DanDaDan
01 Mar 2017
Late with News. About to blow.That is the nod and wink news. Tweet tweet....Lets hope they are right.The herd will follow next, IMO.Up we go....GLA
Jitter
25 Jan 2017
From ZENGAS on LSE... 10.1.17Page 8 latest broker valuation gives 155p per 126 mmboe net.So using those figures -1700 mmbls recoverable = £21.00 possible value but needing some modest dilution later down the road for future drilling funds if going it alone.Farm out could bring significant cash impact injection depending on % amount farmed out perhaps $100m-$200m of drilling funds such is the opportunity and high COS spread over a good number of prospects.Should a 50% farmout occur -A 50% stake gives an overall 850 mmbls net or £10.50 target and less future dilution.Eocene targets given as 79% COS and overall average including other stacked targets give 67% COS. You donÕt get much better than that.Chinese success was 975 mmbls and up to 80% success rate. If SAVP were to get just 25-35% success rate and on a 50% farm out, share price target has to be worth 260 -360p + impact of any farm value in negating need for future finance re drilling.Any early success from the fully funded programme for the initial wells could forward price in some of the potential huge future upside for additional success - imo over £2 - ie similarly as per Sound Energy at £520m m/cap (no reserves declared other than having 2 well tests and now on an EWT).
Simbrad
26 May 2016
Northland Capital Partners's note on Savannah Resources (SAV), out this morning on Research Tree. "Savannah Resources has completed gravity surveys over three areas; VTEM 13 (Block4), Ghayth (Block4) and Sarami West (Block 5) that contains 12 VTEM and EM anomalies. These areas were previously drill tested in 2015 defining alteration systems that confirmed the potential for VMS mineralisation the results of the gravity surveys will further refine drill targets. The two stage 2,930m drill programme continues as planned at the Maqail South and Mahab 4 prospects (Block 5) and Dog’s Bone and Bayda prospects (Block4)..."
Simbrad
26 May 2016
Read Panmure Gordon & Co's note on Savannah Petroleum, out this morning on Research Tree "Following an eventful year, Savannah reported a loss of US$7.9m for FY15 and had cash and net cash at 31 December of US$7.8m. The company expects to update on the potential reverse take-over transaction over the course of the next month. Savannah anticipates a return to operational activity in 2H16 including the commencement of 3D seismic acquisition focusing on the R3 area of its extensive Nigerien acreage position in the proven Agadem Rift Basin. The company expects to commence drilling activity in 1H17 targeting 10+ explo..."
Doodlebugger
11 Jan 2016
Reverse Takeover Anybody know anything? Reverse take over of what? Any ideas?
FoxRed
06 Jan 2016
SAVP on Panmure Gordon's 2016 Conviction List Guys - please see below from Panmure Gordon."We add Savannah Petroleum to the Conviction List as a potential play on a farm-out of its highly prospective acreage in Niger in the New Year.""A deal early in 2016 should give the shares a sharp push and there is no pressure on the balance sheet from current low oil prices.""Farm-out to release value."They continue to place a BUY recommendation on the shares - Target Price of 75p.
FoxRed
17 Nov 2015
Mirabaud - SAVP are a top exploration picks Hi guys,Mirabaud just issued a note naming SAVP as one of their top exploration picks in the sector.Savannah Petroleum - New kids on the blockIn terms of specific stocks, we like AIM-listed Savannah Petroleum for its highly prospective, low cost onshore acreage in Niger’s Agadem basin. As the Africa Oil deal reinforces, Africa’s rift basins are currently an industry sweet spot and with Savannah in its own farm-out talks we see potential for a value enhancing deal.Mirabaud have maintained their BUY recommendation on the Company and placed a target price of 125p on SAVP's shares.
FoxRed
17 Nov 2015
Mirabaud - SAVP are a top exploration pick Hi guys,Mirabaud just issued a note naming SAVP as one of their top exploration picks in the sector.Savannah Petroleum - New kids on the blockIn terms of specific stocks, we like AIM-listed Savannah Petroleum for its highly prospective, low cost onshore acreage in Niger’s Agadem basin. As the Africa Oil deal reinforces, Africa’s rift basins are currently an industry sweet spot and with Savannah in its own farm-out talks we see potential for a value enhancing deal.Mirabaud have maintained their BUY recommendation on the Company and placed a target price of 125p on SAVP's shares.
FoxRed
16 Nov 2015
Panmure Gordon issue BUY note on SAVP Morning all,Pleased to see Panmure Gordon & Co initiate coverage on Savannah this morning.The team have placed a BUY recommendation on SAVP and set a TP of 75p on the Company's shares.
