Sainsbury (J) Live Discussion

jackdawsson 04 Jun 2019

Buy at 215.96 SaraRacano: I suppose this time next year it will be all different for Sainsbury´s with unicorns flying over every store farting rainbows & you will prove me wrong Jackdawson! Sara, It’s not about proving anyone “wrong”. Never has been. Most traders avoid petty point-scoring. Meaningless. P/E ratios tend to be a fluid measure anyway with various sites having different ratios. Take for example this site with all FTSE 100 stocks rated by P/E as of last week. SBRY are in top 20. [link] Screen Shot 2019-06-04 at 11.29.46.jpg1018x968 514 KB OTOH, Morning Star’s site, often referred to by many for fundamentals, shows SBRY’s P/E as 16.28. A simple Google will confirm so. As for debt: we’ve touched upon it before. Granted that SBRY’s is too high, it’s still much lower than major sector rival TSCO. Perspective is key. Not that I disagree about SBRY & other large food retailers facing significant challenges, despite UK’s food market expected to grow by 14.8% by 2023. But for any major player like SBRY, that’s still a significant slice of a growing market to contest. Look at many other sectors & where’s the forecast real growth at similar rates, as opposed to, for example, customers simply replacing older mobile phones or other old items? Maybe of interest to SBRY holders, short positions on SBRY down to 3.48% as I write. They had been falling for over a year, bar a recent spike on failed ASDA merger. [link] Another salutary reminder that there are few 100% guarantees in stock markets as Woodford’s Flagship Fund runs into trouble. Investor withdrawals & other activity currently suspended. - GL. BBC News Top stockpicker suspends flagship fund Investment guru Neil Woodford stops investors withdrawing funds after Kent County Council sought £250m.

SaraRacano 04 Jun 2019

Buy at 215.96 Such fundamentals hardly justify a p/e of 20+. I think you´re looking at a timespan of more than a “few months” here. The Share Magazine article is hardly a piece that would inspire confidence with a stock that trades at 20x earnings. It´s margins are falling alarmingly to wafer thin, it´s losing market share at a rapid rate. & we haven´t touched on the debt! The supermarket sector has been a bearish one since 2008. You´re seeing a price senistive customer more than ever which should be a worry to you. What happens when the recession comes to the UK, if it hasn´t already? I suppose this time next year it will be all different for Sainsbury´s with unicorns flying over every store farting rainbows & you will prove me wrong Jackdawson!

jackdawsson 03 Jun 2019

Buy at 215.96 Patently, last week’s poor Kantar data for all big food retailers, on top of an ongoing bearish macro-climate, has hit SPs throughout this sector. Ditto elsewhere for other reasons. It’s also put paid to any notion of me booking more gains here as quickly as previously. SBRY now a firm hold for me. Realistically, probably for at least a few months more. With SBRY’s ex-date on 6th June, will book dividends after all contrary to earlier hopes of exiting before then. So it sometimes goes. - GLA. [link]

jackdawsson 03 Jun 2019

Bonds trading red SaraRacano: The Dow set to fall 6 weeks in a row, hasn´t happened since the last “Great” Recession. Sara, Bear goggles much? But what’s new across markets in a wider context? We saw similar indicators & far worse in December. Look at DOW trends over just the last year in chart below. Note the sharp lows in December for same reasons (ie. fears of escalating trade wars), then speed & strength of recovery. Are things really much different this time? Probably not as any protracted tariff war is internecine. It’ll hurt US economic interests as well as China’s, besides spreading globally. Trump can’t afford to lose America’s big business for long if he wants a 2nd term. So, IMO, no reason for undue alarm. However, probably wise to deleverage some positions, or else cover, for things can always get worse before they improve again. Screen Shot 2019-06-03 at 12.46.40.png848x873 47.5 KB

SaraRacano 03 Jun 2019

Bonds trading red The Dow set to fall 6 weeks in a row, hasn´t happened since the last “Great” Recession. The amount of yield curve invesions not seen since the last Great Recession. On Friday, US Tresuary yields plunged at the mid to long end of the curve providing the most inversions since the last recession, this is the biggest recession warning since 2007. So many conditions reminiscent of the last financial crisis. Even Michael Watson, at Morgan Stanley thinks there is far more risk to these markets than many realise. Manufactoring activity at a 9 year low. US core capital goods tumble. US house prices falling.

