67. It needs a VG update to crack that, so here’s hoping that deliver. If so, I’ll consider selling my last 2 tranches there. But as we’ve been reminded once again by BARC’s mediocre report today, nothing is guaranteed in this game. But you know that as well as anyone. - Regards & GL.
