Mome Wrath
06 Apr 2018
Re: time to buy 158 was one of the original "old" lows. It's hit that twice before (or should I now say two times before) also I think it hit 153 in the past.And that, if you think about it logically - all the co's taken over, the focusing on mobile, the cleansing of the systems post Endleman etc, its no. 1 ranking, is just plain ludicrous. There is just no way that Rythm can be valued less than the value it held in it's previous dyslectic state, when with the YuMe acquisition, we are on the brink of generating profits (we believe.)Tosca apparently, are not worried. They're hunkering down with the rest of us waitingfor the market manipulation to end and the market perception to improve.They probably know something we PI mushrooms don't.If circa 158 really is the bottom, then there is a stonking near immediate 50% rise (319)over the horizon with 359 waiting, when reality finally dawns.(And while I wrote this Rythm puts on 3.77%)
ajacko
06 Apr 2018
Re: time to buy ah is this state the obvious time?
shugg1e
05 Apr 2018
Re: time to buy Another new low 15.8p
shugg1e
04 Apr 2018
Re: time to buy lol no its notofficial new low 16.3p
shugg1e
04 Apr 2018
time to buy must be ready to rocket
item club
30 Mar 2018
Re: 480-175p Yes indeed ; if one was ? Hindsight is a great tool !! Oh but remember ..... past performance has no guarantees for the future ..........
shugg1e
29 Mar 2018
480-175p inside 12 months great shareholder value if your short65% fall
WEE WATT
29 Mar 2018
Check out @MktgMark’s Tweet: [link] on pixalate.
Brimach1
23 Mar 2018
Looks like ANZ sorted... ANZ sorted...[link]
Big Bear
21 Mar 2018
Re: Time For The Tin Hats Gremlins again! In the first paragraph the Note on line 3 should have read "Future revenues as per F4 Projections for calendar 2018 and/or Numis forecasts for financial year 2019 (i.e the 12 months to end-March 2019)"Apart from that, I think otherwise okay....The Numis forecast numbers are given and discussed later in the post. For FY2019, the forecast was $487 million sales revenues, as shown later.For reference, the F4 Projections' revenues number for calendar 2018 is similar; my copy of these adding up to $481 million (i.e. $311m + $170m = $481m)And for reference again, when converting to sterling in this post, I used a £/$ exchange rate of 1.40...And 77.5 million RhythmOne shares in issue.
Big Bear
21 Mar 2018
Time For The Tin Hats On any reasonable valuation criteria, the shares look very cheap. One very attractive metric is the ratio of share price to expected future revenues per share…This is now less than 0.4, {i.e. £1.76sp divided by £4.50 sales revenue per share (Note: Revenues as per F4 Projections and/or Numis forecasts for 2018).This lowly value is despite a high and improving gross margin percentage on those revenues, For reasons explained below, I would expect this ‘gross margin percentage’ to trend above 40% on the combined RhythmOne/YuMe business during this calendar year, and beyond. (Note: ‘gross margin’ I mean the cash contribution remaining after we deduct the percentage of revenues we share with our publisher/content partners – in the jargon, this is called ‘cost of sales’ or ‘traffic acquisition costs’ (TAC)}.YuMe has – for several years now - consistently reported gross margins well within that 40 - 50% range – as the colourful bar chart on slide 14 (Gross Margin Trend) from YuMe’s business presentation from last Summer clearly illustrates. Check it out. See: [link] YuMe’s most recent reported gross margin percentage was an impressive 45.5% for their September quarter – that’s well within the historic range shown on the bar chart. Since RhythmOne’s most recent reported gross margin percentage was 38% (as per the half-year results), and trending upwards, (it was up from 34.5%, year-on-year, i.e. a 10% increase in absolute terms) – it seems not unreasonable, IMO, to expect the combined RhythmOne/YuMe business to report a combined gross margin upwards of 40%....I would expect this to be one of the revenue synergies arising from the YuMe acquisition – i.e. gross margins to increase further resulting from the cross-selling of additional high value programmatic services to YuMe’s direct brand partners.If my expectation of a 40% plus gross margin on the combined RhythmOne/YuMe revenues is correct, then we’re looking at a cash flow to share price ratio of less than 1.0 on today’s closing share price of £1.76. That’s great value. In other words, the share price of £1.76 is less than the expected annual cash flow contribution from the sales per share, i.e. it’s less than the gross margin per share. So, to keep the maths simple, let’s look at what calendar 2018 might look like (I’ll use the calendar year, the current R1 share price - £1.76 – is well under half the expected sales per share (as per the F4 RhythmOne/YuMe Projections and/or the Numis revenue projections) – and only about 0.99 of the direct cash contribution per share for 2018…(assumes a 40% gross margin).That’s very, very cheap….It’s a classic turnaround – assuming we can maintain sales at these levels and margins, it’s a bargain. Not only is the current share price well less than half the expected sales revenues per share, it’s now even less than the gross margin cash contribution earned by those sales. (Rather like buying a perpetual £1.76 annuity for less than you get in the first year)Or to put it another way, the current marketcap of £136 million (=$190 million) at the closing share price of £1.76 (and 77.5 million shares in issue) is less than the gross margin on the $487 million sales revenues that Numis is forecasting for FY2019 {Since 40% of $487 million sales revenue = $195 million gross margin}. {And that’s not adjusting marketcap for ‘enterprise value’ ; That’s significant too, since I’m guessing there’s going to be upwards of $25 million cash balances in the year-end consolidated balance sheet…..}.And consider this….The F4 projections showed that a significant proportion of our ‘below the line’ fixed operating expenses (opex) are non-cash items…To be specific, around $28 million of operating expenses annually are itemised as non-cash in those F4 projections – this is the sum that’s clearly shown (by simple addition) in these combined F4 RhythmOne/Y
gerihatric
21 Mar 2018
Re: Reasons To Change The Reporting Year as I read through your hypothesis to change the year end I was thinking along the lines that you then expressed in your final sentence-an AGM query-I agree
shugg1e
20 Mar 2018
Re: 19p old money 18.3p now new lows soonlooks like under 16p will do it old money
shugg1e
20 Mar 2018
19p old money Make no mistake these are at 19p old money and almost at the all time lows i thought this company was on the turn but its been nothing short of a disaster since the merger last summer.i keep going away then coming back several months later hoping to see the kind of rally that blinx used to do but thus far its just heading south 48p to 19p inside a year for an over 60% erosion of shareholder value.they should give themselves a bonus lolf""""ng useless!