SaraRacano 22 May 2019

All the trappings of Balfour Beatty & Carillion Isn´t this what Balfour Beatty chose pursuing profitability rather than growth at any price? Was the Sainsbury´s / Asda merger planned out of desperation rather than create a lean outfit? Same sort of thing a sector with paper thin margins, in Sainsbury´s case this looks worrying. NAV, counts for very little without M&A. A company is hardly likely to sell off its working assets. I doubt very much whether any VC would be interested after Boots. Today, you could have made 8% but this time you showed emotion. you got caught up in the glare of blue. Basically because the posts are seperated to highlight critrical points, not to get caught up in posts with 2k threads.

jackdawsson 22 May 2019

Grostesquely over priced SaraRacano: Why silliness? Talk about sing when your winning, those gains soon went! I doubt we will be hearing from you much. the points I am making are pure fundamental points, namely risk v´s reward. So you went in solely looking to make about 6%, from a risk point of view was it justified? Do you understand the concept of risk? From your postings I would say not which is a worry (notebly for yourself) Sara, No-one sang when winning. This BB was dead before my 213.89 buy. You arrived soon after to mock. That’s evident on this BB. When my first buy booked 10% profit in days, your embarrassed ego was so apoplectic you started to fill this BB with personalised digs. You did similar on TSCO’s BB. I post for my own reasons. For eg. most of my trades are on UKX. That BB is dead. I’ve taken hundreds of points profit since 1st March. One UKX long underwater. No-one else posts nor cares. It’s like a private BB. Ditto here previously. You, OTOH, have offered little but attempted petty digs befitting a spoilt teenager. Hence my point. Why start new threads with same comments? Not least some with same titles opened within 24 hours. If everyone did that, I imagine people would soon tire of endless repetition. Undeniably there’s a bear-case, however time-limited, for all stocks in downtrends. But to others, like me, those falling SPs may offer longer-term value. Some falls are cyclical. MRW & TSCO both had very poor years not long ago. Both got oversold & are well up from previous lows. Debt is relative to all stocks. I’ve said before, TSCO’s debt is over twice SBRY’s. But technically there’s bear-case here now as at new lows. But fundamentally SBRY seems oversold. That’s unless you selectively ignore data. For eg. look at SBRY’s NAV, including net tangible: 336.46 & 383.87. All in all, my view of SBRY hasn’t changed since my last buy 2 weeks ago. As stated, I remain unfazed. So troll on, but you’re wasting your own time by wallowing in pathetic pettiness. IMHO, far better that you focus on your own trades elsewhere. Screen Shot 2019-05-22 at 12.34.09.png717x673 96.4 KB

SaraRacano 22 May 2019

Grostesquely over priced Why silliness? Talk about sing when your winning, those gains soon went! I doubt we will be hearing from you much. the points I am making are pure fundamental points, namely risk v´s reward. So you went in solely looking to make about 6%, from a risk point of view was it justified? Do you understand the concept of risk? From your postings I would say not which is a worry (notebly for yourself) The only thing I am highlightening is the potential risks, so now you see 15% upside, I see 20%+ downside here at the very least. There are so many contradictions within your posts not least is that you´re trying to stick fundamentals & chartism together, it just doesn´t go. I would argue that BOTH fundamentals & momentum are against you here. Basically you argue food is a growth industry but how can Sainsbury´s capture any growth when it is bombed out with debt? The Sainsbury´s model only grows with M&A!!! This is why I keep on at you about making sweeping statements without much evidence of fact to baxk it up! The share is starting now to behave rationally now with a lot further falls to go here. I look forward to you buying another tranche, you´ll regret that as well. Come on guys, anyone prove to me that debt is not the big problem here! The adjustments will really come when % rates have to rise, absolute carnage & bond defaults galore.

