KALAN
10 Apr 2018
Re: Chart Just posted something similar on LSE Michu - I think that institutions may be waiting for it all to be officially complete before risking other's money.Correction on my previous post - the bait is 2.6% of the company's shares not 7% as I was using share numbers prior to the deal.Completion of the takeover, commitment of the CEO, a maiden dividend and success in the drills should see a big re-rate here.Got my FRR money in the bank and tempted to add more here and also at JLP - but waiting for a fall back to 2.6p there or a break above 3.07p whichever comes first.68p would be 150% profit from where we are now.
Nice to Michu
10 Apr 2018
Re: Chart I guess you are getting a bargain here Kalan. I'm tempted to add more again but haven't yet...Generally I'm bamboozled by the significant ongoing s/p weakness here and am wondering if the s/p is being managed by whomever for whatever reason? eg I'm not sure if the Seven transaction has formally/technically fully completed yet.. from memory they were talking approx. 5 months from Nov/Dec... for full legal/regulatory completion.. i.e. this month ish .. and maybe it's something to do with s/p held back however until completion ...
KALAN
10 Apr 2018
68p target price for Knott Incentivisation scheme - Knott gets 7% of the company's shares if he gets the sp to 68p - seems fair enough to me.Oh and he has to remain in the company to be entitled to the shares and he cannot just stage manage a spike and sell as he is locked in for 3 months thereafter.
KALAN
09 Apr 2018
Chart A double bottom in at 26.6p?Stochastic on its knees at 5 (below 20 is oversold).MacD scraping the bottom.rate of change from negative to horizontal.RSI stiil pointing downwards but low at around 30.This share is so unloved at the moment - so bought some more this morning and will add a few more when I cash out of FRR soon.Done the hard thing and bought something no-one else seems to want.With cash producing assets and 3 drills to come - one already underway the fundamentals look positive too - either I am missing something that is very negative or I have just scooped a bargain.
Nice to Michu
06 Apr 2018
Re: Gut feeling there's always a reason rpg7 
.. but balance is always good too imho and yes this has a very poor performer since coming out of suspension - and indeed in the price it came out of suspension at too - with what plenty including me perceive to be a good deal.. again, this is a sector wide issue imho.. institutional money has not flown back into this sector so far, like it could - very - readily have done, unfortunately.. hopefully this changes soon... and IF Brent poo stays north of $65 in and there's no serious macro market correction it very likely will imho..
rpg7
06 Apr 2018
Re: Gut feeling There must be a reason for the lack of interest,just saying for balance.
KALAN
04 Apr 2018
Re: Gut feeling Correction - the sp is going to be walked down for no apparent reason on small volume to the point where it is now massively oversold.Must get my guts checked out.
KALAN
01 Apr 2018
Gut feeling we are going to see a big move up here in the next week or so - charts and indicators all looking good for a take off. Spudding may be the trigger for the sp to start to move.3 drills with 93% chance of success each, which is over 99% combined probability of at least one successful drill.Add into that a planned maiden dividend of between 3% and 6% and we could well be onto a winner here.
Novy kluk
27 Mar 2018
Re: Retail Investor update Nice to Michu, I fully agree with your views in your last Post!I didn't phone-in to today's update........wasn't practical on a mobile from Central Europe. Thought there would be some outline of proceedings on the ADVFN BB, but alas not. So FWIW, these are the very brief highlights I noted during Andrew Knott's interview with Malcolm Graham-Wood on 14th March............At the end of the discussion MGW asked, "What news-flow can be expected". The reply;* There will be confirmation of the deal completion for the Sever Energy assets. "Obviously" one might say.* Niger drilling campaign results.* Information implied, for "various opportunities for bolt-on acquisitionswhich will create additional value". AK was then asked, "Where would you hope to be in 12 months time?" The reply;* Having news on; - VOLUME (implied increasing of course). In a subsequent interview he stated that output has increased from 14,000 bopd at the start of the Severn negotiations, to 20,000 bopd now. - PRICING (increasing). - PAYMENTS (being made.......but now guaranteed by the World Bank anyway).* Demonstrated cash-flow - the onus is now on the company to perform.* A successful drilling campaign in Niger. He implied he hopes for "early success" which will justify extending the campaign.* To have demonstrated the Nigerian assets have "bedded-down", with rising production, rising prices and "other opportunities", and * To have paid a dividend!GLTA NK.
Nice to Michu
26 Mar 2018
Re: Retail Investor update Fair play to them for doing this.. and hopefully it opens RI's eyes to what I believe is currently a very undervalued stock......but it's more Institutional money involvement again that will really help push the s/p up here imho.. and alas the switching of institutional monies into the O&G sector has been incredibly slow imho... parking Niger drills for a moment; this is now a very meaningful producer and with the price of O&G meaningfully further up again since this - very good imho - deal was completed I'm shocked that the s/p is at this - frighteningly low imho - level .. in fairness, it's not specific to this company, it's pretty much sector wide.. and comes down bitter previous experiences resulting in a current lack of trust/belief in O&g'ers and PoO/G imho... still, I expect/hope things will change very soon, indeed if they don't, generally, I'll move beyond annoyed and enter a scared phase ...
Novy kluk
23 Mar 2018
Retail Investor update Savannah Petroleum will host a conference call for retail shareholders at 10.30am (GMT) on Tuesday 27th March 2018. The focus of the call will be on the Company's upcoming three well drilling campaign in Niger, as well as the expected acquisition by Savannah of certain assets from Seven Energy International Limited.If you would like to participate in the event, please contact Ollie Mills at Celicourt Communications via email at [email protected]
KALAN
22 Mar 2018
Re: VOX Podcast Cash for exploration, dividends and further investment!Debt paid at 10p in the pound aprox for Seven assets.Drills 93% chance of success.Might add a few more if movement elsewhere goes my way and allows me to liberate cash.
Nice to Michu
22 Mar 2018
Re: VOX Podcast Thanks for posting tsfmsAn impressive chap and I have very high hopes for this share.. to have him and his board holding lots of shares - and at higher averages than current s/p - is a very good thing too, not least because this isn't the norm on AIM, contributing to AIM often being a cesspit imho... Niger drills are upon us now and so the s/p will hopefully wake up soon.. it's meaningfully too low now imho...
KALAN
12 Mar 2018
Re: Drilling campaign about to start - A... Just lack of awareness Michu - with a 90% chance of success on each hole (which others have had in this area)that gives us a 99.9% chance of at least one well being a winner.Even a pessimistic 75% chance of success (field wide probability) gives us a 98.5% chance of at least one well being a success. Can't imagine any other drill campaign being that close to certainty and to back it up they have been meticulous with the surveys and choosing the sweet spots.The sp was over 40p when the drills were previously anticipated - the reverse takeover has muddied the waters and confused 'investors'.The drills are simple - imminent and very very very likely to succeed - drill it and they will come.
II Editor
12 Mar 2018
NEW ARTICLE: The Oil Man: President Energy, Echo Energy, Savannah, Frontera "WTI $62.04 +$1.92, Brent $65.49 +$1.88, Diff -$3.45 -4c, NG $2.73 -2cIt seems so long ago that I wrote a 'normal' blog that I can hardly remember how to, the Ipad has been in action in airport lounges, hotel rooms and various offices in the last ..."[link]
