Saga Live Discussion

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gamesinvestor 12 Dec 2017

Possibly the best buy signal you might get!! """On the downside, over-50s specialist Saga was under the cosh after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to 'neutral' saying the fall in its profit guidance is primarily the result of structural rather than cyclical factors and therefore the company is likely to face ongoing challenges."""These guys invariably get everything completely wrong -- or deliberately so in order to massively profit from it.Goldman predicted $200 oil per barrel for 3 years ago and then after issuing a broker note started selling oil futures.All is not as it seemsGames

Thedarkkn1ght 12 Dec 2017

P/E 9; Dividend 7%; OVERSOLD; SP all time low To Jan 2017Revenue £871MGross Profit £449MEPS 14.1pProjected dividend ~ 9.1p yielding 7.2%Loyal customer baseBID TARGET.

sasa43 08 Dec 2017

Re: Sasa43/ My review/rejection fwiw. Helpful assessment there, paddington, thanks.That a competent CEO / stronger management team requirement here, is a 'given', I have to agree. They're out of their depth on the insurance side and I don't see this significant division getting out of the 'mire' for some time, if ever, unless a new broom is brought in. Better be sold?Whether their unrivalled list of 'silver surfers' is sufficient to be relied upon these days is also open to question - being one of them, I'd say our growing awareness of being a 'soft touch' for too long is beginning to gain recognition with a growing awareness of 'tech' by us, these days...My inclination earlier to 'take a view' shortly was based upon exploiting an oversold condition right now which it's increasingly looking like. A recovery punt was all that I had in mind at some point; I don't normally bother with trading but this looked an unusual opportunity if, as I expect, the sp comes back a bit more (post the 'window dressing' pressure I alluded to).A pukka medium / long term investment? No, not for me; I prefer more soundly based situations with less attrition risk attached. It might be bid for (client list, mainly) but that's not sufficient reason to qualify for anything more than the punting angle in my book - sasa.

II Editor 08 Dec 2017

NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: Should fresh money move into Saga? "Is the plunge in mid-cap share LSE:SAGA:Saga overdone or a moment of truth how its 2014 flotation claims were hype? Does the chief executive's buying £99,500 worth at 138.2p reflect value or an attempt to shore up confidence?Down initially 25% ..."[link]

paddington_bear 08 Dec 2017

Sasa43/ My review/rejection fwiw. This has many similarities with the AA, which I also declined after recent plummet. Here also there is massive debt at many times pretax profit, plus it seems the two new ships are not fully funded as an obscure note states debt ratio again will rise when they are delivered.The assets of roughly £2698m include £1538m of intangibles. I couldn’t' calculate present gross debt but nett is around £500m after rescheduling the pile this annum.Despite the hoopla of one stop shopping for the over 50s, this is basically another insurance share on a high rating, with a poor current year due to virtually flat motor premiums. Post Ogden, Esure, Hastings etc surged by over fifth as prices rose sharply, these guys shrank. Home and travel insurance, no one made much on those this year.The management team seem to have achieved little outside reorganising the insurance between underwriting it, reinsurance chunks and the safer no risk braking of the captive audience business, certainly the brand is not seriously being pushed nor new clients recruited.There is potential, there was during the last three years as well. Apart from cruises, the holiday section is hugely deficient in scope and numbers - the grey pound wants more and varied destinations than the existing tired venues. Monarch disaster was overcome by other operators rebooking clients on other airlines/offering alternate holidays...........not really a valid excuse.There are a few “Possibilities” but little traction in non Insurance areas I fear. Chairman retiring, but perhaps a new CEO may be needed to galvanise this.PB dyor.

sasa43 07 Dec 2017

Am also thinking of 'taking a view' here... Given the steep fall of late which does seem excessive but we may not have seen the bottom just yet.What many peeps tend to forget is this time of year. All fund managers review their hldgs as the year draws to close in December; kicking out the duffers / replacing them with the successes to put the best gloss on their y/e performance figs - it's called 'window dressing'...Saga must be in the former category with, possibly, some chunky selling yet to be seen, so the sp could weaken a good bit more, albeit temporarily, as the process is worked through.Ergo, there may well be a better time to buy in the next week or two than currently; just a thought - sasa.

Alan Tittymarsh 07 Dec 2017

CEO digs into his pocket CEO Lance Batchelor spent £99,500 on SAGA shares yesterday, the first major buy by a director in over 2 years. Not sure whether this is just a PI calming exercise rather than any genuine conviction on his part. But it's no small sum. Just like to see 1 or 2 more directors doing similar.Brokers tips. - 06/12. RBC Capital Markets tips SAGA as outperform - target 250p 07/12 - JP Morgan Cazenove downgrades from 215p to 190p.Even the negative JPMC target is way above the current sp? Quite extraordinary!

one4all 06 Dec 2017

sitting not sigging...doh.. ..

one4all 06 Dec 2017

this is now a sigging target for a takeover nice divi, loads of cash in the bank, PE around 9. divi yield around 5.5%.one of the big boys will swoop

II Editor 06 Dec 2017

NEW ARTICLE: Saga shares plummet, but is anyone buying? "Having seen LSE:SAGA:Saga overhaul its brand in favour of a "fresher and younger" image, investors will today be asking what happened to the share price makeover!The sideways performance of Saga shares since its high-profile flotation in May 2014 ..."[link]

FRTEB 06 Dec 2017

Re: worth a punt DS, it's not a good business model to aim to always be the cheapest. Races to the bottom always have casualties. Much better to differentiate your product offering in some way and provide excellent customer service - something that you have already suggested Saga provide. Add in the growing target demographic and the future looks bright for Saga IMHO. This has been on my watch list for ages but the fall this morning makes the chart look very interesting indeed. Worth a punt purely on the technicals never mind the fundamentals but DYOR etc. I put my money where my mouth is this morning (see previous post).

FRTEB 06 Dec 2017

I'm in I think the fall is way overdone FWIW. Good divi and good long term prospects so I dipped my toe in the water earlier this morning with a sizeable chunk at just under 136. Bargain!

Damp Seaweed 06 Dec 2017

Re: worth a punt It seems a bit feeble to blame Monarch for their problems in travel. There are plenty of flights available from other airlines.Insurance is becoming a 'Comparision site' domain and with increasing competence of the 'Silver surfer' Saga can't rely on loyalty form their crinkly customers to buy noncompetitive policies.And please no more junk mail ! ............what a was of money (though the Royal Mail might be grateful )Don't get me wrong, I like the fact that when you call them, someone answers the telephone. I will pay a small premium for good Customer Service. But at the end of the day they are a seller of insurance and package holidays and should be priced accordingly.

cooperboy 06 Dec 2017

worth a punt got to worth a punt at this price-strong brand, good travel business etc

Alan Tittymarsh 06 Dec 2017

Re: Bottom Fishing The problem is Lance Batchelor who is an utterly useless and incompetent CEO. They need someone there with a bit more spark and business acumen. I see good ole Lance is trying to blame the issue on Monarch Airlines. In which case why haven't other insurance companies taken a hit?

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