gamesinvestor
26 Oct 2015
Nerves [link] wonder if the offer will be firm by Wednesday?Games
Afrosia
22 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? Doesn't appear to be increasing following the big option expiry conspiracy?
gamesinvestor
16 Oct 2015
Re: Sold 3D -- hands up, I was possibly wrong m8 and decided after some consideration (and the $3bn get out clause that I'd over looked) and got back in the other day at close to my sell price plus the hit on another lump of stamp duty.I'm taking the risk this will go all the way + a dividend.[link]
Uncle Doug
15 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? Sorry, can't be pessimistic abt this one - just be patient. Slowly drifting up to £40, day by day, but as 3D pointed out, once options expire this will go up nearer 44. Looking good for next week. Sorry to be greedy but I'm holding. Anyone with SAB in an ISA (no tax on cash receipts) is quids in and will be even more quids in when the deal is done. ABI will make the deal go thru or they pay up 3Bn if it fails. No brainer - fill yer boots.
Afrosia
15 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? I find that in investing pessimism pays. But if we assume that you are correct and the SP would return to, say, £35, then that means that the market is pricing in an even greater probability of the deal failing. Either way, I don't think it changes the crux of the message, which is that the risk/reward ratio is out of kilter and this share is a buy sub £40.
Afrosia
14 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? Sure, but don't expect wisdom...There are essentially two outcomes. Either the deal goes through or it doesn't. If it does go through then we will gain 12% from here (cap gain plus divi). If it doesn't go through then we lose, say, 30% and the share returns to sub £30.The percentage hope that the market is placing on the deal not going through is 55% based on the weighed average of those two returns: (0.55 * -30) + (0.45 * 12) = 11.1 (the current discount)Or you could say the current SP is the weighted average of the two potential SPs which gives 70%
0.3 * 28) + (0.7 * 45)
wisewords
14 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? Afosia: Are you able a bit more detail on your calculations and thinking?
3Dimensional
13 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? price should drift higher next week as options expiry is not until Friday and the bucket shops that bet against clients got this one round their teets, hence suppression of SP so the 40 calls that were peanuts a couple weeks ago expire worthless or with little upside.They can keep it as long as they like, even dropping the price to 37 again would be great, money in the bank as they say 3D (punters 1 bucket shops 0)
wisewords
13 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? Thanks for your response UD.In terms of announcements. I believe the 'deal in Principle' announcement came from SABMiller. Which effectively extended the deadline for another 2 weeks. Do we need to wait for ABI to announce a £44 deal 'for,merly' before we see the SP go up into the 40's?
Uncle Doug
13 Oct 2015
Re: What will drive this Higher? You're right - it's worth £44 but trading at £39.5. I'm holding. Markets are down - people scared to buy. City boys shaking the tree to get the panickers to sell and get a discount price for their clients. ABI will have to pay 3Bn if deal fails so I think a deal will be done. More buyers will come, markets will improve and 5% upside in next few days. ABI shares are up so they dont think they overpaid. Divd next month also. Hold firm for £42 at least - no brainer IMO. Reminds me of Cadburys takeover many years ago.
wisewords
13 Oct 2015
What will drive this Higher? Can anyone give some insight on why th share price is hovering around th 3950 mark and not nearer the 4350-4400 that deal is supposedly set at?I know the deal isn't done yet but the deal has been announced in principle so is it a surprise that these are trading at 11% lower than the deal price?To my own niave brain isn't this an easy opportunity to make 10-11%?
LK Hyman
13 Oct 2015
Re: Still needs to go higher Tejo,"£45 cash should do it with a share alternative with shares that are listed and tradable."Close, but no coconut. The share alternative involves a five year lock up, so not tradeable. This isn't a done deal yet!LKH on the flybridge
LK Hyman
13 Oct 2015
Re: Obvious staregy Tejo,"Diageo is Ok but stodgy."I wouldn't say it was stodgy, m8! They've done a lot of M&A recently, and they're strong in a lot of soft areas, such as having probably the highest proportion of women in their higher ranks of any FTSE company. Dunno why, but that is meant to be a signal for outperformance ... perhaps the few men in the upper echelons spend all their time trying to impress the women with their outperformance I dunno.And I suspect that there is a LOT of fat to be cut from Diageo if anyone like Buffett or Munger is interested in taking a pop at the biggest and best boozeco on the planet, to add to his stodgy food portfolio.LKH on the flybridge
tejo
13 Oct 2015
Obvious staregy The strategy of having earlier bids fail and then coming in with a take out bid was pretty obvious from the start and as I forecast last Wednesday. I had hoped for £45 but happy with this bid and will sell. problem is where to re invest. Diageo is Ok but stodgy.
II Editor
13 Oct 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Belgians pay £70bn for Foster's brewer SABMiller "With just a day to go before being forced either to launch a formal bid, or walk away, brewing colossus Anheuser-Busch InBev appears to have got its man. LSE:SAB:SABMiller, for weeks a reluctant bride, has now told the Stella Artois and Budweiser ..."[link]