Doodlebugger
12 Nov 2015
Re: Margermarket - SAVP -"Cleaner Wanted" Hi FoxRedLooks like Savannah are posting the equivalent of “Cleaner Wanted” in the corner shop. Really! Who is this source – sounds like a desperate bit of PR by the company to hustle along some very reluctant farm in partners. After all they were meant to be farming out around June. At $42 oil and hardly any profit available on Savannah’s figures looks like oil companies are playing “wait and see”. Why farmin to Niger when you can farm in to already discovered oil in Kenya and produce it at half the price of Niger? (admittedly “not sure when”
. I think oil will have to hit $50 for some one to farm in. We’ll see. I see they are going ahead with the seismic just yet either, waiting for someone else to fund it I guess.
FoxRed
11 Nov 2015
Margermarket - SAVP Savannah Petroleum in talks to close USD 300m Niger licence farmout by 1Q16Savannah Petroleum [LON:SAVP] has seen a variety of international, independent and national oil and gas companies assess data regarding the sale of between 30% and 50% of its interest in the R1/R2 and R3/R4licences in Niger, a source said.If a farminee took a 50% interest in the assets, Savannah would likely look for a carry commitment of around USD 250m and USD 50m cash to cover back costs, the source said. Savannah has spent around USD 100m on development so far, he added.Savannah holds the entire issued equity interest in these licences, with the Niger state retaining the back-in right of 20% of profit oil on R1/R2 and 15% on R3/R4 15%, according to a company presentation.The deal is expected to close within or before the first quarter of next year, the source added.It is understood that Jefferies has been mandated to conduct the farm-out sale process.It is looking for a partner with a strong balance sheet and solid technical experience. Savannah would likely retain operatorship as it has the local knowledge and infrastructure to optimise the field development, he added.The assets have garnered particular attention from Asian entities, with national oil companies such as ONGC [NSE:ONGC] and Petronas amongst those having shown interest, a person with knowledge of the situation said.Proceeds from the farm-out will be earmarked for a 20-to-30 well-drilling campaign on the licences over the next 18-to-24 months and to commission further seismic studies, the source said.R1/R2 is Savannah’s flagship assets and covers around 8,406 square kilometres in south-east Niger. The licence has best estimate gross risked prospective oil resources of 1,191mmbbls, according to a recent CGG[EPA:CGG] re-evaluation.Savannah signed an agreement with the government of Niger for its interest in the R3/R4 PSC on 31 July, according to a company announcement.The farmout process began following this agreement, the source said.Together, R1/R2 and R3/R4 make up 50% of the total Agadem basin acreage, with CNPC holding the remaining 50%, according to Savannah announcements.Savannah trades on the London AIM stock exchange with a market capitalisation of GBP 56m.Savannah and Jefferies declined to comment on any ongoing farmout process. Petronas and ONGC did not respond to requests for comment.
FoxRed
09 Nov 2015
AOI news good for African rift farm-outs Mirabaud: The standout piece of news in the E&P sector today is Africa Oil’s (AOI CN) farm-out deal with Maersk Oil. The shipping giant’s oil arm has agreed to purchase half of Africa Oil primary rift basin real estate (25% of Blocks 10BB, 13T, 10BA in Kenya and 15% of South Omo and 25% of Rift Basin in Ethiopia) for a total consideration of US$845m, comprising US$350m in back costs and a net carry of up to US$495m. The transaction is a significant breakthrough for Africa Oil, enabling it to progress to first oil without requiring further equity and freeing up financial resources to pursue acquisitions at the bottom of the cycle. From a valuation perspective, the terms of the deal highlight the disconnect between the industry and equity markets. As of Friday’s close Africa Oil had an EV of just US$584m while the transaction with Maersk implies a net asset valuation of up to US$1.7bn (on AOI’s assets prior to farm-down) - or around US$5.50 per 2C barrel. Looking more broadly, the deal has positive implications for partner Tullow Oil (TLW LN) which holds an equal position in Africa Oil’s Kenya blocks and has expressed a desire to farm-out its own interest in due course. It also underpins our belief that Africa’s rift basins are something of a sweet spot in the current farm-out market reflecting industry preference for low risk, low cost onshore projects.