jackdawsson 22 May 2019

Grostesquely over priced Sara, More silliness from you. Two threads with almost the same title started within 24 hours on the same BB. Transparent much! Presumably, making the same point in your recently started Talk about over priced thread was a step too difficult for you? To others: my final comment on this BB until I book more gains here, or maybe even add another tranche before XD on 6th June. Probably for a preliminary target of circa 240, so perhaps a longer-term hold into later this year or even 2020.

SaraRacano 22 May 2019

Grostesquely over priced This debt is a very serious one, one that could break the entire company. Debt 7x earnings before tax. A company that can only grow by merger or acquisition so the big question how does it get to grips with such high debt & anemic profits? Trading look incredibly weak. Take out these property disposals & what figures do you come to? The dividend solely covered 1.3x pre-tax earnings on the back of enormous debt. There were huge warnings over the Argos deal at the time with ballooning debt levels. Sainsbury´s since has been very quiet om the aquisition. Basically the dividend will be crushed but paying back 600m is a just a start, the debt still appears very uncomfortable. From a risk point of view, it must be viewed as incredibly high. Why would any sane person pay a 23 p/e for this share? This Argos aquisition so far doesn´t appear to have paid off for the group.

jackdawsson 21 May 2019

Why 160p frog_in_a_tree: Unusually harsh from you Jack! I agree that Sara is a bt of a doom and gloom merchant on investment. She is far, far worse on the issue of vaccination where I fervently hope that her friends and family pay her no heed. Hi Fiat, I respectfully disagree. IMO, not all that harsh as my comment relates to a poster’s various calls on a stock &, in context, a number of threads on this BB started by said poster seemed personalised, sought little more than to score points & to gloat at a mistimed buy. I did add a smiley which, however ambiguous, can also indicate a bit of banter & that I wasn’t being entirely serious. Regards.

frog_in_a_tree 21 May 2019

Why 160p Unusually harsh from you Jack! I agree that Sara is a bt of a doom and gloom merchant on investment. She is far, far worse on the issue of vaccination where I fervently hope that her friends and family pay her no heed. Cheers, Frog

jackdawsson 21 May 2019

Why 160p SaraRacano: Why? Why? Why? Do I keep thinking 160p? This baby is tanking! Sara, So much for your typical doom ’n’ gloom forecast for SBRY from just 1 day ago. Evidently, more noise & bollards. Today SBRY the FTSE 100’s highest climber, closing up by 9.3p. Screen Shot 2019-05-21 at 16.38.11.png716x227 24.5 KB Some friendly, rare advice in return for your ample advising of others on this BB alone: if ever you decide to take up trading markets, naturally don’t follow my advice, but for heaven’s sake don’t follow your own advice either. IMHO, take things very slowly to begin with. Best start with a dummy account. Frankly, that’s about your level. - GL.

jackdawsson 21 May 2019

Why 160p SaraRacano: Starting to feel the going getting tougher? Starting to learn that this a very high risk statergy you persue. How can stating truths be acting troll like? I quite like Sainsbury´s! this could well go bust! Sara, More silliness from you. No pressure here. I’ve never indicated otherwise as reflects my true state of mind. I may even add more shares later. Still undecided. However, my point stands as evidenced by all the threads you’ve started on this particular BB. Some of it is nothing less than arrant trolling. I’m a guy of moderate temperament, who’s open to taking on board various well put views, bullish or bearish. But in rare cases, I think ii have made an error in not restoring their former ignore option for those who frequently misuse these BBs for their own personal egos & persistent trolling.

SaraRacano 21 May 2019

Why 160p Starting to feel the going getting tougher? Starting to learn that this a very high risk statergy you persue. How can stating truths be acting troll like? I quite like Sainsbury´s! this could well go bust!