FoxRed
20 Aug 2015
New presentation and investor New presentation is up - shows Legal & General have now invested too.
Doodlebugger
12 Aug 2015
Slowly Sinking On the absence of news I guess. The lack of any whisper of a farm in is probably causing the price to drift – I thought it would stay at 40p ahead of an announcement. Savannah are asking around seismic companies to gauge interest re their work programme, so some movement is ongoing but really the farm-in needs to be nailed and soon
FoxRed
31 Jul 2015
PSC signed for R3/R4 Guys - Announcement out this morning. Savannah has signed a PSC with the Government of Niger for its recently acquired R3/R4 permits.R3/R4 Production Sharing Contract Signature Savannah Petroleum is pleased to announce the signing of a Production Sharing Contract ("PSC"
by Savannah Petroleum Niger and the Government of Niger represented by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum for the R3/R4 license area (the "R3/R4 PSC". Accordingly, the US$28m payment relating to the R3/R4 PSC signature bonus will shortly be made to the State of Niger.As previously disclosed at the time of Savannah's recent US$36m placing, the R3/R4 PSC is located in the area Savannah refers to as the "Agadem Rift Basin", and is in close proximity to the R1/R2 PSC area. Savannah has currently mapped 29 leads across the R3/R4 PSC area, with a range of mapped closure sizes similar to existing discoveries in the basin. The principal terms of the R3/R4 PSC are similar to that of the R1/R2 PSC, with the exception that:- The free carried State of Niger's Public Participating Interest is set at 15% as compared to the 20% level of the R1/R2 PSC;- The minimum work programme requires the acquisition of 750 sq km 3D seismic and the drilling of 2 wells during the initial period of the exclusive exploration authorisation (EEA), 500 sq km 3D seismic and 2 wells during the first renewal period of the EAA, and 250 sq km 3D seismic and 2 wells during the second renewal period of the EAA;- 60% of the signature bonus is deemed to be cost recoverable as compared to 40% for the R1/R2 PSC. Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Petroleum, said: "The signing of the R3/R4 PSC is another landmark transaction for Savannah. We have now licensed c.50% of the Agadem Rift Basin, which the Board believes places the Company in a very strong position for the future given our assessment of the scale, risk profile and cost structure of our assets. I would again like to thank the Government of Niger for awarding the PSC to us, and for their support over the past three years. Savannah will now move to commence what we expect to be an aggressive exploration programme over our licenses which we hope will deliver material benefits for all of our stakeholders over the coming years."
FoxRed
17 Jul 2015
Savannah sign PSC - Reuters Media suggesting the Gov. of Niger has signed a product sharing agreement with Savannah Petroleum.Reuters NewsThe government of Niger has approved separate oil production and sharing agreements with UK-based firm Savannah Petroleum PLC and a subsidiary of Algeria's state energy firm Sonatrach, a statement from the cabinet said on Thursday.The deal with Sonatrach is over the Kaffra bloc in the northern region of Agadez, while the agreement with Savannah covers Agadem blocs R3 and R4, in the south east of the country near oil-producing neighbour Chad.Savannah already operates in Agadem blocs R1 and R2.The government statement, which followed a cabinet meeting, did not give any further details.Niger is one of Africa's newest oil producers and has awarded exploration contracts as part of a drive to attract a broader range of investors into its nascent oil industry.The West African state began pumping oil in 2011 as part of a $5 billion deal with China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) to develop the Agadem block. It is expected to export around 80,000 barrels per day via a pipeline through neighbouring Chad and Cameroon from 2016.
FoxRed
14 Jul 2015
Miabaud All - Check out this updated note from Mirabaud on Savannah Petroleum. TP is now up to 125p a share!Savannah Petroleum – Land grabLast week Savannah (SAVP) announced a US$36m placing at 38p/shr, a slight premium to the prior day’s close. The proceeds are intended to be used principally to acquire the under-explored R3/R4 PSC area which lies in the Agadem basin immediately to the south of Savannah’s R1/R2 PSC and previously formed part of CNPC’s Agadem licence prior to relinquishment (like R1/R2). The acquisition significantly expands Savannah’s footprint giving it control of ~50% of the Agadem basin – with CNPC holding the balance – and sews up the remaining unlicenced acreage, strengthening Savannah’s hand in future farm-out discussions. In addition to the placing, Savannah’s independent auditor CGG Robertson has doubled its estimate of risked resources on R1/R2 to 1.2 bn bbls, and verified SAVP’s internal volumetrics for the 14 mapped prospects within the 3D area. Taken as whole, we view last week’s events as both value accretive and strategically important for Savannah. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and increase our target price 9% to 125p/shr (from 115p/shr previously).