Big Bear
19 Mar 2018
Reasons To Change The Reporting Year Should RhythmOne change its statutory reporting period? RhythmOne currently reports a statutory reporting year of 12 months running from the beginning of April in the first year to end-March in the following year. contrast, the great majority of publicly listed companies within media/adtech – whether U.S. or U.K. listed - use the standard CALENDAR year, running from January 1 to December 31, as their statutory reporting year.So, herewith my thoughts explaining how I believe RhythmOne would derive benefit from changing its statutory reporting year from the existing April to March financial year to a CALENDAR year, running from January 1 to December 31.Following the YuMe acquisition, now would, IMO, be a very good time to change RhythmOne’s statutory reporting year to the CALENDAR year. I say that for several reasons. First, I think ex-YuMe shareholders would appreciate such a change, since YuMe (unlike RhythmOne) had always used the calendar year as its statutory reporting year (as did Perk). Second, eMarketer uses the calendar year for all its widely quoted and respected forecasts for digital ad spend in the industry, so comparisons with those would be easier on the eye. Third, as you know, those F4 forward projections to 2021 were expressed in CALENDAR years for both the stand-alone RhythmOne, and for the stand-alone YuMe. So it would make the comparison of the actual RhythmOne results in future years with those F4 projections a little easier…(For instance, the Numis forecasts that gerihatic has quoted in his recent post today (thanks geri!) are for RhythmOne’s FINANCIAL years to 2020 – but the F4 RhythmOne Projections to 2021 are for CALENDAR years. So, IMO, to avoid unnecessary confusion all round, it’s my opinion that RhythmOne should bring its statutory reporting period into line with most others in the industry by choosing the CALENDAR year for its statutory reporting period for future years.In my opinion, the most important argument for using the calendar year is that it would put us in line with most of the listed public companies in the media/adtech space, both in the U.K. and the U.S. – To expand on this point….In the U.S. media/adtech sector we have FaceBook, Google, Twitter, Trade Desk, Rubicon Project, IAC (i.e. the InterActive Corp, owns over 150 top website brands), Criteo, Groupon, Snapchat, Yahoo Japan, Yelp, and others, including the public quoted behemoths such as Time-Warner, Alliance Data Systems (which owns Conversant), Verizon (which owns AOL), Comcast, Charter Communications – EVERY ONE OF THESE publicly listed companies uses the CALENDAR year ending December 31 for its statutory reporting. (Indeed, I struggled to find anyone in the States, within this sector, who used a non-standard ‘financial’ year for their statutory reporting, as we do! However, that said, there are two notable exceptions: The mighty Apple uses a September year-end, and Microsoft’s year-end is also non-standard – they use a June year-end!).It’s a similar story in the U.K. In the media sector, EVERY ONE of these publicly listed companies - ITV, STV {Note: That’s Scottish TV Plc!), Ascential, Centaur Media, Pearson, Trinity Mirror, and WPP - use the CALENDAR year for their statutory reporting…But I did find two notable exceptions – namely, SKY – which (like Microsoft in the States) uses the 12 month period to end-June as its statutory reporting period; and Entertainment One, (i.e. eOne for short, it’s a Canadian/UK company), which, like ourselves, still uses the year ending March 31 for its statutory reporting..{And guess what? Our very own non-executive director, Mark Opzoomer, Chairman of RhythmOne’s Audit Committee is also a non-exec with Entertainment One, where he also acts as Chairman of their Audit Committee!}.The fact is: The great majority of publicly listed media/adtech companies in the U.S. and U.K. use the CALENDAR year as their statutory reporting year. With the few notable exceptions