FoxRed
15 Oct 2015
Reuters - Niger oil output to increase to 70k bopd by 2018 Reuters - Niger hopes to boost oil output to 70,000 bopd by 2018, minister saysNiger hopes to increase production of crude oil more than three- fold in the next three years as the China National Petroleum Corp ramps up output for export, the deputy budget minister said on Wednesday.Output should rise to nearly 70,000 barrels of crude per day by 2018 from under 20,000 barrels now, Deputy Budget Minister Mohamed Boucha said, once a pipeline built by CNPC comes on-line by the end of 2016. The pipeline will carry crude from the landlocked West African country to a terminal in Cameroon.Boucha told parliament that a planned production rise between 2016 and 2018, combined with an estimated price per barrel of $65.50, would boost state revenues in one of the world's poorest countries."The start of crude oil production destined for export will make production pass from 18 million barrels in 2017 (roughly 50,000 barrels a day) to 25.2 million barrels (70,000 barrels per day) in 2018," the minister said, presenting Niger's 2016-2018 spending plan.All of Niger's current crude output is processed at the CNPC-operated Soraz refinery. The pipeline will allow it to export crude and sharply increase its production.Boucha forecast on Tuesday that Niger's economic growth would slow next year to 5.8 percent from 6.9 percent in 2015.The International Monetary Fund said in September that growth in Niger's gross domestic product would ease to 4.4 percent this year because of a decline in mining and oil production and low agricultural output, then pick up in the following three years.Niger became an oil producer in 2011 through a $5 billion exploration and development agreement with CNPC for the Agadem zone in the east. The Chinese company also owns 60 percent of the Soraz refinery. Niger owns the remaining stake.Crude exports should not be affected by a dispute that has led CNPC to block shipments from the refinery. The dispute involves the price CNPC pays for crude, which was set at $57 per barrel in July. That is well above current world crude prices - Brent crude sold on Wednesday for around $49 a barrel.
FoxRed
30 Sep 2015
HY Results - Upbeat broker notes Afternoon all,Positive set of numbers out this morning, backed up by two notes from Panmure Gordon and Mirabaud.Panmure GordonSavannah Petroleum – Interim Results (SAVP LN, Mkt cap: £60.2m) – PositiveIn the first half 36,949km2 of Full Tensor Gradiometry was flown over the Agadem Rift Basin which has been interpreted, substantial ARB technical database gathered and analysed including modern and legacy 2D and 3D seismic, well logs and evaluation studies. Initial R1/R2 evaluation identified 14 3D seismic backed drill-ready exploration prospects and 37 exploration leads. Post period $36m was raised to acquire the R3/R4 PSC increasing the footprint in the Agadem basin, Gross best estimated risked prospective resources were upgraded to 1,191mmbbls by CGG Robertson due to the inclusion of the resource potential from the Yogou formation in addition to the Eocene. Initial geological evaluation of the new R3/R4 licence resulted in 29 leads identified and preliminary engineering studies and economic modelling completed by management but assessed as reasonable by the CP indicate a full-cycle break even cost of US43/bbl which combines with the update from the Niger Ministry of Energy and Petroleum indicating a likely central case export cost of US$16/bbl. Seismic acquisition planning and tendering work for all licences are expected to be completed in Q4 along with well engineering work on the high grade prospects. Environmental authorisations permitting ground operations on R3/R4 are expected by year end.Management remain confident that a farm in deal will be completed before the end of the year with expectations of a sell-down of 30-50% of Savannah’s interest in the block. With the acreage significantly larger following the R3/R4 acquisition and a greatly enhanced understanding of the licences resulting from analysis of the FTG the attraction for a farm-in partner is growing. The fact that an economically robust monetisation option is also big positive.Mirabaud Securities - 30 September 2015Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) is another to issue H1 results this morning. The financials clearly are of limited relevance, save that the company is well capitalised with US$9m at period end, which, with no material committed costs, is sufficient to see the company through to at least late next year. Looking at the operations, things are progressing well, with seismic acquisition planning and tendering work expected to complete this quarter, alongside well engineering work on the high graded exploration prospects. The recently acquired FTG data continues to be integrated into the subsurface model, which will be used to high grade various leads and prospects. There was no firm news on the ongoing farm out process (which commenced in mid-July), but we understand that the process remains on-track, and the early signs are very encouraging. Although the macro environment remains challenging, low cost projects with material running room are still attracting significant industry interest. While Savannah is not setting itself any deadlines to announce a deal, the ongoing seismic and drilling preparations are clearly testament to its confidence in striking an agreement in the coming months.
Doodlebugger
21 Aug 2015
Re: New presentation and investor Great presentation, but the comment “Break-even oil price of US$43/bbl” must be a little worrying to potential farm-in partners?