FoxRed
08 Jul 2015
Analyst reaction to today's news Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced a comprehensive update on its R1/R2 licence in Niger. The RNS covers three key points: 1) A more than doubling of independent auditor CGG’s risked prospective resource estimate from 573 mmbbls to 1,191 mmbbls. The key driver here has been the inclusion of the deeper Upper Cretaceous play, which was omitted at IPO, but is now better understood thanks to new geophysical analysis, and reported discoveries in CNPC’s adjacent acreage. The new estimates are made using a statistical approach (as before), but rather than use a basic resource density model, which extrapolates the discovered resource in CNPC’s acreage over Savannah’s, the model is far more scientific, drawing on the findings of the recently conducted FTG survey and recently acquired legacy seismic. CGG estimates the chances of success of the two prospective horizons (Eocene and Upper Cretaceous) at just under one-in-two. Separately, CGG has also reviewed SAVP’s previously reported 3D defined prospects, and considers the 14 prospects to contain some 259 mmbbls (unrisked gross prospective resources). This represents a 20% increase from Savannah’s previous estimates and is driven by a higher expected recovery factor (30% versus 25% previously). 2) SAVP has updated its R1/R2 development concept and economic model which has been verified by CGG. The proposed hub and spoke development approach envisages five fields tied back to a central processing facility. The base case assumes 75 mmbbls recoverable and peak production of 25 kbopd with opex and capex pegged at US$7/bbl and US$8/bbl respectively (in 2015, real terms). Furthermore, following talks with Niger’s Petroleum Ministry over the proposed export pipeline, SAVP now estimates a central case for pipeline transportation costs of US$16/bbl, compared to US$18/bbl at the time of the IPO. Incorporating these factors into the model, SAVP estimates that each development cluster has an NPV10 of US$4.5/bbl at US$70/bbl Brent and a breakeven of US$43/bbl. 3) Thirdly, SAVP has also announced that it has received environmental authorisation to drill and shoot seismic in the R1/R2 block, clearing the way for exploration to commence in H2 2015 once a farm-out has been secured. Today’s news is further demonstration of the progress that SAVP has made since last year’s IPO. In particular, the doubling in resources to some 1.2 bn bbls demonstrates the scale of the exploration opportunity in the R1/R2 licence and should be a significant factor in farm-out talks that are expected to intensify over the coming weeks and months. While the farm-out market has been impacted by cuts to industry budgets, we firmly believe that R1/R2 will attract industry finance due to its scale, low geological risk profile (historic chances of success in the basin average c.75%) and low upfront costs (wells cost US$4-5m each) - all of which are key selling points in the current climate.
FoxRed
07 Jul 2015
RBC initiates on SAVP.. International News – HeadlinesSavannah Petroleum (SAVP.L): Initiating coverage: Second-Mover AdvantageSavannah offers the upside potential of a 'basin opening' explorer, but with less 'frontier risk'. The company plans to drill in Niger's under-explored Agadem Basin, which is being opened up (geologically and commercially) by CNPC, which has discovered 975mmbbl and plans to commence oil exports in 2017.In 2008 CNPC was awarded a vast, 27,500 sq km, block that encompassed effectively all of the Agadem Basin in southeast Niger. But, given a requirement under the terms of its PSC, to relinquish half of the block after just four years, many of the basin's structures remain undrilled. Savannah stepped in quickly to relicense 8,400 sq km – Block R1/R2. Niger has relatively attractive fiscal terms, with initial Cost Oil and Profit Oil allocations of 70% and 60%, respectively. Assuming the completion in 2017 of CNPC's oil pipeline through Chad, we calculate that new discoveries in Niger have higher (PV15%) valuations – $4.40/bbl – than comparable discoveries in Kenya ($4.00/bbl) or Uganda ($2.30/bbl).Given access to CNPC's 3D seismic, Savannah has mapped 14 drill-ready targets with cumulative prospective resources of 215mmbbl. Having completed an FTG survey in H1/15 the company plans to shoot additional 3D to expand its prospect inventory – CNPC's 75% drilling success rate demonstrates that 3D is crucial to unlocking the basin's potential. Savannah is opportunity-rich but cash-constrained; as a result management intends to negotiate a multi-well farm-out deal. In H2/15 we expect the company to announce that it is being carried through a large sounding but financially restrained (14-well, $70m) drilling campaign. The scale of any farm-out deal drives our valuation; but based upon the assumption that Savannah exchanges half of its 80% participating interest for a free-carry through the drilling of its 215mmbbl prospect inventory, we have calculated upside/risk for the campaign of +180p/-49p per share.
Doodlebugger
12 Jun 2015
£40k trade today - no price movement? Seems odd that this posted trade at 11.51 a.m. has resulted in no share price movement11:51:23 39.5p 100,000 £39,500 39.5p 39.5p
